Opinion: Why Sony Won't Lose the Next-Gen War - Blu-ray Forum

Dave · 10-30-2006, 08:08 AM

Quote:

No console maker has ever dominated three consecutive platform generations. Will Sony pull it off? We think so. Here's why the PlayStation 3 will assume the PS2's throne in the next few years...

Read here:
http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14246

thunderhawk · 10-30-2006, 11:17 AM

I'm still staring at the price... Someone help me.

Blubaru · 10-30-2006, 01:45 PM

I don't think it will loose(fail) but I also don’t think it will win. In the end the Xbox360 or Wii will mostly likely be on top.

GoldenRedux · 10-30-2006, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blubaru

I don't think it will loose(fail) but I also don’t think it will win. In the end the Xbox360 or Wii will mostly likely be on top.

I think they took far too long bringing the PS3 to market thus giving M$ too much of a head start to gain a foothold in the market and dig into the PS dominance.

Kenshiro · 10-30-2006, 02:18 PM

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/06...2_id.html?.v=1

Quote:

Microsoft To Miss XBox 360 Production Targets By As Much As 25%
Wednesday October 25, 7:59 pm ET

Carl Howe (Blackfriars Communications) submits: Colin Sebastian at Lazard Capital Markets has warned that he expects Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT - News) XBox 360 shipments to only total 4.5 million for the year, instead of the 5 million expected. That says to me that the XBox 360 marketing plan is fading fast.

Why? People forget that the original projection for XBox 360 sales was for 5.5 to 6 million within six months of launch. That projection was re-iterated in January this year, but extended out to 5.5 million by July. And now, we're looking at 4.5 million for the year. Ouch.

We'll know more after Microsoft announces earnings tomorrow. But many analysts were originally projecting that there would be 8 or 9 million XBox 360s in the market before Playstation ever launched. If these numbers are correct, it says that sales aren't living up to projections. And with two new competing consoles launching next month, this story isn't going to improve a lot without a serious marketing push to compete. Suddenly, that one-year lead Microsoft had on Sony (NYSE: SNE - News) doesn't look like such a big advantage after all.

thunderhawk · 10-30-2006, 02:25 PM

It may not be such a big advantage... But it is an advantage!
I'm glad they didn't reach their goal.

And it affects potential PS3 buyers. I remember when I purchased my PS2, I looked at how many games were available...

GoldenRedux · 10-30-2006, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kenshiro

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/06...2_id.html?.v=1

So, perhaps I was mistaken?

partridge · 10-30-2006, 02:34 PM

Well, MS certainly suffered immediately after the launch by not delivering enough consoles to a market that, at the time, wanted it.

But the longer those production delays ran on, the "closer" the release of the PS3 got, and it would seem that a lot of people got over not having an Xbox360, and were happy to wait for more information on the PS3 to see how it compared before investing their cash. Either that, or they just got bored waiting and spent their money on something else.

Xbox360 is selling well, but it's hardly a "must have" item.

MS are still to release titles with mass appeal, their first party games - by their own admission - have taken too long to come out, and the various patches, updates and add-ons being released are nothing but an attempt to catch up to the as yet unreleased PS3.

By this time next year, assuming Sony get their production sorted, sales will be closer than MS would like. We all know how quickly the world moves on; and media focus will soon shift big time to the PS3; frankly will the worlds media care about a 1080p patch for a console released in 2005? No, they'll be focussed on the next big thing; PS3.

A reality check - of course I don't expect 360's to stop selling, but every PS3 made in the next 6 months will sell without problem and the more sony can get into the shops the more they cut into that 360 sales lead. If sony have production issues, then the public will again get bored of waiting and buy something else until the price drops to grab their interest again. Sony have to delilver the goods in plentiful supplies over the next 6 months to capatilise on the hype, something MS were unable to do.

