How Long Till BD Takes Up More Floorspace Than DVD?

[No1Mugster]

How long do you reckon? Personally I think 2-3 years.

At the moment in my local HMV, Tesco, ASDA and Morrisons. About 80% of space dedicated to movies is filled with DVD's leaving about 20% for BD's.

I was just wondering how long people think it will take for BD to dominate places like HMV?

[tuxqi]

I don't know... I see it as 50:50 for shelf space in 2 years.. will still be lots of things that will never be released on BD.

[adamhopelies]

I don't think it ever will do to be honest.

[GrinwithoutaKat]

I'm not sure it will. Blu-Ray still has only a very, very small marketshare, and I'm not sure what could happen for it to suddenly get the huge surge it would need to do that.

[huntauk]

Who knows, but after a slow start to the year from now until July some great titles are in the pipeline, so we have to boost its cause and keep on buying, and in doing so try to convert as many others as possible. Surely as more people buy HD TVs more will turn to blu? However the fact dvds are in general so cheap will probably keep the sd Market running strongly for at least another 3-5 years

[KingSimba]

It would also probably help if the prices would come down quicker, like when they lower the DVD version of a film, lower the Blu-ray.

[No1Mugster]

Originally Posted by huntauk

Who knows, but after a slow start to the year from now until July some great titles are in the pipeline, so we have to boost its cause and keep on buying, and in doing so try to convert as many others as possible. Surely as more people buy HD TVs more will turn to blu? However the fact dvds are in general so cheap will probably keep the sd Market running strongly for at least another 3-5 years

I don't know anyone who has a SD TV any more, I mean not even a 14" portable in spare room! But it does amaze me how many of those people have no way of viewing HD content i.e. BD or Sky HD. Whenever I try to explain they just glaze over. It seems a lot of people aren't interested which could mean BD never outsells DVDs.

[chip75]

It's an interesting question, shame I can't give an interesting answer.

It will take a good few years I'd imagine. It's still an expensive hobby compared to DVD collecting. My local HMV has expanded slightly but they have loads more DVD's. Their war, horror and anime DVD section is bigger than the BD section. Supermarkets are trying hard but I have more Blu-rays than my nearest ASDA! To a lot of people a movies just a movie it doesn't matter if it's SD or HD.

With DVD's still going strong and the Triple and Double Plays still adding to peoples collections it might never happen.

[Jezza]

Until there is a really major release that'll make the majority of consumers stop and look at the advantages of Blu-ray over DVD, I can't see it becoming dominant just yet. Because with the current ecconomy many aren't going to be bothered about switching to BD, even if they do have an HD television, as SD is still watchable enough to most and to them that's the best PQ you're ever going to get.

I think BD was launched at an unfortunate time, as of course only a couple of years after it first came out the banks collapsed, so when it started to become really popular, and theoretically afforadable, people didn't actually have the money to spend on it, otherwise I could see BD being the dominat format by the end of the next year. As it is, I can't see it being so until 2014 at the earilest, when BDs themselves will be almost as cheap as DVDs, BD players will be only a bit more than DVD players and at least 75% of households in the UK have HD televisions.

As it is, the dominant future of Blu-ray at the moment is not something that'll happen soon.

[tuxqi]

There are still 100s if not a few 1000 of people in the UK who still only have VHS...

I Know a man who still has a b/w tv license and there's only about 200 or so people left with one..


for a lot of families BD players are still luxury items so I doubt BD will be more than 50% in 2 years..

[Sithlord75]

Supermarkets selling dvd's for £2-£3 doesn't help matters either as most people will just pick them up instead.

Plus there's still the countless " it doesn't look any different than dvd to me" people out there.

[DaveSimonH]

Once blu-ray players are regularly £20-£50 I think it will even out to 50:50 but in terms of a takeover I'd say it will take a good 5-10 years. Even then I think it will have to be the manufacturers scaling down DVD production affecting the change, not consumers.

[chip75]

Originally Posted by Sithlord75

Supermarkets selling dvd's for £2-£3 doesn't help matters either as most people will just pick them up instead.

I'm one of those. We're collectively known as cheap bastards....

[adamhopelies]

Originally Posted by No1Mugster

I don't know anyone who has a SD TV any more, I mean not even a 14" portable in spare room! But it does amaze me how many of those people have no way of viewing HD content i.e. BD or Sky HD. Whenever I try to explain they just glaze over. It seems a lot of people aren't interested which could mean BD never outsells DVDs.

