Completion rate over 50% used as a green light signal for Netflix series.

[An4h0ny]

THE SECRET NETFLIX METRIC THAT GOT 1899 CANCELED — AND COULD RUIN TV FOREVER

...the easiest way to predict whether a Netflix show will be renewed or canceled is to look at its completion rate (aka, what percentage of people who watched a show actually finished it). If the completion rate is over 50 percent, the show gets renewed. If it’s under 50 percent... well, you can guess what happens then.

1899’s completion rate was reportedly just 32 percent.

Netflix doesn’t share this info with the public, but according to data analytics company Digital i (via What’s On Netflix), 1899’s completion rate was just 32 percent. If you’re interested in digging into the data, Forbes also has a breakdown of some other recent shows and their completion rates:

Heartstopper had a 73% completion rate and was renewed.
The Lincoln Lawyer had a 56% completion rate and was renewed.
Resident Evil spent a good amount of time at #1, but only had a 45% completion rate and was cancelled.
First Kill had a 44% completion rate and was cancelled.
Squid Game had a sky-high completion rate of 87% and was obviously renewed.
Arcane had a 60% completion rate and was renewed.
The Irregulars had a 41% completion rate and was cancelled.
Love Death and Robots had a 67% completion rate and was renewed.

-------------

Finish the shows you love, I guess.

It's all about the Benjamins, baby.

[kevin87]

Why would somebody not finish a show if they like it?

Netflix also likes to tout how many hours are watched, which is stupid and is clearly meant to make them seem more successful. All that should matter if how many unique accounts (and possibly user profiles in each account) FINISH a show, but at least 50% means they probably intend on finishing it.

[STD]

That means Black Summer had a less than 50% completion rate?

[Fiffy]

Netflix rescues junk like "Manifest" and cancels a well written and produced show like 1899 just weeks after its premiere. Seems like something is seriously wrong with their metrics.

BTW, I find it hard to believe that supposedly only 61% finished Arcane ...

[s2mikey]

Originally Posted by kevin87

Why would somebody not finish a show if they like it?

Netflix also likes to tout how many hours are watched, which is stupid and is clearly meant to make them seem more successful. All that should matter if how many unique accounts (and possibly user profiles in each account) FINISH a show, but at least 50% means they probably intend on finishing it.

Simple: the show starts good and as many of them do, it loses its steam, spins its wheels, gets repetitive and then people bail. I’m surprised this isn’t more common. We have started many shows and then jumped ship. 3 or 4 great episodes or a "good start" isn’t enough to get me to invest 4-5 seasons of my time into your show. Content creators must EARN peoples time. You don’t just get it because season one was good. If season two sucks….. bye…..

That’s my take on it.

[Josep5349]

Originally Posted by kevin87

Why would somebody not finish a show if they like it?

Netflix also likes to tout how many hours are watched, which is stupid and is clearly meant to make them seem more successful. All that should matter if how many unique accounts (and possibly user profiles in each account) FINISH a show, but at least 50% means they probably intend on finishing it.

After getting a flavour of a show, some may decide they wish to put it on hold and binge the whole series, without waiting months between seasons.

[frankrizzo13]

And as they cement their reputation as the network that cancels everything, some folks won't be inclined to START a show that sounds interesting, much less finish it.

[An4h0ny]

Originally Posted by frankrizzo13

And as they cement their reputation as the network that cancels everything, some folks won't be inclined to START a show that sounds interesting, much less finish it.

This was my reaction.

Sometimes there's just so much content out there I will start the show and then forget I even started it until my recommendation engine reminds me that I never finished the series or season.

Like I watched the first two episodes of Dark and then just forgot about it and never went back and watched it.

[kevin87]

Originally Posted by s2mikey

Simple: the show starts good and as many of them do, it loses its steam, spins its wheels, gets repetitive and then people bail. I’m surprised this isn’t more common. We have started many shows and then jumped ship. 3 or 4 great episodes or a "good start" isn’t enough to get me to invest 4-5 seasons of my time into your show. Content creators must EARN peoples time. You don’t just get it because season one was good. If season two sucks….. bye…..

That’s my take on it.

In that case, it's not a show you like then. But if people like a show and only watch half, why bother?

Originally Posted by Josep5349

After getting a flavour of a show, some may decide they wish to put it on hold and binge the whole series, without waiting months between seasons.

If they want to binge a multi-season series then all they're doing is making it more likely it will be a short series not worth watching because it won't have a conclusion. This isn't like broadcast tv where Nielsen is unreliable, streaming knows every account that watches something.

[BluBonnet]

Originally Posted by kevin87

streaming knows every account that watches something.

Yes and no.

[Josep5349]

Originally Posted by kevin87

If they want to binge a multi-season series then all they're doing is making it more likely it will be a short series not worth watching because it won't have a conclusion.

If Netflix continue being so short sighted that’s what will likely happen, and people will get fed up and go elsewhere.

.

[Blu Lemmy]

Let's face it, they are quickly becoming the least liked streaming service around.

