A discussion on the future of plasma TV

[dobyblue]

With all the hubbub about the "doomed" plasma market, I think it's important to keep things in perspective and see what the numbers actually say.

Display Search's 2008 numbers show that for the first time ever LCD shipments were down over the previous year, albeit only by 2%. This is likely shortlived due to the economy.

Plasma managed a 10% increase over 2008 in North America with a 28% increase in the 4th quarter.

http://www.displaysearch.com/cps/rde...first_time.asp

AUSTIN, TEXAS, February 12, 2008—As the US economy deteriorated in Q4’08 and concerns about consumer spending for the holidays increased, shipments of TV sets in North America fell 7% to 10.7M units according to preliminary results from DisplaySearch. Retailers were careful to avoid an inventory hangover, so they reduced orders to manufacturers in anticipation of weaker demand. As expected, shipments of LCD TVs, the most popular TV technology, fell on a Y/Y basis for the first time ever, from 8.9M units in Q4’07 to 8.7M in Q4’08. In contrast, shipments of plasma TVs, which are typically cheaper than similarly-sized LCD TVs, increased by 28% Q/Q and 10% Y/Y. The PDP shipment total of 1.3M units was a new record for quarterly shipments.

Some additional highlights for the quarter include

• North America LCD TV shipments increased by 9% Q/Q due to seasonal effects, but excessive inventory heading into Q4’08 and weaker demand during the 2008 holiday season led to the first-ever Y/Y quarterly shipment decline, falling 2% to 8.7M units. This was stronger than the projected 8% decline, however, as aggressive discounting at retail kept sell-through unit volume higher; the impact on revenues will be more severe. Some of the best deals during the holidays were for 40-52” screen sizes, so the 40”+ share of LCD TV shipments rose from 30% in Q3’08 to 37% in Q4’08, as consumers snapped up bargains.
• Plasma TV shipments were expected to be less impacted by increased consumer price sensitivity, given their less expensive price points compared to similar LCD TV sizes and resolutions. However, the holiday season saw stronger-than-expected demand for these sets, as prices for 50” models fell below $1000 for the first time. Plasma TV shipments increased 28% Q/Q and 10% Y/Y to a record of more than 1.3M units, and plasma was the only TV technology to see Y/Y shipment growth in Q4’08.
• Samsung had the #1 overall flat-panel TV unit share for the sixth straight quarter, up to more than 20% for the first time. Samsung’s strong flat-panel TV share can be attributed to success in both LCD and plasma market segments, ranking #1 and #2, respectively. Samsung had the weakest Q/Q growth of the top five flat panel TV brands, but had the second-strongest Y/Y growth and significantly outperformed all other flat-panel TV brands in 2008 as a whole.
• Sony was #2 in combined flat panel TV share at 14.2%, a 3 point share gain from Q3’08, on 29% Q/Q unit shipment growth. Sony sells only LCD TVs in the consumer market, like Sharp, so their combined flat panel TV share is actually only LCD TVs. Sony’s Q4’08 LCD TV unit share was 16.3%, the highest at any time during the past three years.
• Vizio returned to #3 in overall flat-panel TV unit share, increasing from 9.0% to 12.3%, the biggest unit share gain among the top five brands. Strong shipment growth in LCD TVs offset a decline in plasma TV shipments, particularly above 40”. Vizio had the strongest Q/Q shipment growth in LCD TV among the top brands and ranked #3 in both LCD TV and plasma TV technologies.

Display Search also predicts other markets will come in to play outside of the consumer market to provide growth in both plasma and LCD markets, despite overall predictions for both technologies still being down over previous economies.

http://www.digitalsignagetoday.com/article.php?id=21493

As the worldwide economy shifts from consumer to business spending, many advertisers have had their ad dollars cut severely, and are looking to target their message to their new core audience, the B2B buyer. With more business being done locally and more professionals seeking alternate means of transportation to save money, mass transit is becoming more attractive, especially in major metropolitan areas. Dynamic digital displays on rail platforms and other transportation hubs allow advertisers to focus on business professionals without having to rely on mass-media to reach captive audiences.

Conversely, consumers are staying close to home and opting to go to the movies rather than on vacation. This trend is leading many movie theaters to overhaul their signage with electronic menu boards, dual-function electronic displays that can tie into POS systems to help concessionaires promote what is readily available in stock, while allowing advertisements for unrelated products.

In terms of technology growth, both LCD and plasma are set to see year-on-year growth in deployments in commercial spaces. However, production investments in LCD technology and its cost competitiveness against plasma, especially in key 32- to 42-inch sizes, will allow LCD to continue to outpace plasma-based solutions. For larger sizes, however, the battle continues, as plasma has a cost advantage, but new thin bezel LCD displays allow for almost seamless video walls.

So try and ignore the doom and gloom articles, these are the same people forecasting the death of Blu-ray and the PS3 for almost three years.