Forrester: Format war is Blu-ray's to lose

[Iron Man]

In its third annual report on the state of the next-gen format war, Forrester Research reiterated its long-held belief that Blu-ray will ultimately prevail over HD DVD, though more guardedly than in years past.

The market research firm has issued two previous reports on the high-format war, both predicting that Blu-ray would emerge victorious in its fight with HD DVD for next-gen supremacy.

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This year, on the heels of Paramount's announcement that it would support HD DVD exclusively, Forrester now says that although Blu-ray remains in a better position than its rival, the format's backers will need to change strategy or risk losing their edge.

Specifically, Forrester analyst J.P. Gownder says that if Blu-ray fails to offer a viable hardware model at the $250 price point by Christmas 2007 and doesn't employ more aggressive promotional tactics to counter HD DVD's recent momentum, it could open itself to a possible upset defeat at the hands of HD DVD.

Gownder goes on to say that Blu-ray's failure to land a knock-out blow over the past year means that the format war will continue for at least 18 more months.

Established in 1983, independent research firm Forrester analyzes technology change and its impact on business, consumers, and society.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...s_to_Lose/1005

[powerSURG]

Interesting indeed. Good find.

I hope the BDA is listening and really pushes price cuts for this coming season.

[WickyWoo]

The price point he's wrong on

The PR front he's right on.

[E-Dogg]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

The price point he's wrong on

The PR front he's right on.

I agree. I think that if we can get a player like the announced Denon with 2.0 between $400-500 than we would see a lot more sales of stand alone Blu-Ray players.

[vw mofo]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

The price point he's wrong on

The PR front he's right on.

I'd have to say I disagree with you... Keep in mind there will be $199 or less HD DVD players by Christmas. Whether they're any good or not is an entirely different story and is irrelevant...

BD NEEDS a sub $300 player and the closer to $200 the better.

[lch]

Originally Posted by vw mofo

I'd have to say I disagree with you... Keep in mind there will be $199 or less HD DVD players by Christmas. Whether they're any good or not is an entirely different story and is irrelevant...

BD NEEDS a sub $300 player and the closer to $200 the better.

any proof that 199 player is coming ? all you can state is fud from other 'sources'.

and why even when bd player is more expensive, they still selling more than hd player and on the rise still ?

[CAB]

I am eagerly awaiting updated numbers showing BD and HD DVD standalone sales. I hope they show BD continuing to outsell the Toshiba. I do not believe that early adopters are so much about best price. Hell, I spent close to $1500 for my first player and will be spending another $1200 when I replace it in early '08. News of the HT installers choosing Blu-ray is great news and confirms my belief that quality and a variety of hardware manufacturers is key to success.

Articles that point to price first are leaving many larger factors out of the complete equation.

[vw mofo]

Originally Posted by lch

any proof that 199 player is coming ? all you can state is fud from other 'sources'.

and why even when bd player is more expensive, they still selling more than hd player and on the rise still ?

Venturer HD DVD Player to Ship in Time for 2007 Holiday Sales

MSRP on these things IS $199 according Robert at Value Electronics who plans to sell them.

[Bullseye]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

The price point he's wrong on

The PR front he's right on.

I disagree. Its the only stick the HD-DVD camp can fire at the BD camp. If there is to be a BD player in everyones living room then someone is going to have to produce a cheap player.

Where does Sanyo stand on this format war. They produce relatively cheap players.

[w_tanoto]

BDA is indeed needs to do something about price of players. Most of people like bargain price. I personally would go with well-known brand even if it is more expensive, but think about others as well

[oscar_in_fw]

Can anyone even build a Blu-ray player with manufacturing costs approaching $200 or less at this point in time ? I have my doubts. Maybe they can but are keeping the prices up until the Venturer appears.

The other dynamic is which retail outlets will have Venturer's to sell ? Will Wal-mart bring them in (they've denied it so far) ? And will the low-end customers buy it if they know the movies will run $30 and they won't be able to play Sony/Fox/Disney Blu-rays ?

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by vw mofo

Venturer HD DVD Player to Ship in Time for 2007 Holiday Sales

MSRP on these things IS $199 according Robert at Value Electronics who plans to sell them.