[ps3bd_owner]

Netflix is becoming very unreliable and untrustworthy.

Here's hoping another network picks up 1899 for a new season.

[BluRayTim]

What’s the completion rate for The Guardians Of Justice Will Save You? Hopefully under 50%.

I would love to see that trash get cancelled after just one season. The first season was just seven episodes.

[s2mikey]

Originally Posted by kevin87

In that case, it's not a show you like then. But if people like a show and only watch half, why bother?

If they want to binge a multi-season series then all they're doing is making it more likely it will be a short series not worth watching because it won't have a conclusion. This isn't like broadcast tv where Nielsen is unreliable, streaming knows every account that watches something.

Why bother? One has to try something out to see if they like it. That doesnt mean you have to stick it out for multiple seasons if it gets crappy which many do. Sometimes its just that they go on too long. Walking Dead was like that for us. Great couple of seasons and then the "treadmill" feeling started. Same old shit over and over. Then, it just got stupid & shark-jumped. Lost interest.

Stranger things just got bad - great first season, decent second season if mostly a rehash. Then... S3 wrecked it all IMO. Tried a few episodes of S4. No thanks.

The point is that its worth it to "bother" since you never know when you'll find that show that is worthy of a multi-season investment unless you try. Right? But, Im not sticking out to help ratings or whatever. Draw me in and keep me there. Make it worth my while.

[HockeySlasher]

Originally Posted by An4h0ny

THE SECRET NETFLIX METRIC THAT GOT 1899 CANCELED — AND COULD RUIN TV FOREVER

...the easiest way to predict whether a Netflix show will be renewed or canceled is to look at its completion rate (aka, what percentage of people who watched a show actually finished it). If the completion rate is over 50 percent, the show gets renewed. If it’s under 50 percent... well, you can guess what happens then.

1899’s completion rate was reportedly just 32 percent.

Netflix doesn’t share this info with the public, but according to data analytics company Digital i (via What’s On Netflix), 1899’s completion rate was just 32 percent. If you’re interested in digging into the data, Forbes also has a breakdown of some other recent shows and their completion rates:

Heartstopper had a 73% completion rate and was renewed.
The Lincoln Lawyer had a 56% completion rate and was renewed.
Resident Evil spent a good amount of time at #1, but only had a 45% completion rate and was cancelled.
First Kill had a 44% completion rate and was cancelled.
Squid Game had a sky-high completion rate of 87% and was obviously renewed.
Arcane had a 60% completion rate and was renewed.
The Irregulars had a 41% completion rate and was cancelled.
Love Death and Robots had a 67% completion rate and was renewed.

-------------

Finish the shows you love, I guess.

It's all about the Benjamins, baby.

As someone who is bummed that 1899 got cancelled, there are so many different variables that might skew Netflix’s completion rate.

For example, in 1899’s case, it was just released in early November… just a week or two prior to Wednesday… which obviously was a hit and got renewed, add in the holidays… and the end of the NFL / College football season, I’d argue that there are only so many hours in a day.

[An4h0ny]

Originally Posted by HockeySlasher

As someone who is bummed that 1899 got cancelled, there are so many different variables that might skew Netflix’s completion rate.

For example, in 1899’s case, it was just released in early November… just a week or two prior to Wednesday… which obviously was a hit and got renewed, add in the holidays… and the end of the NFL / College football season, I’d argue that there are only so many hours in a day.

I agree and concur that simply using one metric to determine a show's viability is not only short-sighted and simplistic, it's a fundamental mishandling of the entire business model.

They need to spend more money on audience testing and marketing outreach.

A slow-starting show can become a global zeitgeist-y phenomenon at any moment.

So much $ spent on development & production. Then they just move on.

It's pretty insane.

[HockeySlasher]

Originally Posted by An4h0ny

I agree and concur that simply using one metric to determine a show's viability is not only short-sighted and simplistic, it's a fundamental mishandling of the entire business model.

They need to spend more money on audience testing and marketing outreach.

A slow-starting show can become a global zeitgeist-y phenomenon at any moment.

So much $ spent on development & production. Then they just move on.

It's pretty insane.

In 1899’s case, I believe there was a pretty large production cost for season 1. If I recall, it was the first Netflix show to utilize the Volume. You’d think that seasons 2 and 3 would have significantly less of a production cost after everything was set up for season 1 - even if there was

[Show spoiler]change of scenery in the last scene.

[JohnnyF]

Originally Posted by HockeySlasher

As someone who is bummed that 1899 got cancelled, there are so many different variables that might skew Netflix’s completion rate.

For example, in 1899’s case, it was just released in early November… just a week or two prior to Wednesday… which obviously was a hit and got renewed, add in the holidays… and the end of the NFL / College football season, I’d argue that there are only so many hours in a day.

There was also a little thing called the World Cup that people were watching. Couple that with shows just appearing without much advertising and you have a recipe for people discovering stuff later than a month and a half after release.

Netflix doesn’t understand that Seinfeld, Cheers and Night Court were all almost cancelled before the audience finally found the shows. And that was when there were barely any home video options!