CES Keynote Predictions

[stockstar1138]

Jot down what predictions you have for both HD DVD and Blu-ray's keynote speeches. I believe the MAIN difference in the two of them (other than length) is that Blu-ray is not going to go up there and TRY to convince everybody that they are winning the war. They might say a little about their dominance over HD DVD, but I think HD DVD is going to go up their smear FUD and try to convince people that they are in the lead, because the general belief is that they are losing, and they are losing bad. Here is my breakdown

HD DVD

Intro - 5 min.
Current Sales FUD (SALs and Attach ratios, low prices, they will say they are winning, etc.) - 10 min.
Universal (upcoming titles, past sales) - 10 min.
TL51 (this is going to be their center piece, I think their is a 20:80 chance they have it completely done, ready to go and are going to make a spring release, I think their is a 50:50 they have it working on some players and say something like, hey we're really impressed with the compatabliitlity we have seen with TL51, a little more work needs to be done, but we are anticipating a fall release, and a 10:90 chance they scrap it. They are also going to say stuff like, we hope with this new advantage to hd dvd more studios will see the light.) - 15 min.
WB - 10 min.
Region Coding - I think HD DVD is going to talk about this for a while. I think they are going to try to impliment region coding on "selective" releases. They will again say that they hope more studios will come to HD DVD over this. - 10 min.
Paramount - 10 min.
Interactive Features - They are going to go on and on and on about new advanced interactive features, mostly web enabled ones. They will make sure to say that blu-ray currently cannot do this type of thing. - 10 min.
4th gen. players announced, new features, lower prices. - 10 min.
CH DVD - They will say how China has gone red (no pun intended) and that CH DVD will lower prices and cost - 5 min.
Wrap Up - 5 min.
Q & A til the end? As long as it doesn't get out of hand.

I think it won't run a full 2 hours, but as you can see they have nearly 2 hours of NOTHING!

Blu-ray

Intro - 5 min (this will include anytype of sales numbers, its not going to be talked about much though).
Movie Studios talk about upcoming releases (I think this is going to go down, where all the studio execs get up at once say a little blurb and then flash up on a screen new titles that are "coming soon" (20 min.)
New CE manufacturers (chinese players will be there!) (Note: there will not be any new players discussed at the blu-ray keynote, this will be done at the CEs conference, this is going to give off the impression the blu-ray is everywhere, as everytime a CE gets up to talk, blu-ray is mentioned, blu-ray is going to get mentioned in 80% of the CEs speeches throughout the whole show, by the end of it nobody will remember the HD DVD 2 hour FUD marathon) - 10 min.
The Big Bomb of the Show (A BIG Retailer has gone Blu-ray excluisve) - 10 min.
Profiles and advanced features 10 min.
Closing - 5 min.

Final Note: No studio shifts

Did I nail it, or do you guys think I missed the mark completely.

[macpac24]

new 360 model with a built-in HD DVD drive...maybe

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by macpac24

new 360 model with a built-in HD DVD drive...maybe

I really doubt MS will do this - we know where their true colours lie.

[Go Blu]

Even Microsoft doesn't have that much faith in DUD.

Toshi execs even let that slip once.
then they later restated only without the microsoft part.

As far as CES goes I just hope the DUD camp keeps the propaganda to a minimum.
Or at least someone calls them out on it.

[Nooff]

Originally Posted by macpac24

new 360 model with a built-in HD DVD drive...maybe

nahh, M$ is all for downloads.

I think Warner will announce upcoming releases for BB and the Matrix in 2008. During the HD FUD they will not announce any new dates but keep to the release schedule they have planned so far. By March 2008 WB will drop HD DUD and go Blu.

[greekjgg]

This is Gate's final keynote at CES, he will have something special, I don't know that an HD 360 is it though?

HD Dud will talk quite a bit at how they finally hit the sweet spot ($99) for a player and show the increase in purchase since doing so and somehow spin future activity into that to show that an eventual lead of blu in the year 2019!!

Then they will have some titles that we wish would be blu.

