Adoption of BD Accelerates (DEG '12 Report)

[Teazle]

Courtesy of Anthony P

http://www.dvdinformation.com/pressr...NAL_1.8.13.pdf

[vargo]

A report from the same people said Bluray spending was up 20% year-on-year for 2011.

http://www.degonline.org/pressreleas...r_end_2011.pdf

If Bluray is up 10% yoy for 2012 then adoption of Bluray is deccelerating.

[img eL]

Originally Posted by vargo

A report from the same people said Bluray spending was up 20% year-on-year for 2011.

http://www.degonline.org/pressreleas...r_end_2011.pdf

If Bluray is up 10% yoy for 2012 then adoption of Bluray is deccelerating.

And if Blu-ray adoption is up more than 10% for 2013 what would that mean

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by vargo

A report from the same people said Bluray spending was up 20% year-on-year for 2011.

http://www.degonline.org/pressreleas...r_end_2011.pdf

If Bluray is up 10% yoy for 2012 then adoption of Bluray is deccelerating.

Yes growth is slowing. Approximately $360M increase in sales revenue from 2010 to 2011 and approximately $216M increase from 2011 to 2012.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by vargo

A report from the same people said Bluray spending was up 20% year-on-year for 2011.

http://www.degonline.org/pressreleas...r_end_2011.pdf

If Bluray is up 10% yoy for 2012 then adoption of Bluray is deccelerating.

This is not true. If Blu-Ray spending is still up 10% in spite of prices coming down, then adoption can still be growing.

Example:

I sell 1000 Blu-Rays at 10$ per in 2010 to get 10K$.
In 2011 I sell 1500 Blu-Rays at 8$ per to get 12K$ (20% improvement)
In 2012 I sell 2200 Blu-Rays at 6$ per to get 13200$(10% improvement)

The rate of money has shrunk, but the rate of adoption has grown.

[img eL]

How's the growth for HDTV set sell's?

[octagon]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

This is not true. If Blu-Ray spending is still up 10% in spite of prices coming down, then adoption can still be growing.

Example:

I sell 1000 Blu-Rays at 10$ per in 2010 to get 10K$.
In 2011 I sell 1500 Blu-Rays at 8$ per to get 12K$ (20% improvement)
In 2012 I sell 2200 Blu-Rays at 6$ per to get 13200$(10% improvement)

The rate of money has shrunk, but the rate of adoption has grown.

Even that depends on how you look at it. In your example unit sales grew by 50% in 2011 and by slightly less than that in 2102.

According the DEG report people are discussing household penetration grew by what? Seven percent?

That's probably pretty healthy but 'accelerates' sounds like a bit of an exaggeration.

Which is fine. I mean, if you can't exaggerate in a trade press release what's this world coming to.

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by octagon

Even that depends on how you look at it. In your example unit sales grew by 50% in 2011 and by slightly less than that in 2102.

According the DEG report people are discussing household penetration grew by what? Seven percent?

That's probably pretty healthy but 'accelerates' sounds like a bit of an exaggeration.

Which is fine. I mean, if you can't exaggerate in a trade press release what's this world coming to.

Exactly. This is DEG we are talking about. Of course they are going to spin things as positive as they can for a press release when it comes to home entertainment. It is how they get paid. I would expect nothing less, you just have to look at the data and read between the lines.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by octagon

Even that depends on how you look at it. In your example unit sales grew by 50% in 2011 and by slightly less than that in 2102.

It's easy to change the #s so that the % of growth raises too. I was just illustrating the point.

But percentage of growth for # of households is a pretty worthless stat.

[vargo]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

This is not true. If Blu-Ray spending is still up 10% in spite of prices coming down, then adoption can still be growing.

Example:

I sell 1000 Blu-Rays at 10$ per in 2010 to get 10K$.
In 2011 I sell 1500 Blu-Rays at 8$ per to get 12K$ (20% improvement)
In 2012 I sell 2200 Blu-Rays at 6$ per to get 13200$(10% improvement)

The rate of money has shrunk, but the rate of adoption has grown.

No, it hasn't.

2011 - 50% increase in disc sales
2012 - 46% increase in disc sales

Adoption has deccelerated in your example.

Which is fine. I mean, if you can't exaggerate in a trade press release what's this world coming to.

If you say adoption is accelerating when mathematically it isn't, that's not an exaggeration. It's simply wrong. I don't put much heed in a report from a group who makes such a basic error.

[mdm1699]

Originally Posted by octagon

Even that depends on how you look at it. In your example unit sales grew by 50% in 2011 and by slightly less than that in 2102.

According the DEG report people are discussing household penetration grew by what? Seven percent?

That's probably pretty healthy but 'accelerates' sounds like a bit of an exaggeration.

Which is fine. I mean, if you can't exaggerate in a trade press release what's this world coming to.

