Nielsen Prediction Thread for 07.03.08 (due Wednesday 05.03.08)

[Winn]

The wind down continues with HD DVD getting what may be it's last major hit and having the larger release slate for the week.

Paramount unleashes Beowulf on HD DVD, exclusively for now. It is joined by Warner's The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford as the other major release in a slate of 9 titles, including a box set of the three previously released episodes of Freedom from Bandai Visual along side the new release of the fourth episode.

Blu-ray gets Sony's release of the vampire thriller 30 Days of Night and the timed exclusive of Warner's new direct to DVD and Blu-ray animated Justice League movie as the major studios part of an 8 release schedule.

There are no neutral releases this week.

As always, thanks to manikin for maintaining the release schedule.


IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

The prediction period will close at 5 P.M Eastern time. That is 2 P.M. for those of you in Pacific time. This will get us ahead of the leaks. The numbers on March 7th will cover sales from February 25th-March 2nd, inclusive.


HD DVD
Dragon Tiger Gate (Tai Seng)
Beowulf (2007)(Paramount)
Rain in the Mountains (Vanguard Cinema)
The Brave One (Warner)
Freedom: 1-3 Giftset (Bandai Visual)
Freedom: 4 (Bandai Visual)
Cecilia & Bryn At Glyndebourne (Opus Arte)
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner)
Gustav Mahler: Symphony No. 2 Resurrection (EuroArts)

Blu-ray
30 Days of Night (Sony)
To Kill a King (Starz)
Beyonce: The Beyonce Experience - Live (Sony BMG)
Justice League: The New Frontier (Warner)
Led Zeppelin: The Song Remains the Same (Warner)
Intial D (Tai Seng)
Over America In High Definition (Topics)
Over California In High Definition (Topics)

[Winn]

Two perfect picks this week. Congratulations go out to:

grovey
getblu

Weekly Stats

Week	Picks	Perfect	High		Actual	Low		Mean	Median	Mode
1	77	5	99 (16) [31]	83	69 (14) [41]	83.12	82	82
2	124	6	99 (17) [82]	82	69 (13) [32]	84.31	84	84
3	145	2	90 (16) [141]	74	69 (15) [2]	82.76	83	85
4	124	14	91 (10) [41]	81	67 (14) [69]	80.24	80	80
5	121	0	99* (26) [121]	73	78 (-5) [0]	86.88	86	85
6	66	2	95 (18) [56]	77	68 (9) [8]	82.88	82	81

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

Nielsen contest results for 02/29/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 77:23

NAME                Guess   Attempts   Avg. Score
getblu              77:23          1         0.00
smiley              79:21          1         2.00
Nathan P            80:20          4         3.25
edgebsl             82:18          2         3.50
mystiksuicide       84:16          5         3.80
savage1984          81:19          1         4.00
SGRSBSKIER          71:29          6         4.33
Slapper             80:20          5         4.40
Kairav              84:16          6         4.67
ottscay             82:18          6         4.67
grovey              77:23          4         4.75
BluWave             81:19          5         4.80
JadedRaverLA        80:20          5         5.00
MGDTH               82:18          1         5.00
patrick99           80:20          6         5.33
Rup_Muk             82:18          5         5.40
Pellaeon            82:18          6         5.50
Irishwiseguy2006    89:11          4         5.50
pokerface           79:21          3         5.67
Jackietreehorn      74:26          4         5.75
FFObsessed          83:17          5         5.80
DJeffries           81:19          5         5.80
subgun              72:28          5         5.80
sj001               81:19          6         5.83
unreal1080p         81:19          6         5.83
GarettP             80:20          6         5.83
fomoco04            85:15          6         6.00
JPEncarnac          82:18          5         6.00
Ispoke              73:27          5         6.00
sjy1969             68:32          2         6.00
L or S of Perfect?  86:14          6         6.33
klac                75:25          6         6.33
Blu-raider          81:19          3         6.33
Fozziwig            80:20          6         6.50
Goodguy818          85:15          5         6.60
digibob             80:20          5         6.60
w tanoto            90:10          6         6.67
Denzelio            85:15          5         6.80
MarekM              81:19          6         7.00
Clark Kent          87:13          5         7.00
cabezon1184         83:17          5         7.00
blurayboy           81:19          4         7.00
user friendly       80:20          3         7.00
blindcat87          88:12          6         7.17
kolasi              87:13          5         7.20
goodstuff           72:28          5         7.20
blu-ray-the-king    78:22          3         7.67
dgator783           85:15          1         8.00
gearyt              85:15          5         8.20
gand41f             90:10          6         8.33
GregBlu5            87:13          5         8.60
TheRealBob          85:15          5         9.20
jsb hburg           91:9           5         9.40
OnlyBLU             89:11          2         9.50
Sonny               92:8           4         9.75
56@Yamamoto         92:8           3        10.00
TheEnd187           87:13          1        10.00
Dalese              88:12          5        10.20
Ops2p               91:9           4        10.75
MadScientist        91:9           3        11.67
WriteSimply         95:5           4        12.00
nomad2010           89:11          1        12.00
plee                70:30          2        12.50
Rolo71              90:10          3        13.33
FEP3108             90:10          2        15.00
Kayne314            92:8           1        15.00

[Winn]

Ok, here is how this round is going to work. The game might end at any time. If we get up to 10 weeks, anyone who made 8 guesses will be prize eligible. The contest will automatically end at 15 weeks. Anyone with 12 guesses at that point is prize eligible. Anyone who made a full 15 guesses will have their worst guess removed for the final scoring for prizes.

There will only be prizes if people donate them. If you have an extra copy of a movie, feel free to let me know you want to add it to the prize pool.

SCORING RULES

There have been some questions about how scoring works. The score used to determine the winner of the contest is an average of all picks.

Tie breakers:

1- # of perfect picks.
2- # of picks off by 1.
3- # of picks off by 2.
4- Earliest perfect pick.
5- Earliest pick off by 1.
6- Earliest pick off by 2.
7- Coin toss.

[w_tanoto]

as it is a beowulf week, I expect around 74:26

[dgator783]

73:27

[Blu-Raider]

75:25

[Rup_Muk]

With Beowulf coming out exclusively for the other side (at least for now) and an anticipated second strong week for American Gangster:

I'm going with 72:28.

Rup.

[56@Yamamoto]

83:17 for this week.

[jknuss01]

79:21

[Denzelio]

80:20

[Rolo71]

82:18

[BluWave]

I gotta go with 76:24 the last week they will hold us out the high 80's. We are gonna rule the world in mid march!!!!!!!!

[kolasi]

77-23

[goodstuff]

72:28 the firesales continue and Beowulf to be their last stand

[Zotar]

80:20

[grovey]

79:21

[cabezon1184]

81 - 19

[MadScientist]

88-12

[FFObsessed]

76:24

[Ops2p]

84/16