How plausible is it to replace blu-ray in the future?

[tron3]

I know this kind of thread has been done before, but this is sort of a new twist. This is to discuss the future of new technologies which might enhance or replace blu-ray one day.

I do NOT want to hear JACK about HDM d/l. Not only is it still a ways off, but all evidence points to it being a "pay per view" rental technology. Let's not compare apples to oranges. Hard media rules.

Most people are still running on 100mbit NIC's and cat 5 cable. 1000gb NIC's and cat 6 cable would be needed as a MINIMUM to get HDM d/l off the ground. Sure, we have tons of fiber to support those speeds now, but a single 1000Gb connection takes the place of ten 100mb users. Therefore, all existing fiber would serve a 10th of the former user base. While that industry is SPENDING billions in attempt to one day overturn blu-ray, the blu-ray industry will be MAKING billions.

Make no doubt about, there are people out there who do NOT want you to own movies. They want only pay-per-view. This is why Divx failed. If Divx was the only option for DVD-type movies, I am certain we would all still be using VCR's today. These kinds of people want to see the end of free TV. Come February 17, 2009 when the analog signal goes away, you think the cable and dish networks are going to sell converter boxes and HD antenna? Are you kidding? They are chomping at the bit for the potential influx of business. Bye-bye free TV, was nice knowing you.

Both myself and Sony have long touted blu-ray as the more "future proof" solution. Not only is it capacious enough to meet the needs of most any movie, the resolution and picture is nothing to sneeze at - even when 1440p becomes a reality. Therefore, a new 1440p format may be sneered at because there is nothing wrong with 1080p. You probably need a screen in excess of 60" to appreciate 1440p. I don't see the market for it being as great as HDTV and blu-ray today. It can't just be better, it has to LOOK AND SOUND better.

While I hope we can see BD75, and BD100 in the future, I think Holographic disc may be the future after blu-ray. Considering the phenominal capacity of Holographic disc, I believe a 3" disc could be enough and evolve into the new player standard. Decreasing the size of the wasted center hole could increase storage space. Look at the tray of ANY disc player, see that recessed area in the middle? That holds 3" disc. It is the next natural step in disc high capacity technology. Don't get me wrong, todays 4-3/4" disc isn't going away and will be supported for a LONG time.

Movies on a flash chip are also possible, but the cost of semi conductor memories are still high and need to drop WAY DOWN to compete. From records, to cd's to (HD) DVD, to blu-ray NOTHING comes close to the cheap production cost of hard pressed media. "flash movies" would be great because they could fit in your pants pocket like a USB dirve, and there would be no moving parts. The alternative to semiconductor memories is, you guessed it, more hard pressed media. A read-only memory stick.

Consider a portable blu-ray player, currently there is none that I can find. I'm sure they are coming and will have high power requirements. Face it, LCD is still a bulb based technology. But those screens suck batteries dry in a few hours. OLED is clearly the technology of choice here. However, even with OLED this is a still a device with moving parts and that eats battery life. Portable "Flash movies" with OLED screens is clearly the best we could hope for. But with smaller portable screens sizes they clearly WON'T be supporting anything better than 720p. Maybe 1080p if production can shrink the pixels enough.

But none of this will be possible unless the studios ALL buy into it at the same time. Thoughts?