theknub · 10-30-2006, 02:34 PM

i completely disagree with people who don't think it will win. a few thoughts regarding that:
1) the x box 360 has sold roughly 6 million units. yes, this sounds like a large number. but when taken into the worldwide scope, it is nothing. the ps3 is estimated (yes, i know it is simply estimated) to have shipped 4 mil consoles by march. correct me if that estimate is wrong. however, if sony can meet that number, there won't be a huge gap between the two consoles with roughly a year difference in launch times.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360
2) the 360 lacks truly next gen ability. no wants to purchase a console and have to replace it in three years. this is what is being suggested with the x box 420 (sorry, couldn't help myself). i don't know who wants to go out and purchase a new system with an integrated hd-dvd drive so they can support a newer/larger format. personally, MS launched premature simply to be first to market. while this is great and gives you an early lead (see hd-dvd), it also means you leave out features and launch a clunky and poorly engineered piece of equipment. yes, bark up the add-on tree please. however, the history of add-on equipment is piss poor (excuse the french). the downside to this equipment is that it is for movies only and cannot support next gen audio. if studios get the bright idea to implement ict, that precious add-on is rendered useless.
3) price. yes, many may say WTF? get off the drugs or give me some. however, what is a 360 core system? $300. a hd-dvd add-on? $200. what's the standard ps3? $500. so that is an equal price for the two systems. however, you get true 1080p, a 20 gig h.d., hdmi 1.3, bluetooth, support of 7 controllers, next gen video and free online service. wait? free online? yes. so wait, that is $50 a year (at least for gold) and all of a sudden that is $550 vs $500. many may say, well i don't need the add-on so it's really $350. ok, i applaud your math skills. but that $50 is for one year, want to keep that system for longer than a year and still play online? pony up $50 more per year. want to keep that system 4 years? that's $200. so $300 plus $200 equals $500. yay, we can do math. try to figure out what it costs if you want that hd-dvd drive? don't want an add-on? just guess what it will cost for an integrated drive. however, there is no guarantee that it will support games at this point.
4) the ps3, by having larger disc sizes, allows for larger, more complex, and richer environments. that is good right? why limit yourself to 9 gig when 50 is already possible (let's not discuss future possibilities) and studios are already taking advantage of the extra size.
5) exclusive titles. yes, MS has halo but the hype is already disipating. they have a few other like god of war (or something like that) and one or two other titles. just look at the sony lib. and tell me what MS has that really trumps ps3. the only title i feel needs to be said is MGS and that closes all cases.

obviously, i believe the ps3 is the only way to go for next gen. i applaud sony for sticking to their guns and holding off on the release till the system was ready. good for them. the next step is nov 17th.

JTK · 10-30-2006, 02:39 PM

The good news is: This console war will be a lot closer and more tightly competitive vs. the last time around where Sony was just this overwhelming, dominating juggernaut.

It's not good for ANY one company to have that much of a stranglehold.

I want SNES vs. Genesis type console wars again.

Competition breeds/forces quality and ultimately, lower prices.

The game industry as a whole sorely needs more of that.

Sony may ultimately win again down the road, but it isn't going to be the easy, checked off runaway like the PS2 was vs. everything else.

thunderhawk · 10-30-2006, 02:44 PM

I'll definately be exiting.

And theknub, I love your math!

hmurchison · 10-30-2006, 02:45 PM

The xbox 360 is estimated to have around 12-15 million units in play by end of next year.

I'm not sure I'm buying into the whole "the PS3 is going to narrow the gap" until I see the sales continue to rise after the first million or so. Either way you slice it $500 is still $500 and after the hardcore gamers have purchases their consoles it'll be interesting to see how dedicated the casual gamer is to either console.

No one has every shipped a console this expensive. The risk is high but so is the reward.

theknub · 10-30-2006, 02:47 PM

hehe, thank you

theknub · 10-30-2006, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hmurchison

The xbox 360 is estimated to have around 12-15 million units in play by end of next year.

I'm not sure I'm buying into the whole "the PS3 is going to narrow the gap" until I see the sales continue to rise after the first million or so. Either way you slice it $500 is still $500 and after the hardcore gamers have purchases their consoles it'll be interesting to see how dedicated the casual gamer is to either console.

No one has every shipped a console this expensive. The risk is high but so is the reward.

what is sony estimated to have shipped by end of next year?

i agree about sales, you never know until they hit the shelves. but may i ask, what was the ps2 sales price? didn't everyone say, "damn kid, that's a lot." then they went and purchased it anyway. people are able to recognize value when it sits in front of them.

partridge · 10-30-2006, 02:52 PM

Absolutely, I don't want Sony to rool

Talk of Sony's gaming demise has been going on for a while now, but as magazines and websites actually take delivery of their "test" consoles; everything I've read has been positive, and many of these PS3 hands on reviews, by impartial sites, are making the 360 sound like yesterdays technology. Of course the 360 has a lot more to offer, but for true next gen, for true HD compatability, and as a standalone fully online enabled media centre, the PlayStation3 is the only console that delivers the goods.

