Predicted attach rates for A2 customers?

[bazie]

So all the lemmings that bought in a 100 bucks.....what do you think the attach rate is going to be.

Formally lets define it as the number of HDDVD's they will buy per month on average.

My guess is 1 or 2 in the first couple weeks. Like transfomers or something. But AFTER that, i would say on average they might get a disk every like several months.

Say (and this is generous I think) 5 HDDVD's a year.

So with 50000 A2's sold at this price (this is the rumous I have heard, who knows if it is true or just FUD...but that might be 50k including the 200 dollars players at CC, amazon etc. ) that means a grand total of 5*50,000 =250,000 disks.

So basically one movie like pirates 3 for one week could cancel the effect of this sale for an entire year.

Anyways, any thoughts on my numbers?