I really don't see any "earthshattering" news from either side, I do see some big releases coming up though.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by macpac24

new 360 model with a built-in HD DVD drive...maybe

IF this occurs, which it won't, it will be at MS's speech, not HD DVDs, either way this is not going to happen.

The best they do is come out with a new redisigned add on.

[Seretur]

I think this is very plausible, Stockstar.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by Nooff

nahh, M$ is all for downloads.

I think Warner will announce upcoming releases for BB and the Matrix in 2008. During the HD FUD they will not announce any new dates but keep to the release schedule they have planned so far. By March 2008 WB will drop HD DUD and go Blu.

i forgot to mention that, WB will spend 80% of their time talking about past releases and sales numbers. Then they will say some stuff about The Invasion, Bonnie and Clyde, Twister, etc. After they get off the stage, people are going to be like, wow! they are not staying with this format much longer. They will cover up not announcing new titles for blu-ray, because they don't want to make it obvious that they are going exclusive VERY soon, by announcing catch up titles.

There is a slight, 2:98 chance WB announces blu-ray exclusivity Friday afternoon.

[greekjgg]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

There is a slight, 2:98 chance WB announces blu-ray exclusivity Friday afternoon.

This is the 2nd time I've seen somebody say this!!

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

This is the 2nd time I've seen somebody say this!!

weird, never saw another post like that. just a coincidence i can assure you.

[Rustmonsteru]

My predictions for CES:

crazed fanboys knock out the power to an entire city block to stop an positive blu announcments. They are captured and branded terrorists.
HD-DVD becomes associated with terrorism and begins to decline. In an attempt to salvage what's left they rename their product "Freedom-DVDs" and package 51 free with every player purchased, 51 representing the 50 states and the territory of Puerto Rico as well as a subconcious tie to the TL51.

Really though, I'm not expecting much from CES; Here's hoping I'm wrong.

[tommyD]

Is it just me, or does all this news sound mundane - not really worth showcasing at a major convention...
There's gotta be a couple shockers in there, right?

[bhampton]

Quote

There is a slight, 2:98 chance WB announces blu-ray exclusivity Friday afternoon.


That would make Friday better then usual.

I hope it happens. I don't believe it because it's one of those "too good to be true" thingies. But something has to shine a light on those pitiful HD DUD-ers.

-Brian

[CptGreedle]

It would be sweet if the XBOX added a Blu-ray add on! HA! And it would be possible too, nothing stopping it but bad business practices.

I know they won't do it, but they should. It might happen some day. But I do not think they will add an HD DVD player into the XBOX. They already said they will not make games on HD DVDs and they have nothing to gain from adding it. Right now you just buy a cheap add-on and you can play HD DVDs, but who would want to buy a new system just to do that. Too little, too late.

I don't think WB will announce anything. But I would not be surprised if they do next month.
I would like to see Best Buy go Blu-ray exclusive. They are already leaning that way and it would definitely boost sales for Blu-ray!

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by tommyD

Is it just me, or does all this news sound mundane - not really worth showcasing at a major convention...
There's gotta be a couple shockers in there, right?

i think its going to be really mundane. the only other shocker i can think of is weinstein going blu, but i really doubt it.

there is only 1 possiblity for a crazy CES and thats if WB goes exclusive on Friday and then Universal announces neutarlity. but the odds to that are slim to none.

There is no law that says CES has to be a tech soap opera with all these shockers and twist.

[maximiza]

They have to make it amazing, the economy is slowing so they got to impress big time even more so.

[monkeytap]

this is not at CES, but a prediction nonetheless...

Apple will announce blu-ray authoring (software, burners as options, ect) on January 16th at a special event at MacWorld.

I added this discussion to another thread

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by maximiza

They have to make it amazing, the economy is slowing so they got to impress big time even more so.

i don't know if you are being serious. no matter how big of a tech conference this is or how many "shockers" come from it. it isn't going to create anytype of macroeconomic boost of any significance.

[juanleche]

HD-DVD speech: Ashton comes on stage "You've been punk'd"