Why I think M$ is Barking up the wrong tree.....

[Matt X]

I hope this thread is kosher in this forum (it says "no HDDVD"), but I think this falls under "General Discussion" -
This topic has been discussed alot lately, meaning the motivations/market strategies being pursued by the players in this format war (i.e. M$ supporting HDDVD as a prelude to downloads). I was talking about it w/ a friend who is a fence-sitter, waiting for a victor - he stated he would LOVE to jump in now, but the whole thing seemed petty and stupid to him. When discussing M$'s apparent motivations, he first made a statement - "downloads will NEVER happen" (i disagree, I think they'll happen at least to SOME degree...), then stated that people love to hold/have physical media too much to adopt downloads widely (I think it will acheive niche status at best).
My thought, as Devil's Advocate, was "well, WHY won't it ever happen?" I then looked at it as a child of the 70's where owning physical media really had an artistic peak, in the form of LP's - people LOVED to collect records and care for them and admire album art - basically, they not only invested $$$into the physical medium, they invested TIME.
Why do I mention this generation? because for a long time now the segment of the US population w/the consistently highest disposable income is Middle-Agers. I'm nowhere near middle age (nor near their income , I was at the tail end of that generation), but I think I understand that those who derived pleasure from owning physical media will continue to pursue physical media - I think that's why DVDs became so popular, they provided physical ownership that provided quality that lasted longer than VHS. So that's why I think M$ is Barking up the wrong tree by supporting HDDVD - their ultimate goal of downloads will only reach niche status at best, IMO