There is no doubt in my mind that it is worth the extra money. Frankly, you could pick up a PS3 and get a hell of a lot out of it without even putting in a game disc!

JTK · 10-30-2006, 02:53 PM

I want a triple threat blood match between Sony, MS, and Nintendo that's just like what the SNES-Genesis wars were at their height.

We all win in a scenario like that.

partridge · 10-30-2006, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hmurchison

The xbox 360 is estimated to have around 12-15 million units in play by end of next year.

Um, weren't they aiming for 10 million sales by the end of THIS year?

theknub · 10-30-2006, 02:56 PM

Quote:

I want a triple threat blood match between Sony, MS, and Nintendo that's just like what the SNES-Genesis wars were at their height.

We all win in a scenario like that.

lol, then sony came in and laid down the people's elbow

partridge · 10-30-2006, 03:01 PM

Here's a particulary unwelcome paragraph from the OT's link:

"When the PS2, a six-year-old console, outsells your next-gen hardware month after month—which has been the case in recent months—something is not right. And according to Deutsche Bank analyst Jeetil Patel, the Xbox 360 continues to underperform the original Xbox at the same stage of its life."

ouch!

movies3 · 10-30-2006, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theknub

lol, then sony came in and laid down the people's elbow

haha so true!

10-30-2006, 02:25 PM	#6
thunderhawk Moderator Member since:Jul 2004 Location:Belgium	It may not be such a big advantage... But it is an advantage! I'm glad they didn't reach their goal. And it affects potential PS3 buyers. I remember when I purchased my PS2, I looked at how many games were available... Last edited by thunderhawk; 10-30-2006 at 02:34 PM.

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10-30-2006, 11:17 AM	#2
thunderhawk Moderator Member since:Jul 2004 Location:Belgium	I'm still staring at the price... Someone help me.

10-30-2006, 01:45 PM	#3
Blubaru Expert Member Member since:Oct 2006 Location:Tonight! you!	I don't think it will loose(fail) but I also don’t think it will win. In the end the Xbox360 or Wii will mostly likely be on top.

10-30-2006, 02:34 PM	#8
partridge Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Oct 2005 Location:England	Well, MS certainly suffered immediately after the launch by not delivering enough consoles to a market that, at the time, wanted it. But the longer those production delays ran on, the "closer" the release of the PS3 got, and it would seem that a lot of people got over not having an Xbox360, and were happy to wait for more information on the PS3 to see how it compared before investing their cash. Either that, or they just got bored waiting and spent their money on something else. Xbox360 is selling well, but it's hardly a "must have" item. MS are still to release titles with mass appeal, their first party games - by their own admission - have taken too long to come out, and the various patches, updates and add-ons being released are nothing but an attempt to catch up to the as yet unreleased PS3. By this time next year, assuming Sony get their production sorted, sales will be closer than MS would like. We all know how quickly the world moves on; and media focus will soon shift big time to the PS3; frankly will the worlds media care about a 1080p patch for a console released in 2005? No, they'll be focussed on the next big thing; PS3. A reality check - of course I don't expect 360's to stop selling, but every PS3 made in the next 6 months will sell without problem and the more sony can get into the shops the more they cut into that 360 sales lead. If sony have production issues, then the public will again get bored of waiting and buy something else until the price drops to grab their interest again. Sony have to delilver the goods in plentiful supplies over the next 6 months to capatilise on the hype, something MS were unable to do.

