CNNMoney article on Blu-ray VS HD-DVD

[PaulGo]

No Winner In Blu-ray, HD DVD Battle
December 24, 2007: 08:05 PM EST

Dec. 26, 2007 (Investor's Business Daily delivered by Newstex) --

Both rival formats seeking to become the high-definition successor to the DVD have attracted consumers, and while Blu-ray Disc leads HD DVD, the race is far from over.

This holiday season saw some HDDVD players available for as little as $98 at Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) WMT, while $199 was a more common low price. Blu-ray Disc player makers cut their prices as well, with some machines selling for less than $299.

Including video game consoles, 2.7 million Blu-ray Disc players have sold vs. 750,000 HD DVD players in North America as of Dec. 1, say associations for both standards. Toshiba's HD DVD launched in the U.S. in April 2006, and Sony's (NYSE:SNE) SNE Blu-ray Disc that June. December figures aren't yet available, though observers say sales appear to be rising for both formats.

Balance of article at:

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/...1-21882911.htm

[PaulGo]

And another article from the Indianapolis Star:
High-def dogfight No winner yet as HD, Blu-ray battle over DVDs
By Erika D. Smith and Christopher Lloyd
erika.smith@indystar.com
December 25, 2007

And you thought Christmas was a time for peace on Earth and good will toward men.
Not when it comes to selling consumers on a technology for high-definition, next-generation DVDs.
The two combatants in this home-video slugfest are Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD.
Each have multibillion-dollar corporations lined up in their corner, and neither side shows signs of backing down. The competition recalls the early days of the video market nearly 30 years ago, when Betamax fought a losing effort to tout its superiority over VHS tape.
Only this time, both formats face a quickly rising third technology. If consumers don't take to either format this holiday shopping season and in the year ahead, Internet-based delivery systems, such as video-on-demand, could take root and challenge the DVD discs for dominance.
"If neither side gains traction, it will be hard for this to go beyond 2008," said Michael Gartenberg, an emerging technology analyst with JupiterResearch.
Many consumers are noncommital, Gartenberg said, waiting to buy a high-definition player until HD-DVD or Blu-ray gains a clear edge.
"I'm not sold," said Kevin Redding, who was shopping for an HDTV last week at Circuit City in Carmel. "The verdict hasn't come in on it yet. I'm going to wait."
Some powerful voices are telling buyers to remain on the sidelines.
Consumer Reports instructed readers not to purchase either HD DVD or Blu-ray players. Film critic Roger Ebert recently wrote that he's not buying until the format war is settled.
At Forrester Research, experts predicted Blu-ray would dominate by the fourth quarter of 2007. But Forrester analyst J.P. Gownder said they've backed off that estimate.
"It's going to be bloody for the next 18 months," he said.
For consumers, picking one high-def player means some favorites flicks won't be available in their chosen format. If you want the top-grossing film of the year, "Spider-Man 3," you can only get it in Blu-ray. But if you want "Shrek 3" or "Transformers" -- the second- and third-most popular movies -- you'll have to go HD DVD.
"Consumers don't really know the difference between the formats, but they do know they want to see particular titles," Gownder said.
Only one major studio, Warner Bros., is issuing titles in both formats. As a result, some of its films like "300" -- ironically enough, about ancient Spartans fighting an unwinnable war -- have been hits in high-definition.
Other studios aren't following suit because it's costly to publish in both formats and because of corporate considerations. For example, with Sony as the key backer of Blu-ray, studios under its ownership umbrella -- Columbia Pictures, Tri-Star Pictures and MGM -- must follow suit.
Disney now is releasing its movies exclusively on Blu-ray.
Tom Burns, a sales associate at hhgregg on 96th Street, said he's expecting to receive a 40-inch TV as a Christmas gift. If so, he'll buy a Blu-ray player, he said, "because of the Walt Disney movies. We have three kids." Burns estimates he sells Blu-ray machines over HD DVD at a rate of three to one.
Nielsen Videoscan reported shortly after Thanksgiving that about 72 percent of all HD movies sold between Black Friday and Nov. 30 were Blu-ray. The remaining 28 percent were HD DVD discs.
"Blu-ray's winning," said Greg Wooten, who installs HDTVs in homes for Firedog, Circuit City's customer-service company. "One word: Disney."
This year, ordinary consumers -- not just early adopters -- are buying the players, he said.
One reason is price. Last year, Blu-ray players cost $1,000 to $1,500. Today, you can find one for $400. HD-DVD players were $1,000, and now they're available for as little as $200.
The discs for both formats are about the same: $25 to $30.
But the question remains: Why does anyone need a disc at all when high-definition content is available with the click of a remote control?
Telecommunications companies, including AT&T, DirecTV and Comcast, are ramping up their video-on-demand offerings. Some of that content, including movies and TV shows, is free and some of it is in high-definition.
Market-research firm SNL Kagan predicts video-on-demand services will become a significant revenue source for telecom companies. They'll make more than $6 billion in five years, according to a recent study.
But for now, issues remain with video-on-demand. Notably, not every household has a set-top box from their telecom provider that's capable of delivering such high-definition content.
Yet SNL Kagan predicts they will -- and soon.
That means the backers of HD-DVD and Blu-ray have a short window of opportunity. Otherwise, the formats may fade into oblivion or be forced to share the market the way CDs do now with downloadable MP3s.
"Frankly," Gartenberg said, "it will be decided in 2008."

