NY TIMES: HD DVDs Fall Like Dominoes

[Living Near Shamu]

January 10, 2008, 12:05 pm
HD DVDs Fall Like Dominoes
By Saul Hansell

Tags: Blu ray, HD DVD, movies, video

Nothing has been announced, but Variety is reporting that the last two major studios backing HD DVD — NBC Universal and Paramount — are opening the door for a switch to Blu-ray. These studios have commitments to release some discs this year in HD DVD, but both have ended their exclusive commitment to that format, which is backed by a group led by Toshiba.

This comes after Warner Brothers, which had been issuing movies in both formats, decided to go exclusively with Sony’s Blu-ray format. Variety also reports that retailers may also put pressure on Universal and Paramount to back Blu-ray. Last summer, Blockbuster decided to go with Blu-ray only.

So what appeared to be a stalemate may, with one relatively small move by Warner, now turn out to be a quick victory for Sony. The fight between the systems has hurt studios, electronics makers and consumers. And I suspect a winner — any winner — will be welcomed by all sides (except Toshiba and Microsoft, a key partner).

Of course, one reason for the standoff is that there are real merits to both sides, as many of the comments to our post on Warner’s move expressed.

Loosely speaking, Blu-ray discs can hold more data, while HD DVD discs and players are less expensive to make. Also, several readers who have used both say they prefer the menu system on the current batch of HD DVD players. My take on this is that once the format wars are over, the normal process of engineering improvements will work through many of the kinks in Blu-ray. Costs for this sort of thing just go down, and they fall faster with volume. Menus are software and can be fixed. Again, everybody benefits from a standard.

The other interesting discussion is whether we really need a high-definition disc at all. Some people suggested that the latest round of “upconverting” DVD players can turn the 480 lines of resolution on DVDs into a very nice picture on a 720 or 1080 line HD set.

I don’t have a personal view on this. The Hansell household is currently served by a 20-year-old 13-inch Hitachi set that is particularly well suited to foggy dream sequences. But I do know that in electronics shops, big numbers sell. Look at the people who raced to buy cameras with far more megapixels than they ever would need for 4-by-6 prints. (I know those are fighting words to some.) If a high-definition player and disc was just a tiny bit more money than a standard one, lots of people would say, why not go for it?

But do we need discs at all? With Comcast promising high-definition downloads in 4 minutes and prices of flash memory falling like a rock, maybe we will jump right to a world where video simply lives as a file on a hard drive or flash disk.

There’s logic to that, of course, at least in an engineering sort of way. Why spend all the money and time to stamp out discs and distribute them through stores, when the information on them can be simply zapped over a network to someone’s television?

I wouldn’t bet against this vision in the long run at all. But I also suspect there will be enough demand for physical discs over the next decade to justify the industry’s moves. Consumers have a practical rationality and they understand that discs give them simplicity and control that is elusive for now in an all-digital environment. Instead of relying on some sort of software system to find a movie, you simply pull one off your shelf, out of your pile or from under the bed — however you like to keep your movies.

And it is still not clear what you get when you buy a movie download. Consider Wal-Mart’s shuttered movie download service. People who bought movies from the service cannot move them onto new computers to play because of the digital-rights management scheme used.

As with the disc technology, all these problems with downloads will get worked through over the coming years.

But for now, if you actually want a copy of a movie that you can count on playing in the future, it’s rational to buy one in a format supported by all the players in the industry, and one that exists in three dimensions. The seeming triumph of Blu-ray only makes that easier and safer.

Link

[Memnoch71]

I'm sorry, but Toshiba and Microsoft must be shitting Kittens right about now!

That it the New York Times!!! Let's see how long it takes the Trolls to start calling them a unreliable, disreputable source.....

[Vyrance]

great article there by someone who actually understands that a large majority of people currently prefer physical media over digital.

[Manco]

Finally, a truely rational analysis. Probably the most well reasoned article I have yet to read.

[E-Dogg]

That was a very insightful and thoughtprovoking article from the NYTimes!!!! They are right and we won, so please HD-DVD give up and stop making more people waste their $ on a crappy failing format.

[Living Near Shamu]

Very good insight on the digital downloads stuff too. I don't believe they will be as successful as MS is pointing them out to be. What if I wanted to take them with me on a trip?

