Nielsen Prediction Thread for 22.02.08 (due Wednesday 20.02.08)

[Winn]

With the news piling up, we might be approaching an early end to this. I am not sure how many more weeks we will see numbers published, but I intend to keep this going for at least this week.

While the war may not yet be technically over, you could not tell from HD DVDs release slate. There are no exclusives this week. They do have the two neutral titles, A Girls Gone Wild title and First Look's The Amateur.

Blu-ray adds a moderately sized slate of exclusives. Most notable among them are Sony' We Own the Night, Buena Vista's Gone Baby Gone and Becoming Jane and Warner's No Reservations.

In regards to the news that could impact the numbers, the Best Buy and Netflix news came out on Monday and would cover the entire week. The Toshiba rumors started on Thursday and Wal*Mart dropped the bomb on Friday.


IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

The prediction period will close at 5 P.M Eastern time. That is 2 P.M. for those of you in Pacific time. This will get us ahead of the leaks. The numbers on February 22nd will cover sales from February 11th-February 17th, inclusive.

HD DVD
The Amateur (First Look)
Girls Gone Wild:Baby Bash-Live and Uncensored (Mantra)

Blu-ray
The Amateur (First Look)
Girls Gone Wild:Baby Bash-Live and Uncensored (Mantra)
Becoming Jane (Buena Vista)
Gone Baby Gone (Buena Vista)
We Own The Night (Sony)
No Reservations (Warner)
Over America In High Definition (Topics)
Over California In High Definition (Topics)

[Winn]

A healthy batch of perfect picks for the week:

The Don
jimsch42
fomoco04
Goodguy818
Slapper
LynxFX
unreal1080p
Nathan P
Razzy
Kairav
bageleaterkkjji
Imakida
Joe Fisher
pokerface

Congrats to all, especially Lunx.

Nielsen contest results for 02/15/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 81:19

NAME                Guess   Attempts   Avg. Score
Joe Fisher          81:19          1         0.00
pokerface           81:19          1         0.00
Kstrike             82:18          1         1.00
Imakida             81:19          4         1.25
bageleaterkkjji     81:19          3         1.33
56@Yamamoto         83:17          1         2.00
Blu-raider          79:21          1         2.00
DNR7265             83:17          1         2.00
edgebsl             79:21          1         2.00
hardcore_canadian   79:21          1         2.00
MacHaggis           79:21          1         2.00
swivel              79:21          1         2.00
user friendly       79:21          1         2.00
BluWave             78:22          3         2.33
JadedRaverLA        77:23          3         2.33
Kairav              81:19          4         2.50
SGRSBSKIER          78:22          4         2.75
mystiksuicide       75:25          4         3.00
ottscay             80:20          4         3.00
Pellaeon            83:17          4         3.00
Rup_Muk             80:20          3         3.00
MadScientist        84:16          1         3.00
MatrixS2000         78:22          1         3.00
sjy1969             78:22          1         3.00
Winn                80:20          4         3.25
Aygie               78:22          3         3.33
Clark Kent          82:18          3         3.33
digibob             82:18          3         3.33
FFObsessed          80:20          3         3.33
Irishwiseguy2006    80:20          3         3.33
Nathan P            81:19          3         3.33
Razzy               81:19          3         3.33
tuku                79:21          3         3.33
zmadMonk            79:21          3         3.33
BlueNeon            85:15          4         3.50
LynxFX              81:19          4         3.50
unreal1080p         81:19          4         3.50
york weir           78:22          4         3.50
grovey              80:20          2         3.50
jknuss01            80:20          3         3.67
Slapper             81:19          3         3.67
subgun              79:21          3         3.67
TheWave             82:18          4         3.75
w tanoto            77:23          4         3.75
L or S of Perfect?  76:24          4         4.00
bajor27             82:18          3         4.00
davidPS3            78:22          3         4.00
Glow007             79:21          3         4.00
kolasi              79:21          3         4.00
xmositox            86:14          3         4.00
Alloye              77:23          1         4.00
bassman614          77:23          1         4.00
UltimateFighter     77:23          1         4.00
patrick99           80:20          4         4.25
Goodguy818          81:19          3         4.33
jkwest              78:22          3         4.33
Lou-Cipher          82:18          3         4.33
Sonar5              82:18          3         4.33
blindcat87          82:18          4         4.50
fomoco04            81:19          4         4.50
GarettP             82:18          4         4.50
sj001               76:24          4         4.50
cory                79:21          2         4.50
gordon cunningham   76:24          2         4.50
Jackietreehorn      80:20          2         4.50
DJeffries           78:22          3         4.67
Ispoke              77:23          3         4.67
jimsch42            81:19          3         4.67
josurr              80:20          3         4.67
JPEncarnac          84:16          3         4.67
waled               80:20          3         4.67
Y3k Bug             80:20          3         4.67
klac                77:23          4         4.75
gand41f             82:18          4         5.00
Jim Morrison        83:17          4         5.00
MarekM              80:20          4         5.00
Zotar               82:18          4         5.00
AVBill              76:24          3         5.00
Jim L               79:21          3         5.00
Blubaru             75:25          2         5.00
darkwing            80:20          2         5.00
GTP                 82:18          2         5.00
Neo65               77:23          2         5.00
whoelse             76:24          4         5.25
CptGreedle          75:25          3         5.33
richterbon23        77:23          3         5.33
Ops2p               80:20          2         5.50
cabezon1184         80:20          3         5.67
CGYBLU              82:18          3         5.67
Denzelio            73:27          3         5.67
goodstuff           75:25          3         5.67
mhussung            84:16          4         5.75
Craig Ruchman       80:20          2         6.00
IfeelBlu            75:25          2         6.00
blu-ray-the-king    75:25          1         6.00
Fozziwig            83:17          4         6.25
GregBlu5            82:18          3         6.33
tiger roach         86:14          4         6.50
Uxi                 78:22          2         6.50
gre8t1              85:15          3         6.67
dobyblue            73:27          3         7.00
gearyt              85:15          3         7.00
jsb hburg           79:21          3         7.00
The Big Blue        77:23          3         7.00
The Don             81:19          3         7.00
blurayboy           83:17          2         7.00
crystalline blu     88:12          1         7.00
OnlyBLU             74:26          1         7.00
blujacket           84:16          3         7.33
bbg                 85:15          2         7.50
BluMonster          90:10          2         7.50
RickD               84:16          2         7.50
BillCable           80:20          3         7.67
cartman781          83:17          2         8.00
Xcom_Cheetah        85:15          2         8.00
Dalese              88:12          3         8.33
Living Near Shamu   84:16          2         8.50
WriteSimply         85:15          2         9.00
owa                 90:10          1         9.00
Rolo71              72:28          1         9.00
AAM                 91:9           1        10.00
Evashun             89:11          2        11.50
Stinkin Mushroom    67:33          1        14.00