It's # vs %. 50% (100*1.5) vs now 45% (150*1.45). 50 folks in 2011 year vs 67 folks in 2012. Since we are talking #,000,000s then even more folks are adopting the format..........I think.

[vargo]

Originally Posted by mdm1699

It's # vs %. 50% (100*1.5) vs now 45% (150*1.45). 50 folks in 2011 year vs 67 folks in 2012. Since we are talking #,000,000s then even more folks are adopting the format..........I think.

The key word is accelerate. Just because adoption goes up does not mean it is accelerating.

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by vargo

The key word is accelerate. Just because adoption goes up does not mean it is accelerating.

Yes. I think people are having a hard time understanding the terms growth and acceleration. Blu-Ray is still seeing healthy growth, but that growth decelerated for the first time. Which may not be unrealistic for a format that will be 7 years old this year and caters to people who are willing to pay more for better PQ/AQ.

[ack_bak]

I just checked and it appears DVD growth decelerated after year 5 and overall growth declined by year 9.

Obviously DVD saw much larger growth in terms of revenue and percentages, but DVD also did not have the challenges (economic) Blu had, no did DVD have as many competing technologies and competition on entertainment time (there was no Twitter, Faceboook, video games were not as big as they are now, etc).

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by vargo

No, it hasn't.

2011 - 50% increase in disc sales
2012 - 46% increase in disc sales

Adoption has deccelerated in your example.

No, it hasn't. In what universe is growing by 7000 less than growing by 5000?

You are using the logic that if I'm going 55 MPH and I push the gas to go to 60 MPH, then push the gas to go 65 MPH, the second gas was decelerating because the % from 55 to 60 is bigger than the % from 60 to 65.

In my example the % of acceleration slowed, but I _was_ accelerating.

*EDIT* Put another way, what you are saying isn't that rate of adoption is decelerating, but that the rate of acceleration of adoption is decelerating. Which isn't the same thing.

All of this is pointless technicality anyway. Change the example to this:

1000 at 10$ for 10K$
1500 at 8$ for 12K$
2640 at 5$ for 13.2K$

There, now both the rate of adoption AND the rate of acceleration are growing, and yet the $ % growth is still dropping.

Someday someone will actually interpret the meaning of a post instead of getting caught up on minutae. Probably about 2 seconds before the world is destroyed.

[mdm1699]

Originally Posted by vargo

The key word is accelerate. Just because adoption goes up does not mean it is accelerating.

So I can accelerate from 25 to 60mph but not 60 to 70mph? See above post.

[ack_bak]

Simple question. What is more, $360M or $216M?

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by ack_bak

Simple question. What is more, $360M or $216M?

What does this have to do with adoption rate?

Stop getting hung up on money. Money is only loosely correlated with adoption rate. You need a lot more information to draw conclusions on one based on the other.

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

What does this have to do with adoption rate?

Stop getting hung up on money. Money is only loosely correlated with adoption rate. You need a lot more information to draw conclusions on one based on the other.

Because this is not complicated yet some of you are trying to make it complicated. Since we are talking about the DEG report, we have to stick to what we have. Revenue and percentage numbers. There is no way to take the data we have and claim growth is accelerating. It is not. Because $360M is greater than $216M no matter how you try to slice it.

You cannot make statements that Blu-Ray growth is accelerating by dismissing the only thing we have, the revenue numbers, by trying to claim something else that is not in the report.

Revenue is the benchmark the DEG has reported on dating back to VHS/DVD days. Why would Blu-Ray be different?

If you have Blu-Ray unit sales numbers from 2006 and on (or even 2010 and beyond) then by all means, please share it so we can use that as an adoption rate discussion. If you don't have them, well, stop trying to use them.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by ack_bak

Because this is not complicated yet some of you are trying to make it complicated. Since we are talking about the DEG report, we have to stick to what we have. Revenue and percentage numbers. There is no way to take the data we have and claim growth is accelerating. It is not. Because $360M is greater than $216M no matter how you try to slice it.

You cannot make statements that Blu-Ray growth is accelerating by dismissing the only thing we have, the revenue numbers, by trying to claim something else that is not in the report.

The only problem with your statement, Ack, is that you want to have an entirely different debate.

The important header in the report is this:

"Adoption of Blu-ray Disc Accelerates...As Spending Rises"

So, contrary to what you wrote earlier, there is no spinning here - unless you wish to offer your interpretation to have one. You build your argument on the premise that revenue equates growth as this is the only factor the report addresses. So, your statement would have been correct if the DEG reported that "Adoption of Blu-ray Disc Accelerates Because Spending Rises". As the line appears in the report, the statement highlights the fact that Blu-ray adoption has expanded. To be clear, you could clearly make that statement by claiming that Blu-ray catalog sales have increased without addressing revenue. There is no spinning here. You moved more Blu-ray units (supposedly, as you don't have the exact number), but your total revenue is less.

All in all, growth and acceleration are not the same thing.

Pro-B