And pretty much no one of significance will be stocking them, unless your prepared to buy online.

$399 would be a good price point for BD, sub $350 would be great.

[Manco]

Originally Posted by vw mofo

I'd have to say I disagree with you... Keep in mind there will be $199 or less HD DVD players by Christmas. Whether they're any good or not is an entirely different story and is irrelevant...

BD NEEDS a sub $300 player and the closer to $200 the better.

It does not matter if the HD-DVD player is free. Low pricing of hardware is completely irrelevant and and the cheaper the players get the more it works "against" you. If economically speaking, you can only afford a $199 player you cannot afford a ton of software titles priced at $25-$32 retail. You also cannot afford a HDTV bigger than say 32" 720P where HDM would make any significant difference any way. We have got to get off this focus of hardware pricing. Consumers that can only afford $199 HD-DVD players will stick with DVD simply out of economics. That is why the BDA is playing it smart and not low-balling the price of BR players. What you should be more worried about is the $400 Toshiba that is a TRUE 1080P player. That is the enemy.

Who the hell walks out of BestBuy with a $3000 plasma and then says "oh crap... I've got to go get a cheapo $199 disk player"?

[bdrex28]

Originally Posted by Manco

It does not matter if the HD-DVD player is free. Low pricing of hardware is completely irrelevant and and the cheaper the players get the more it works "against" you. If economically speaking, you can only afford a $199 player you cannot afford a ton of software titles priced at $25-$32 retail. You also cannot afford a HDTV bigger than say 32" 720P where HDM would make any significant difference any way. We have got to get off this focus of hardware pricing. Consumers that can only afford $199 HD-DVD players will stick with DVD simply out of economics. That is why the BDA is playing it smart and not low-balling the price of BR players. What you should be more worried about is the $400 Toshiba that is a TRUE 1080P player. That is the enemy.

Who the hell walks out of BestBuy with a $3000 plasma and then says "oh crap... I've got to go get a cheapo $199 disk player"?

I completely agree with your post.

[vw mofo]

Originally Posted by Manco

It does not matter if the HD-DVD player is free. Low pricing of hardware is completely irrelevant and and the cheaper the players get the more it works "against" you. If economically speaking, you can only afford a $199 player you cannot afford a ton of software titles priced at $25-$32 retail. You also cannot afford a HDTV bigger than say 32" 720P where HDM would make any significant difference any way. We have got to get off this focus of hardware pricing. Consumers that can only afford $199 HD-DVD players will stick with DVD simply out of economics. That is why the BDA is playing it smart and not low-balling the price of BR players. What you should be more worried about is the $400 Toshiba that is a TRUE 1080P player. That is the enemy.

Who the hell walks out of BestBuy with a $3000 plasma and then says "oh crap... I've got to go get a cheapo $199 disk player"?

I also agree for the most part. However, do not underestimate the power of bargain shoppers! Look what happens on Amazon anytime you can get an A2 for ~$200 with a couple free movies...

There's no reason blu shouldn't cash in on something similar!

[w_tanoto]

Originally Posted by Manco

It does not matter if the HD-DVD player is free. Low pricing of hardware is completely irrelevant and and the cheaper the players get the more it works "against" you. If economically speaking, you can only afford a $199 player you cannot afford a ton of software titles priced at $25-$32 retail. You also cannot afford a HDTV bigger than say 32" 720P where HDM would make any significant difference any way. We have got to get off this focus of hardware pricing. Consumers that can only afford $199 HD-DVD players will stick with DVD simply out of economics. That is why the BDA is playing it smart and not low-balling the price of BR players. What you should be more worried about is the $400 Toshiba that is a TRUE 1080P player. That is the enemy.

Who the hell walks out of BestBuy with a $3000 plasma and then says "oh crap... I've got to go get a cheapo $199 disk player"?

well, but people that don't know about it will choose the cheaper player believing that it will play High definition (1080p). Some good trick from HD DVD side.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by vw mofo

I'd have to say I disagree with you... Keep in mind there will be $199 or less HD DVD players by Christmas. Whether they're any good or not is an entirely different story and is irrelevant...