Weekly Stats

Week	Picks	Perfect	High		Actual	Low		Mean	Median	Mode
1	77	5	99 (16) [31]	83	69 (14) [41]	83.12	82	82
2	124	6	99 (17) [82]	82	69 (13) [32]	84.31	84	84
3	145	2	90 (16) [141]	74	69 (15) [2]	82.76	83	85
4	123	14	91 (10) [41]	81	67 (14) [68]	80.24	80	80
*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

[The Big Blue]

100 / 0

[Rolo71]

91:9

[Elandyll]

With this week's anouncements, and a B2G1 going on ... I'd say

86:14

[Winn]

Ok, here is how this round is going to work. The game might end at any time. If we get up to 10 weeks, anyone who made 8 guesses will be prize eligible. The contest will automatically end at 15 weeks. Anyone with 12 guesses at that point is prize eligible. Anyone who made a full 15 guesses will have their worst guess removed for the final scoring for prizes.

There will only be prizes if people donate them. If you have an extra copy of a movie, feel free to let me know you want to add it to the prize pool.

SCORING RULES

There have been some questions about how scoring works. The score used to determine the winner of the contest is an average of all picks.

Tie breakers:

1- # of perfect picks.
2- # of picks off by 1.
3- # of picks off by 2.
4- Earliest perfect pick.
5- Earliest pick off by 1.
6- Earliest pick off by 2.
7- Coin toss.

[meckel]

i'll take 85:15

[cobwebb]

87:13

[patrick99]

85:15

[cartman781]

Originally Posted by The Big Blue

100 / 0

call me a pessimist, but I think it will be 95:5

[grovey]

85:15

[digibob]

93:07

[katharsis]

86:14

[goodstuff]

87:13

[unreal1080p]

-BAD HD DUD juju at the beggining of the week (Netflix & BestBuy)
-no releases for HD DUD
-Dudders freshly spent on the previous DUD BOGO (current promotions won't be very appealing... even for the most hardcore DUD fantards)

I say we get a new milestone with our first 90's

90 : 10


And for an advanced prediction for next week... even if there are no additional announcements... I'm going to make a bold prediction that DUD will NOT break the 20's during American Gangster week (81:19 but I reserve the right to change my prediction next week if need be).

[NexusFX]

The Amazon Deal is making me think high

89:11

[JAGUAR1977]

88-12

[w_tanoto]

may I ask what the releases for HD DVD are....

[ScarredLungs]

With the recent anouncements of walmart, i'd say 90:10 (even though the walmart decision is not in force for a few months) Once we hit 90:10, i doubt we'll ever see blu below 90 again!

[Kairav]

84:16