10-30-2006, 02:34 PM	#9
theknub Blu-ray Guru Member since:May 2006	i completely disagree with people who don't think it will win. a few thoughts regarding that: 1) the x box 360 has sold roughly 6 million units. yes, this sounds like a large number. but when taken into the worldwide scope, it is nothing. the ps3 is estimated (yes, i know it is simply estimated) to have shipped 4 mil consoles by march. correct me if that estimate is wrong. however, if sony can meet that number, there won't be a huge gap between the two consoles with roughly a year difference in launch times. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360 2) the 360 lacks truly next gen ability. no wants to purchase a console and have to replace it in three years. this is what is being suggested with the x box 420 (sorry, couldn't help myself). i don't know who wants to go out and purchase a new system with an integrated hd-dvd drive so they can support a newer/larger format. personally, MS launched premature simply to be first to market. while this is great and gives you an early lead (see hd-dvd), it also means you leave out features and launch a clunky and poorly engineered piece of equipment. yes, bark up the add-on tree please. however, the history of add-on equipment is piss poor (excuse the french). the downside to this equipment is that it is for movies only and cannot support next gen audio. if studios get the bright idea to implement ict, that precious add-on is rendered useless. 3) price. yes, many may say WTF? get off the drugs or give me some. however, what is a 360 core system? $300. a hd-dvd add-on? $200. what's the standard ps3? $500. so that is an equal price for the two systems. however, you get true 1080p, a 20 gig h.d., hdmi 1.3, bluetooth, support of 7 controllers, next gen video and free online service. wait? free online? yes. so wait, that is $50 a year (at least for gold) and all of a sudden that is $550 vs $500. many may say, well i don't need the add-on so it's really $350. ok, i applaud your math skills. but that $50 is for one year, want to keep that system for longer than a year and still play online? pony up $50 more per year. want to keep that system 4 years? that's $200. so $300 plus $200 equals $500. yay, we can do math. try to figure out what it costs if you want that hd-dvd drive? don't want an add-on? just guess what it will cost for an integrated drive. however, there is no guarantee that it will support games at this point. 4) the ps3, by having larger disc sizes, allows for larger, more complex, and richer environments. that is good right? why limit yourself to 9 gig when 50 is already possible (let's not discuss future possibilities) and studios are already taking advantage of the extra size. 5) exclusive titles. yes, MS has halo but the hype is already disipating. they have a few other like god of war (or something like that) and one or two other titles. just look at the sony lib. and tell me what MS has that really trumps ps3. the only title i feel needs to be said is MGS and that closes all cases. obviously, i believe the ps3 is the only way to go for next gen. i applaud sony for sticking to their guns and holding off on the release till the system was ready. good for them. the next step is nov 17th.

10-30-2006, 02:39 PM	#10
JTK Blu-ray Knight Member since:Jan 2006 Location:www.blurayoasis.com	The good news is: This console war will be a lot closer and more tightly competitive vs. the last time around where Sony was just this overwhelming, dominating juggernaut. It's not good for ANY one company to have that much of a stranglehold. I want SNES vs. Genesis type console wars again. Competition breeds/forces quality and ultimately, lower prices. The game industry as a whole sorely needs more of that. Sony may ultimately win again down the road, but it isn't going to be the easy, checked off runaway like the PS2 was vs. everything else.

10-30-2006, 02:44 PM	#11
thunderhawk Moderator Member since:Jul 2004 Location:Belgium	I'll definately be exiting. And theknub, I love your math!

10-30-2006, 02:45 PM	#12
hmurchison Banned Member since:Aug 2004 Location:Seaattle	The xbox 360 is estimated to have around 12-15 million units in play by end of next year. I'm not sure I'm buying into the whole "the PS3 is going to narrow the gap" until I see the sales continue to rise after the first million or so. Either way you slice it $500 is still $500 and after the hardcore gamers have purchases their consoles it'll be interesting to see how dedicated the casual gamer is to either console. No one has every shipped a console this expensive. The risk is high but so is the reward.

10-30-2006, 02:47 PM	#13
theknub Blu-ray Guru Member since:May 2006	hehe, thank you

10-30-2006, 02:52 PM	#15
partridge Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Oct 2005 Location:England	Absolutely, I don't want Sony to rool Talk of Sony's gaming demise has been going on for a while now, but as magazines and websites actually take delivery of their "test" consoles; everything I've read has been positive, and many of these PS3 hands on reviews, by impartial sites, are making the 360 sound like yesterdays technology. Of course the 360 has a lot more to offer, but for true next gen, for true HD compatability, and as a standalone fully online enabled media centre, the PlayStation3 is the only console that delivers the goods. There is no doubt in my mind that it is worth the extra money. Frankly, you could pick up a PS3 and get a hell of a lot out of it without even putting in a game disc!

10-30-2006, 02:53 PM	#16
JTK Blu-ray Knight Member since:Jan 2006 Location:www.blurayoasis.com	I want a triple threat blood match between Sony, MS, and Nintendo that's just like what the SNES-Genesis wars were at their height. We all win in a scenario like that.

10-30-2006, 03:01 PM	#19
partridge Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Oct 2005 Location:England	Here's a particulary unwelcome paragraph from the OT's link: "When the PS2, a six-year-old console, outsells your next-gen hardware month after month—which has been the case in recent months—something is not right. And according to Deutsche Bank analyst Jeetil Patel, the Xbox 360 continues to underperform the original Xbox at the same stage of its life." ouch!

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