[SpikesBluBlooded]

And the hits just keep on comin'...

[YouSmellLikeBeans]

Just posted this on the hddvd forums.

[juanleche]

I posted this on the AVS news thread, I think they will declare the NY TImes as no longer a reliable source

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by juanleche

I posted this on the AVS news thread, I think they will declare the NY TImes as no longer a reliable source

don't you know how blu-biased the nyt is?!! its as blu-biased as The Financial Times, Variety, and Nielsen Videoscan. Delete the thread its just rumors.

They only neutrality that you can find reliable information from is avsforum.com and we say that wb is going to go back to hd dvd real soon. you just watch and see what the hd dvd group has up its sleve.

[blu-backer]

Agent Smith: Do you hear that, HD-DVD? That, is the sound of inevitablity. That, is the sound of your death. Goodbye, HD-DVD.

[Verbal]

Originally Posted by blu-backer

Agent Smith: Do you hear that, HD-DVD? That, is the sound of inevitablity. That, is the sound of your death. Goodbye, HD-DVD.

My name.....is Blu-ray!

[Luis_A51]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

don't you know how blu-biased the nyt is?!! its as blu-biased as The Financial Times, Variety, and Nielsen Videoscan. Delete the thread its just rumors.

They only neutrality that you can find reliable information from is avsforum.com and we say that wb is going to go back to hd dvd real soon. you just watch and see what the hd dvd group has up its sleve.

I know you're being sarcastic, but you should really add a smiley or something to make it more obvious

im sure a lot of people think your bi-polar or something haha

[ezcobar411]

Originally Posted by Memnoch71

I'm sorry, but Toshiba and Microsoft must be shitting Kittens right about now!

That it the New York Times!!! Let's see how long it takes the Trolls to start calling them a unreliable, disreputable source.....

I'm sure some delusional individuals will say that. But don't worry, the more the truth keeps being published regarding this issue, the general public will become more informed.

[Bourne1]

"Also, several readers who have used both say they prefer the menu system on the current batch of HD DVD players. My take on this is that once the format wars are over, the normal process of engineering improvements will work through many of the kinks in Blu-ray."

WTF does that mean?

[Luis_A51]

Originally Posted by Bourne1

"Also, several readers who have used both say they prefer the menu system on the current batch of HD DVD players. My take on this is that once the format wars are over, the normal process of engineering improvements will work through many of the kinks in Blu-ray."

WTF does that mean?

Exactly....of ALL the points to argue over (PQ, AQ, Size, PIP, Internet) he choice MENUS?! Weird....

[eat_me_cool]

Originally Posted by Luis_A51

Exactly....of ALL the points to argue over (PQ, AQ, Size, PIP, Internet) he choice MENUS?! Weird....

No, he's quite correct. All the issues that HD-DVD supporters claim to be important (cost, interactivity, menu's etc) are utterly irrelevant in the long term. In six months everything can be 'engineered out'. What cannot for changed is the fundermental capacity and bandwidth of the format.

The HD-DVD owners are complaining that you can't but a Blu-ray players with on-board decoding of all HD audio formats and web interactivity today and at the same price as a HD-DVD player. True, but in 3-4 months you will be able to. And the technology will be good for 10 years, not 1 year like HD-DVD

[dialog_gvf]

But, once again, suddenly with Blu-ray moving toward victory NOW the pundits come out and start talking up downloads.

Where was the talk about how downloads were going to crush HD DVD?

Gary

[Hassoon]

Best article I've read in a while regarding the format war and HD media in general .

Pure, unbiased, rational sense...an extremely rare quality when it comes to journalism these days.

In my opinion, I think bad press hurts HD-DVD more than switching studios .

[aristotles]

Originally Posted by Bourne1

"Also, several readers who have used both say they prefer the menu system on the current batch of HD DVD players. My take on this is that once the format wars are over, the normal process of engineering improvements will work through many of the kinks in Blu-ray."

WTF does that mean?

More FUD from HD DVD fanboys. Almost all Blu-rays have a popup menu in addition to a main menu and I've found that Blu-rays tend to have a themed menu whereas Universal HD DVD titles seems to be cookie cutter template menus with very little variation from title to title. I also found the menu to be buggy on some HD DVD titles compared with my Blu-ray titles.