BD NEEDS a sub $300 player and the closer to $200 the better.

Why? HD DVD has been less than $250 for months and has fallen behind BD stand-alone sales. How does driving a bunch of people who are only willing to spend $250 on a player get $20-$40 discs sold?!

Bottom line, anyone so price sensitive that $250 is a sale when $400 is not, will not be a factor in disc sales.

Gary

[BigB88]

Originally Posted by Manco

It does not matter if the HD-DVD player is free. Low pricing of hardware is completely irrelevant and and the cheaper the players get the more it works "against" you. If economically speaking, you can only afford a $199 player you cannot afford a ton of software titles priced at $25-$32 retail. You also cannot afford a HDTV bigger than say 32" 720P where HDM would make any significant difference any way. We have got to get off this focus of hardware pricing. Consumers that can only afford $199 HD-DVD players will stick with DVD simply out of economics. That is why the BDA is playing it smart and not low-balling the price of BR players. What you should be more worried about is the $400 Toshiba that is a TRUE 1080P player. That is the enemy.

Who the hell walks out of BestBuy with a $3000 plasma and then says "oh crap... I've got to go get a $199 disk player"?

I don't agree, although I don't think Blu should go below a $325 price point, I do think they need to at least be in the ballpark. I do not think Blu should go with a "under $200" player however. The reasoning behind a lower price point for stand-alone players is that Blu can say, we are priced at $325 or $350 and our player is more advanced then that of the $199 HD-DVD counterpart - just being more price competitive. In addition, people will gravitate to lower priced players simply to save $$ so they can buy other things or more HD titles (Opportunity costs). What the BDA should do is recommend to the Blu manufacturers to offer a lower priced stand-alone player and get Sony to lower the PS3 to a competitive price point with the stand-alones, perhaps $50-$75 more, something like $350 for a Blu Ray stand-alone and $399-$425 for a PS3 will bring in a lot more to the Blu column.

[jon s]

I agree with the article. I avidly support blu-ray, but sales numbers are the bottom line. I have friends at several retail stores who now say that HD-DVD players outsell blu-ray two to one. Movie sales seem to prove that HD-DVD is making a surge. At present, I see no Blu-Ray players under $500 being released during the holiday season this year. OTOH, HD-DVD still has a current price advantage at $300. The holiday season is still a couple of months away and every day, HD-DVD seems to be chipping away against Blu-Ray.

Universal releases a lot of movies every week on HD-DVD, even though the majority of them are older titles. Paramount and Dreamworks add some clout with Shrek 3 and Transformers. Warner also releases a lot of movies on HD-DVD which does not help the Blu-Ray camp.

Meanwhile, Blu-Ray studios are still in a chaotic state. First, Fox stops releasing titles for several months. Now that they announced a return, they fumble the ball and screw up their releases, postponing some till next year. Sony seems to be content to release a few paltry (and old) titles here and there. Disney who has clout is releasing only a few mainstream titles on Blu-Ray. I mean, Chicken Little and Meet the Robinsons were really lame movies. Ratatouille and Cars are better but not what you would call blockbusters. But other than that, Disney releases are pretty dismal.

OTOH, the Diehard quadriogy looks promising, but I would not bet the farm on them to pull a lot of people into the Blu-Ray side. The Harry Potter films are great but that's going both ways from Warner (and where is the Matrix movies, Batman Begins?). People keep saying, why not Star Wars? Well, George Lucas is in no rush to release his crown jewels to only a couple hundred thousand sales.

Face it, the high definition DVD market is too small right now to warrant some films to be released. The only way I can see for HD-DVD to raise the white flag is if Warner commits to Blu-Ray only and right now, they see the grass is greener on both sides of the fence. They do not seem to realize that if there was only one format, more people would jump off the fence which would increase sales quicker in the long run.

[Xerious]

Originally Posted by bdrex28

I completely agree with your post.

seconded it... also... the only people i see walking into Best Buy and buying a 3000 TV and asking around for the cheapest HD player would be the uninformed consumer who will jacked into buy HD-DVD (due to associate under-education), Monster Cables, and a service plan about 50% the cost of the TV...

otherwise... EDUCATE YOUR FRIENDS!!!