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dl...NESS/712250319

[181]

yeah i read these. the guy who wrote it seems uninformed.

[Firestreak]

Shrek 3 and Transformers aren't the 2nd and 3rd highest grossing movies are they?

Could swear Pirates 3 and Potter 5 were.

[PaulGo]

In the first article they mentioned Warner is likely to go Blu. In both articles they state the war should be over in 2008. I think in both articles their is a lot of evidence they 2008 will be Blu.

[Elder]

For an article I'm writing I had to buy an HD-DVD player and I've been comparing the two ever since I brought it home. I've got to say, I know am more of a Blu-ray fan than I ever was before. While the HD-DVD camp may have had 'final' specs out, I'm extremely glad the BDA waited. For one thing, the downloadable content is too large for the HD-DVD player. What ends up happening if you have to download only a few things, delete them, and then download other stuff. Clearly this wasn't well thought out. Little things like this feel cheap compared to what we're already seeing done with Blu-ray. My review build of RE Extinction features a better PiP function than almost every other HD-DVD I've tested thus far.

Why did I just write all that, to say that 2008 will be a Blu year. I'm almost certain of it. The product is superior and now that prices are far more even I'm fairly certain you're going to see a massive surge in Blu-ray sales, even more so than we're already seeing. Both of these articles say the format war will end in 2008 and I fully agree with those statements based on what I've already seen with my own two eyes.

[TigerShark]

Warner please, we need you.

[dakota81]

I wouldn't worry, the format war is at a stalemate with BD having 1.5-2:1 software sales lead, *and* HD DVD has played all their cards, that format is topped out, what you have right now is the best and cheapest it will be for quite a while.

On the other side of the fence, Blu-ray is just getting started into profile 1.1 and there's still room to get cheaper throughout the year, the industry expand Blu-ray support in more devices, burners in computers, burners in camcorders.

While it may seem like a "stalemate", it's far from it, definitely advantage Blu-ray.

[makingmusic476]

Originally Posted by PaulGo

And another article from the Indianapolis Star:
[B][SIZE="4"]

[...]

Only one major studio, Warner Bros., is issuing titles in both formats. As a result, some of its films like "300" -- ironically enough, about ancient Spartans fighting an unwinnable war -- have been hits in high-definition.

[...]

That's not ironic, that's a coincidence.

[tru2blu707]

while HDM does seem to be at a stalemate atm it only needs one big push from a certain studio(ahem, warner) to turn the tides and end this. we'll see what happens at CES.

[Smallville206]

All I know is it looked like a Blu victory was right around the corner, than HD-DVD brought Paramount dragging it out. Still time goes on and once again momentum all seems to be on Blu's side and than HD-DVD bombs with cheap players slowing things down once again.

People should be concerned about close sales figures between dual format releases such as Harry Potter as those close figures could hinder WB's decision who if no choice from them is made soon, it holds the format war in a virtual stalemate.

Call HD-DVD's moves desperate or whatever you want, the fact is they are dug in and becoming more and more like cockroaches everyday. Blu has been more agressive, but they need to do WHATEVER it takes to bring WB aboard. HD-DVD is doing just enough to put the format in jeopardy.

It seems for quite a while now the BDA is always trying to counter HD-DVD's moves, why doesn't the BDA send HD-DVD reeling and let them try and counter. The BDA seems to play more defense than offense and I am tired of it. I have 129 BD's to my name so far and still feel things are on thin ice, it only takes one big move like WB going to HD-DVD exclusitivity to screw everyone over. That may be unlikely, but who expected Tyson to lose to Buster Douglas.

[PaulGo]

Based upon my observations at my local Costco, Sams Club and Best Buy, with the recent price drop to less than $300 for a Sony Blu-ray player they are selling out all their stock while the Toshiba HD-DVD players are just sitting on the shelves. Maybe Toshiba should run a promo - buy a HD-DVD movie and get the HD-DVD player free!

