Real 4k disks - what do you think the rollout timeline will be?

[#Darren]

Any opinions welcomed.

[Crom1]

Complete guess - 1 year away.

[HD Goofnut]

By the middle of 2015.

[Cevolution]

Sony Australia have started heavily promoting this ad for their 4ktv

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVmy2W1mKi0

Anyway... There are comments all over Sony Australia's Facebook page from people who think 4k blu-rays already exist, thinking that the "mastered in 4k" discs are in fact native 4k titles.

[Scorpion Soldier]

Most likely somewhere between 2015 and 2020. Sony and Panasonic are already working on optical discs with a minimum storage capacity of 300GB with the goal to finish development in 2015. Though launching yet another disc-based medium next to Blu-ray may take it a few years to make it viable for consumers, especially since you're gonna need a big enough install-base of users with 4K displays to sell it to.

[erlinmeyer]

continuing the cycle...

DVDs came out in 1996
Blu-rays came out in 2006,
so maybe the next iteration in 2016

[HD Goofnut]

Originally Posted by erlinmeyer

continuing the cycle...

DVDs came out in 1996
Blu-rays came out in 2006,
so maybe the next iteration in 2016

DVDs didn't hit the market until April of 1997 and even then it was extremely limited to large cities. It was end of 1997/early 1998 before we saw DVDs hitting stores everywhere.

[BozQ]

Originally Posted by Cevolution

Sony Australia have started heavily promoting this ad for their 4ktv
Anyway... There are comments all over Sony Australia's Facebook page from people who think 4k blu-rays already exist, thinking that the "mastered in 4k" discs are in fact native 4k titles.

Then Sony Australia's marketing has done their job successfully.

Originally Posted by Scorpion Soldier

Most likely somewhere between 2015 and 2020. Sony and Panasonic are already working on optical discs with a minimum storage capacity of 300GB with the goal to finish development in 2015. Though launching yet another disc-based medium next to Blu-ray may take it a few years to make it viable for consumers, especially since you're gonna need a big enough install-base of users with 4K displays to sell it to.

If Sony and Panasonic has successfully created a new medium to store 300GB of data, we have enough storage space to distribute direct DCPs. Both in 2K and 4K. We don't even need to compress any video or audio.

[UNCMT9]

Years. A lot of people still don't have HDTV's.

[Cevolution]

Originally Posted by BozQ

Then Sony Australia's marketing has done their job successfully.

If Sony's "mastered in 4k" blu-ray line was available and being promoted here then I would agree, but they are not.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by HD Goofnut

DVDs didn't hit the market until April of 1997 and even then it was extremely limited to large cities. It was end of 1997/early 1998 before we saw DVDs hitting stores everywhere.

you are way too US centric. DVD started off in Japan in 1996. April of 97 was the US launch, it was 98 before it hit Europe and 99 before it hit Australia. But a format Launch is a format launch and it means when it is at first available as a consumer product and not when a particular person buys it even if people want to make excuses. So erlinmeyer is right, it was 96 for DVD and 2006 for BD (even though BD also did not launch in all markets at once) as to his guess I have no idea if it is right or not, but it is an interesting observation none the less. Personally I hope it is a bit earlier than that but who knows.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Blu-ray was officially announced on Feb 2, 2002 in Japan, don’t know when they were available for purchase. The early Blu-ray disc were in a caddy.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Blu-ray was officially announced on Feb 2, 2002 in Japan, don’t know when they were available for purchase. The early Blu-ray disc were in a caddy.

but that was not a movie distribution format. And like you said the disks were completely different, no hard coat and so it was in a plastic cady so they would not get damaged. I was talking about the real (official) BD product.

[Brightstar]

I think by 2018 that's when the Dvd format will be dead and blu ray will be dirt cheap

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by #Darren

Any opinions welcomed.

In my opinion, there is some value in these opinion threads as they promote the validation of one’s thoughts through personal expression…which is a driving force behind many forums. Not to mention, if every opinion is considered of equal value, we can easily work with that data (as long as you guys supply a specific time frame, i.e. one year, two years, etc. rather than a range.

And if there are enough contributions with a specific time frame (note to tar heel guy, “years” can’t be plotted ), an industrious fellow (*between jobs*) can then plot MOS (mean opinion score) values, which is, and has been done as a matter of analysis in some technical papers, and from that, then determine a 95% confidence interval. We can then bookmark this thread, and after 4KBD’s do launch, we can have a retrospective look at how accurate this thread was in the first place.

Keep those opinions coming!

[Brightstar]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

In my opinion, there is some value in these opinion threads as they promote the validation of one’s thoughts through personal expression…which is a driving force behind many forums. Not to mention, if every opinion is considered of equal value, we can easily work with that data (as long as you guys supply a specific time frame, i.e. one year, two years, etc. rather than a range.

And if there are enough contributions with a specific time frame (note to tar heel guy, “years” can’t be plotted ), an industrious fellow (*between jobs*) can then plot MOS (mean opinion score) values, which is, and has been done as a matter of analysis in some technical papers, and from that, then determine a 95% confidence interval. We can then bookmark this thread, and after 4KBD’s do launch, we can have a retrospective look at how accurate this thread was in the first place.

Keep those opinions coming!

That sounds like a good idea count me in.

[Jack9909090]

I think the bigger question is if the general public (most of who are not videophiles) will care. Hell Blu-ray hasn't even overtaken DVD's Yet. And now they want to roll out yet another format for a TV that cost a couple of thousand more than getting a 720p/1080p TV for the same size. I think 4k won't take over 1080p for the same reason why Blu-ray's haven't taken over DVD for quite a while now. Because it's cheaper and a lot of people simply don't care.

[vargo]

It's looking increasingly unlikely there will be another physical format.

Revenue from physical formats goes down every year, revenue from digital delivery goes up. According to the recent DEG report, revenue from digital was 36% of total revenue in the first half of 2013.

Revenue from physical media will fall to under 50% of total revenue within three years and under 30% by 2020. Its an ever shrinking market and launching another format to take a small piece of that shrinking market would be pointless.

4K is not going to be the cash-cow that the industry hoped for anyway.

[Skippy Bibble]

Originally Posted by UNCMT9

Years. A lot of people still don't have HDTV's.

Those 'people' are call "Amish"

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by Jack9909090

I think the bigger question is if the general public (most of who are not videophiles) will care. Hell Blu-ray hasn't even overtaken DVD's Yet. And now they want to roll out yet another format for a TV that cost a couple of thousand more than getting a 720p/1080p TV for the same size. I think 4k won't take over 1080p for the same reason why Blu-ray's haven't taken over DVD for quite a while now. Because it's cheaper and a lot of people simply don't care.

I think that in less than 8 hours, the recent opinions are hijacking the opinion queried in the original post which started this thread, before we have a statistically significant sample size to even plot an MOS.

In the spirit of the original post which assumed 4KBD will be a given, if members want to provide some additional digressive opinion, why not offer (in terms of “the rollout timeline”) their insight as to what will be the timeline gap between the BDA announcing clearly that they have decided to offer 4KBD’s and the exactly when the first such disc will debut for the public.

e.g. 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, etc.