Blu-ray to be mainstream next year

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Blu-ray to Enter Mainstream Next Year, Says NPD
Posted September 25, 2009 08:13 AM by Juan Calonge
Blu-ray Disc will penetrate the mainstream by next year, according to an analysis of the demographics of set-top player buyers performed by research company NPD. The types of consumers using Blu-ray set-top players were surveyed in February 2008 and then in August 2009. The Blu-ray install base still skews toward the more tech-savvy demographic, but other consumers are jumping in, thanks to pricing and word-of-mouth.

NPD uses five adopter categories: “cutting-edge” consumers, “sensibles” (older people who can afford new technology but don't rush to buy it), “dreamers” (those who want new gadgets but are deterred by price), “neutrals” (people who are unimpressed by technology) and “anti-tech” (those who believe new gadgets are a waste of money).

The most encouraging sign for major Blu-ray acceptance was the progress within the two more mainstream groups: sensibles and dreamers. They are considered vital to a product's sales because they make up about 42% of the U.S. population. In February 2008, they made up just a small fraction of the Blu-ray usage base, at 22% combined. By August 2009, that had increased to 37%. In other words, out of every 100 owners of a Blu-ray player, 37 were “sensibles” or “dreamers.”

The largest group within the BD installed base is still that of cutting-edge consumers, although its predominance has decreased from 64% in February 2008 to 38% in August 2009. Cutting-edge consumers make up just 20% of the US population, not enough to move products into the mainstream.

Blu-ray usage has even increased among the “neutrals” and “anti-tech”, who now make up 24% of the BD user base, up from 14% in February 2008.

“In the last year, we have made great strides toward becoming mainstream, but we're not quite there yet,” said NPD analyst Russ Crupnick. “But going into the holiday season, we are seeing a combination of fairly reasonable price points on hardware and a lot of content. By February, after the holidays, it's going to quickly look more and more mainstream. We are on that path.”

Crupnick says that Blu-ray adoption can be fostered by current format fans showing off their setups to friends and family. NPD research shows that such word-of-mouth is the most powerful way to encourage a Blu-ray player purchase, rather than store demonstrations.

“It can be difficult with demos in stores because there might be kids tugging at you or you're trying to get groceries. It's tough to get that immersive experience,” said Crupnick. “When I am at your house, there is much more opportunity for an immersive experience.”

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Doubt it but would be awesome if it's true.