a blast from the past...

[Jish]

So the weekends are slow for news and I was poking around on The Digital Bits and found this in the archives of Bill Hunt's column.

This is from May 2005 but I think it reads as is if could have been written today - very well thought out!

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/mytwocentsa103.html

I'm going to go out in a limb right now and post something that some of you may consider a bit controversial. But I think the writing is on the wall. I think the format war is over before it's even begun, and the Toshiba/HD-DVD camp is toast.

Why? You know how many PlayStation 2 systems Sony's sold since that unit's launch? 87 million. Let me repeat that. 87 million. 1.5 million were sold in the PS2's first month of availability alone.

Now, let me follow this up by noting that Microsoft's newly announced Xbox 360 system is going to run on existing DVD media (for games and movies), but will not support HD-DVD format discs.

All of this is about what we expected, based on rumors as to what Sony and Microsoft were planning for their systems. But it's a very bad omen for the HD-DVD camp. Sony, within a few months of the time they expect to launch movies on their Blu-ray Disc format, is going to have several million machines on the market capable of playing them. Tens of millions by the end of the first year. And each of those machines is going to be more than capable of driving high-end HD displays. What is the HD-DVD camp going to have in that timeframe? Not even a fraction of that number of dedicated players.

Sony has the two biggest PC manufacturers in the world, Dell and HP, on their side, along with Apple, Hitachi, LG, Matsushita, Mitsubishi, Pioneer, Royal Philips, Samsung, Sharp and Thompson. Plus they've 20th Century Fox, Disney, Sony Pictures (Columbia TriStar) and now MGM in their camp... AND they've got the PS3 on the way.

Toshiba has Microsoft in their camp, sort of. On the hardware front, they have NEC, Sanyo and Memory-Tech. And in Hollywood, they've got Warner, New Line, Paramount and Universal.

Think about that. If I'm a high-end, home theater-phile, early adopter type, am I going to be jonesing to get my hands on a Sanyo or Toshiba HD-DVD player, or a Sony or Pioneer Blu-ray Disc player (or a PS3)? Are you kidding me?

This thing is over. It's done. Toshiba and Warner Bros. just haven't figured it out yet.

There's word today (including this story at Technology News) that Toshiba is reluctant to back down from support of its 0.6 mm data layer format (DVD/HD-DVD) for fear of angering its supporters in the DVD camp, some of which have already been gearing up to replicate discs based on 0.6 mm. Here's my take: Get the hell over it, folks.

Reuters is now reporting that the presidents of both Toshiba and Sony are going to meet to try to break the stalemate in the format unification talks (reported yesterday). That's a very good thing, but Toshiba had better open their eyes and realize that a unified format based on the 0.1 mm Blu-ray Disc structure is probably the BEST thing that can happen for them. Because I'm telling you right now, if Toshiba backs away completely and this format war DOES happen, Toshiba's going to lose big. By working with Sony now, and making a few concessions to unite these two formats, Toshiba is going to be in a much better position a couple of years from now than they would be if they try to go it alone with HD-DVD.

[BStecke]

Haha, that's funny. I didn't get into the game when Warner was still HD DVD exclusive (although that might be why, when the first word of the format war got out, I was leaning toward HD DVD because of Batman Begins and a few other favorites). How things change. Or in some case, don't. I like to go back in archives sometimes and see what people said about evolving situations, just to see who had the right idea and who was way off base. Good way to kill time.

[blublublu]

Originally Posted by Jish

So the weekends are slow for news and I was poking around on The Digital Bits and found this in the archives of Bill Hunt's column.

This is from May 2005 but I think it reads as is if could have been written today - very well thought out!

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/mytwocentsa103.html

Didn't quite work out as Bill expected though.

PS3 clearly put Blu Ray in front, but I suspect even Bill Hunt would have difficulting confidently delcaring a winner at this point. Too much in play and too close to call... Let's see what the next few months brings.

[WickyWoo]

PS3 clearly put Blu Ray in front, but I suspect even Bill Hunt would have difficulting confidently delcaring a winner at this point. Too much in play and too close to call... Let's see what the next few months brings.

Except that you're watching the game on tape delay (read that as you may)

[Blu-dock Saint]

Originally Posted by blublublu

Didn't quite work out as Bill expected though.

PS3 clearly put Blu Ray in front, but I suspect even Bill Hunt would have difficulting confidently delcaring a winner at this point. Too much in play and too close to call... Let's see what the next few months brings.

The whole paramount thing did not do much at all, in fact it went to show that certain directors such as Ridley want there movies on Blu, so if anything it somewhat helped us. I think that not much has changed and that the next few months won't change much either, Blu's still ahead, still will be ahead.


p.s. Wicky your comments give me a good chuckle now and then.

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by Blu-dock Saint

The whole paramount thing did not do much at all, in fact it went to show that certain directors such as Ridley want there movies on Blu, so if anything it somewhat helped us.

That's a good point. The huge backlash to the Paramount deci$ion, plus some well-known directors publicly spaking out in favor of Blu-ray, may have negated much of the positive impact HD DVD was hoping to have from the news.

enjoy
gandalf

[P3rv3rt B3ar]

Originally Posted by blublublu

Didn't quite work out as Bill expected though.

PS3 clearly put Blu Ray in front, but I suspect even Bill Hunt would have difficulting confidently delcaring a winner at this point. Too much in play and too close to call... Let's see what the next few months brings.

Ehhhh It was game over for the red player on the day PS3 hit the shelves...

Even if u watch world tru red lenses it still is blu.

[dobyblue]

I think Blu-ray is still clearly looking like being the overall winner.
The numbers for Q4 when we look at them sometime in January will be embarrassing for HD DVD fans, Toshiba, Paramount and Universal.

[dialog_gvf]

For sure, production yields and TL51 potential are going to count about ZIP to the Q4 battles.

It's going to be a few ultra-cheap hard to find HD DVD players + remnants of Transformers, versus some reasonably priced Blu-ray players available everywhere + the PS/3 + an ever increasingly impressive Q4 movie list for BD.

No contest.

[Chris Gerhard]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

I think Blu-ray is still clearly looking like being the overall winner.
The numbers for Q4 when we look at them sometime in January will be embarrassing for HD DVD fans, Toshiba, Paramount and Universal.

The fourth quarter numbers will be better for HD DVD than the second quarter numbers and that poor showing didn't bother them at all. It will also likely be better than the third quarter numbers. I don't believe the HD DVD supporters ever get discouraged, there is some reason other than having a worthwhile marketshare that keeps Toshiba in the game.

Chris

[P3rv3rt B3ar]

Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard

I don't believe the HD DVD supporters ever get discouraged, there is some reason other than having a worthwhile marketshare that keeps Toshiba in the game.

Chris

Yeah they got jobless potsmoking gamers who are too dumb to realise theyre not supposed to buy movies!

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard

I don't believe the HD DVD supporters ever get discouraged, there is some reason other than having a worthwhile marketshare that keeps Toshiba in the game.

You got that right. They never stop posting here.







__________________
I've come here to kill fud and chew gum and I'm all out of dark red chewing gum



..The closer one is to death, the more they struggle... - kindredwolf