[Neo65]

As much as I prefer blu-ray, I must say that for the non early adopters, buying into either formats is going to be aggravating for them. Perhaps less aggravating for the blue format, but nevertheless, not worth the hassle if you just want to be able to pick up the highdef disk and play it on your player --- because there is no unified format. YET.

Hopefully this is resolved soon.

[xwingsct]

If Microsoft start putting HD-DVD drive into Xbox then we'll start to worry. I don't think they will, because they want to keep the price lower than PS3. Bluray is in the lead right now because of PS3. Let's hope that they don't jacking up the price of the player to $399 after the holiday.

Movie studios need to release more blockbuster hits the same day and date as DVD.
Both camps invest so much money on these HD thing and both camps has been selling their hardware at loss.

Several articles that I read stated that Paramount swithing to HD-DVD didn't really make much difference, so it's obviously poeple are not really buying the HD content like they were hoping for.

I bet those who bought the cheap Toshiba players are just using them as an upconverted DVD.
I hate to say this but I think poeple who bought Bluray have a little bit higher income and more knowlegable about hometheater than poeple who bought HD-DVD. Bluray fans will buy movies every week while HD-DVD fans will buy DVD instead.

[NexGen76]

Originally Posted by Firestreak

Shrek 3 and Transformers aren't the 2nd and 3rd highest grossing movies are they?

Could swear Pirates 3 and Potter 5 were.

Yes thats right they are 2nd & 3rd Spiderman 3 was the most at 336 million & Shrek 3 320 million & Transformers 319 million. HP 4 did 292 million.

[jsteinhauer]

Have to agree, though, that if there is no winner in 2008, optical media may very well be history. Irrespective of achieveable quality, once the mass market has readily available on-demand downloads, they who are already satisfied with SD PQ and 2.0 stereo (nearly everyone) will have no incentive to spend hundreds on hardware and software. The studios will be more than happy to save the cost of producing software. Don't be in denial, and don't be so self-centered to think it's all about what YOU want...It's not what's better that will drive the market, it's what's more profitable.

This is much more worrisome in the year to come, as the US economy is not looking up, at least from the individual consumer's perspective. Every month, the subprime mortgage situation and now the credit card defaults are getting gloomier and gloomier. Most consumers can't go out and buy electronics with cash, and with the house in default and the card maxed out, no one will be buying a BD player.

[PaulGo]

Microsoft is hoping for a stalemate. If that happens they win.

[PaulGo]

Another analysis:

Report Predicts Drop in Next-Gen DVD Player Prices

Report Predicts Drop in Next-Gen DVD Player Prices By Jennifer LeClaire
December 26, 2007 9:05AM


Richard Doherty, an analyst at the Envisioneering Group, said he doesn't expect heavy subsidies from Sony for Blu-ray because Sony is confident it will win the battle against Toshiba and the HD DVD format. In fact, he continued, the Blu-ray camp would probably define the heavy holiday HD DVD subsidies as a going-out-of-business sale.

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According to a new market report from Understanding & Solutions, both Blu-ray and HD DVD player prices should decline significantly in early 2008.

Consumers can purchase HD DVD players for less than $200 and Blu-ray player prices have dropped to below $300 at some online venues. This is just the beginning, according to Bill Foster, Understanding & Solutions' senior technology consultant. "Drive, chipset, and other system components are now benefiting from economies of scale," Foster said in a statement.

"In early 2008, we're going to see the bill of materials for a basic high-definition player, in either format, weighing in at less than $150," Foster said, "and that's going to impact the high street very soon, providing the consumer with a choice of low price players that allow consumer electronics companies a margin for profit."

Format Clarity in 2008

The research group predicted that if both formats continue to sell, HD DVD and Blu-ray players will retail below $100 by 2011.

"Crucially, Blu-ray benefits from stronger Hollywood Studio support and represents a greater proportion of high definition disc production volumes and disc sales," said Jeremy Wills, a consultant at Understanding & Solutions. "To date, Paramount's move to sole support of HD DVD has failed to turn the market, despite the HD DVD exclusivity of key titles Transformers and Shrek the Third."

Notably, Blu-ray still represented over 70 percent of HD movie sales in the U.S. during the week Transformers was released on HD DVD. As demand grows and manufacturing volumes build, Wills predicted, the market will see the costs of releasing on two different formats start to add up. Wills suggested that there might be surprises just around the corner, and that we could see a lot more clarity on these issues in 2008.

Consumer Confusion Persists

Despite all this action in the HD movie market, consumer confusion still persists. The importance of providing a coherent message through strong retailer support is essential, the report asserted, as many buyers still don't know what additional inputs are required in order to view HD content on an HD TV.