Its not just that, those of us that are ready and willing to buy Blu simply don't have the option of doing so due to the array of titles available. Out of all of the films I've bought so far this year 18 are Blu-ray, and 36 are DVD, none of which are available on Blu-ray. Blu-ray is fine if you want to buy Tron Legacy, but what if you're seeking out a copy of Un Flic by Jean-Pierre Melville? Or Memories Of Murder? Or even new releases like Two In The Wave or The Illusionist? Thats the biggest problem for me now, as I've gone through that whole initial double dip period which saw me buy 4 or 5 Blu-rays a week.

[Sithlord75]

Originally Posted by chip75

I'm one of those. We're collectively known as cheap bastards....

Shame on you !

[adamhopelies]

Originally Posted by Jezza

Until there is a really major release that'll make the majority of consumers stop and look at the advantages of Blu-ray over DVD, I can't see it becoming dominant just yet.

Indeed. I still think that the winter of 2008 was the formats best chance of really making ground, with The Dark Knight, Wall-E and Iron Man all released within a couple of weeks of each other. I kinda thought then that if it didn't happen then that it wouldn't ever.

[KingSimba]

I think the Blu-ray debut's of the Star Wars saga, LOTR Extended Trilogy and Jurassic Park will help alot this year, as pheraps alot of the fans of those franchises will purchase a Blu-ray player just to see those in high-def but then will end up buying other Blu-ray's in the future.

I think last year it was reported Blu-ray sales had increased something like 55% in the UK since 2009 so it will be interresting to see how much it's increased at the end of this year.

[menaceuk]

Originally Posted by GrinwithoutaKat

I'm not sure it will. Blu-Ray still has only a very, very small marketshare, and I'm not sure what could happen for it to suddenly get the huge surge it would need to do that.

It will eventually when you start to see the sales like DVD has.In most sales in most stores you can buy 3 or 4 DVD's for the price or less than a single Blu-ray.

[Jezza]

Originally Posted by MichaelB

The last title is out on Blu-ray in France. The film has virtually no spoken content of any significance, so even if it doesn't have subtitles you should be fine.

But I completely agree with your wider point - the simple fact is that most of the stuff I'm interested in isn't currently out on Blu-ray, and I suspect a substantial majority of that never will be. Either decent mastering materials don't exist at all, or it'll be too expensive to create a decent BD given the likely size of the market, or it's not worth upgrading anyway (because it was shot/mastered on SD video to begin with).

Well, eventually Blu-ray will end up like DVD and almost every movie ever made will be released. The ones you want may not be available yet, but they will surely come out in time.

[Jezza]

Originally Posted by adamhopelies

Indeed. I still think that the winter of 2008 was the formats best chance of really making ground, with The Dark Knight, Wall-E and Iron Man all released within a couple of weeks of each other. I kinda thought then that if it didn't happen then that it wouldn't ever.

I think winter 2008 was the time when the average consumer started to actually take note of Blu-ray and started looking into what it's about, but it was just still too early for people to make the switch.

Of course, many thought Avatar would be the one to make everyone make the change from DVD to BD, but that was a year ago and there still doesn't seem to be much change.

It seems to me that eventually studios will stop producing DVD-only releases and focuse more on combi-packs, so as to make people own the Blu-ray disc. Then once that happens consumsers will say "well I now have a Blu-ray, I might as well get a player". After that of course more BD players will be sold and eventually it'll become the dominat format.
I however don't think the combi-pack will ever die, as some will stick by their guns and go with good ol' fashion DVD; but there's more of a chance that once there aren't DVD-only releases that there will be even more BD-only releases.

Originally Posted by KingSimba

I think the Blu-ray debut's of the Star Wars saga, LOTR Extended Trilogy and Jurassic Park will help alot this year, as pheraps alot of the fans of those franchises will purchase a Blu-ray player just to see those in high-def but then will end up buying other Blu-ray's in the future.

I think last year it was reported Blu-ray sales had increased something like 55% in the UK since 2009 so it will be interresting to see how much it's increased at the end of this year.

I think fans of those franchise will certainly buy BD players just for them, but I can't see the average consumer wanting something like Star Wars on Blu-ray, because they've been released countless times before and to them this is just another release. So, whilst those releases will help, I don't think they'll make a dramatic change in the dominace of Blu-ray.