Still, consumer interest in new displays continues unabated. By the end of this year, 34 percent of U.S. homes will own an HD display, rising to 90 percent by 2011, according to Understanding & Solutions. In Europe, by contrast, the uptake is slower, with 20 percent ownership by the end of this year, rising to 66 percent by 2011.

Broadcasters continue to play their part in driving demand, with almost 100 HD channels now available in the U.S. However, European operators in countries such as France and the UK still are playing catch-up, the report noted, hampered by a lack of HD content.

http://www.toptechnews.com/story.xht...d=12200CI1X27S

[PaulGo]

Interesting CNet blog:

A roadmap for ending the high-def format quagmire
Posted by Don Reisinger
Blu-ray

Can Sony put an end to this war?


How many times over the past few months have you heard that "the worst is over" and the chances of the high-def format war finally coming to a close were increasing by the day? If you haven't heard it at least once, you're probably not reading the right stories.

But with all that going on, the war is officially a quagmire for both sides and the chances of getting out of this quickly are diminishing at an astounding rate. Consider this: as it stands, the Blu-ray camp commands roughly 49 percent DVD market share, while HD DVD is trailing slightly behind. To make matters worse, some reports suggest HD DVD may be gaining strength, although most buyers are sitting out.

So what's really going on with this war? Is there an end in sight? Even better, is there a solution in sight that can finally put this to rest? If you ask me, I think this could be over in a month if the Blu-ray camp follows three steps.

Step 1: Warner

Warner Bros. is, without a doubt, the most important element of ending this quagmire. As I said above, Sony currently commands 49 percent of the DVD market before Warner jumps on board. But with a little coaxing (and financial massaging), Sony could probably get Warner to take its side. If it can succeed in this, most estimates put Blu-ray's share of the DVD market at about 70 percent, while the HD DVD camp is left to flounder.

Now, the biggest issue with this is getting Warner on board. More often than not, Warner's representatives have come out and said that it plans on being neutral until it sees a clear-cut winner emerge. To make matters worse, the company is actually performing relatively well by supporting all three formats (DVD, HD DVD, and Blu-ray), so there is no immediate need to join one side or the other.

As if that wasn't enough, the HD DVD side of the war still harbors support from Paramount Pictures, DreamWorks, and Universal Studios, to name a few, and the chances of any of these companies leaving this format could be difficult without Warner's Blu-ray backing.

Interestingly enough, if Warner would decide on HD DVD because of its cheaper cost of production, the war would officially hit a standstill and the chances of this ending soon are all but over.

Simply put, Sony must do whatever it can to bring Warner aboard. Not only would it give its format a commanding lead in the market, it would almost surely attract other studios to join its side and put an end to this once and for all.

Step 2: Slash prices on all players

Although prices of Blu-ray and HD DVD players are coming down, none have hit the sub-$100 price point long enough to justify a purchase. Worse, most consumers are downright confused and others couldn't care less about the future of HD DVD and Blu-ray.

But with Warner now on board, Sony would need to deal the death blow as soon as possible. Surely it could drop prices on its media, but the most effective solution would be to drop the prices of its players.

Much like its gaming division, Sony should sell its own players at a loss for a while to increase adoption rates. Sound a bit too extreme for an industry that doesn't employ this tactic? Think of the alternative: with so much money invested in this format, Sony currently runs the chance of losing everything if Blu-ray becomes a debacle. At this point, nothing should be left to chance.

As far as I'm concerned, each and every Blu-ray player should hit the magic sub-$100 price point as soon as the deal is inked with Warner. In effect, this will help create two scenarios--people would take notice that more movies are available on Blu-ray and the players are cheaper than (or the same price as) HD DVD hardware. If that's true, what's the impetus for people to buy Toshiba's device?

Step 3: Get in contact with HD DVD's supporters and inform them of the bad news

Once steps one and two are complete, Sony must do everything it can to get in touch with HD DVD's supporters and fill them in on the writing on the wall. After all, once Warner jumps on board and sales start increasing for Blu-ray, what are the chances that these studios want anything to do with HD DVD anyway?

Even better, the deals Sony could make with the other studios would almost surely turn out to be far more lucrative than the Warner deal and it finally completes the ultimate goal--victory.

Believe it or not, this war could be ended sooner than you think. It just all depends on Sony's ability to make sound business decisions. If you ask me, we're probably in for a long one.

http://blogs.cnet.com/8301-13506_1-9838619-17.html

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by PaulGo

Interesting CNet blog:

A roadmap for ending the high-def format quagmire
Posted by Don Reisinger
Blu-ray

Can Sony put an end to this war?


http://blogs.cnet.com/8301-13506_1-9838619-17.html

How many times have we seen misinformed folks in the media?
This war is not Sony vs HD-DVD!!!