Did Blu-ray make a serious mistake?

[Deane Johnson]

Now that we're several days into CES, and nothing profound has happened with Blu-ray, was this a tactical error on Blu-ray's part?

I was thinking we'd see some major Blu-ray movie announcements, at least. True, we got a few, but to my thinking, less than I would have wanted if I were running Blu-ray and trying to win a war.

Players? We got a 2nd Gen Samsung for a $200 price drop. Typical for a new format, not a knockout punch. We needed a $499 player. Maybe that's not possible just yet.

LG's combi player doesn't count for anything at $1200. Besides, even if it were priced right, it would be pretty much format neutral.

The only good news for Blu-ray is that HD-DVD has shown nothing but wishful thinking and truth stretching at CES. Perhaps that's a net win for Blu-ray.

What am I missing?

[Josh]

The title announcements were pretty much a huge push by Blu-ray. The PS3 will always be the loss leader for Blu-ray just like the A1/2 will be the loss leader for HD DVD. No company is going to challenge that at this point.

[Longshot]

Originally Posted by Deane Johnson

Now that we're several days into CES, and nothing profound has happened with Blu-ray, was this a tactical error on Blu-ray's part?

I was thinking we'd see some major Blu-ray movie announcements, at least. True, we got a few, but to my thinking, less than I would have wanted if I were running Blu-ray and trying to win a war.

Players? We got a 2nd Gen Samsung for a $200 price drop. Typical for a new format, not a knockout punch. We needed a $499 player. Maybe that's not possible just yet.

LG's combi player doesn't count for anything at $1200. Besides, even if it were priced right, it would be pretty much format neutral.

The only good news for Blu-ray is that HD-DVD has shown nothing but wishful thinking and truth stretching at CES. Perhaps that's a net win for Blu-ray.

What am I missing?

You're missing a lot.

The reason all of us are here is movies. Plain and simple. The Bd studios have announced an impressive slate of movies through the 1st and 2nd quarters. Rest assured there is more to come. The avalanche will start with Casino Royale on March 13th and continue to gain momentum.

By declaring victory the BDA has now put the HD DVD camp on defense. A brilliant PR move. Hence I say they stole a page right out of MS playbook

In contrast what has HD DVD done? Announced a player at $599 that does tru 1080P. I'm sure it will sell like hotcakes to Joe six pack; their annointed savior. A rumored 51GB disc that is clearly a PR stunt and/or desperation move to woo Disney. My guess is it will never see the light of day. And finally every HD DVD zealot was sure that Disney would go nuetral along with Lionsgate and maybe Fox. Well it's a big 0 for 3! To many people (even BD supporters) are overlooking this.

Again this is all about content and for that reason alone HD DVD is a huge loser.

[blitz6speed]

Are you watching the same CES news we all are? Is there another CES in Istambul that we dont know about and you magically got linked to? I dont think BDA could have done better if they tried.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Deane Johnson

Players? We got a 2nd Gen Samsung for a $200 price drop. Typical for a new format, not a knockout punch. We needed a $499 player. Maybe that's not possible just yet.

We have a $499 BD player. It's the PS/3.

- The A/V mags rave about the PS/3. These are specialty magazines dedicated to A/V issues. And the reviewers admit they are clueless about gaming. So, they wouldn't recommend the PS/3 unless it was great.

- We have A/V specialty merchants on this forum that intent on stocking the PS/3 for customers. So, at some point it will be decently available for them to stock.

- It does 1080p. It does TrueHD. It will do DTS Master-HD. It will do DVD upconversion. It will probably do 1080p/24. And then, Sony will release a bunch of new things for it to do.

- In the meantime, there are 1.3 million, and counting, of these $499 BD players out there, and 75% intending to use it as their primary HD disc player.

Gary

[BTBuck1]

I have a feeling we wont see an under $500 pricepoint of Blu-Ray stand alone players until after the ps3's first price drop. Once that happens, you'll see plenty of players in the $299-$399 range.

[WriteSimply]

Announcing new players would also be bad PR for the BDA. July will see the mandatory cut-off of vanilla BD players to be replaced with BD-Live players.

If they announce more vanilla players now, the HD-DVD Forum is gonna use it to hype up their internet connectivity - which so far is great for firmwares.

BD-Live players must only be announced when the BDA can prove it on the CES floor that it will work the way it's supposed to work. If not, it's better to push the announcements as closer to July as possible. Again, no point in pushing more players if consumers are gonna be pissed when they think they just got duped. At least with expensive players, the early adopters KNOW what they're getting into.

Of course CES is not yet over. There may still be a few surprises left.


fuad
PS - I'm just using my powers of deduction. Not an insider!

[Longshot]

Fuad,

So when do you think we will see BD-Live players in the marketplace? After CEDIA in September?

[DavePS3]

I just bought a PS3. Very impressed all around but the unit does NOT upconvert regular DVD's according to Tech Support - although I haven't tried it yet myself. 5 Blu-Ray movies I bought look frickin' great except for the incredibly bad film rate judder in thr opening scene from Sahara. Made me dizzy.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by DavePS3

I just bought a PS3. Very impressed all around but the unit does NOT upconvert regular DVD's according to Tech Support - although I haven't tried it yet myself. 5 Blu-Ray movies I bought look frickin' great except for the incredibly bad film rate judder in thr opening scene from Sahara. Made me dizzy.

Ok, so why would you ask that here?
I never say this....but use the Search button NEWB!!

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by DavePS3

I just bought a PS3. Very impressed all around but the unit does NOT upconvert regular DVD's according to Tech Support - although I haven't tried it yet myself. 5 Blu-Ray movies I bought look frickin' great except for the incredibly bad film rate judder in thr opening scene from Sahara. Made me dizzy.

That is correct, it currently doesn't. But, Sony is using some of their finest A/V engineers to work on adding improvements to the PS/3. It's like a sandbox for them to play in.

There is so much excessive power in the PS/3. It can do 1920x1080p AVC @ 40Mbps. Imagine what is left over when you're decoding 720x480 MPEG-2 @ 10Mbps. They can write a software upconversion that is state of the art.

Gary

[Nismobeach]

As a proud PS3 owner I can also confirm that it currently does not have the ability to upconvert DVDs. That being said it may be something that is fixable via a future firmware upgrade.

[dialog_gvf]

We look forward to what else the PS/3 will do in the future.

They hope they can get a player that boots in less than 30 seconds, doesn't skip, and the HDMI works with the DVI input of their TOSHIBA television.

The main thing I see when I read people who have bought a BD player after owning the A1/A2 is that they are gun shy at the problems of HD DVD. They don't want to deal with the issues after watching flawless playback on the PS/3 (or all other BD players).

This performance difference (you get what you pay for) and the title difference (which is going to be absolutely massive) is going to make this a lock within six months.

Read Amir's comments about 51GB. It seems clear they are actually contemplating resetting HD DVD and try to launch it all over again with BD-like specs.

Gary

[JonasK]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Read Amir's comments about 51GB. It seems clear they are actually contemplating resetting HD DVD and try to launch it all over again with BD-like specs.

Gary

Do you have a link to that comment? It's sounds like the end of HD DVD...

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by JonasK

Do you have a link to that comment? It's sounds like the end of HD DVD...

Look at the insider thread. He doesn't come out an say anything specific. But, he is talking like this WILL happen, but not soon. And he sure doesn't seem to be calming fears about current compatibility.

Perhaps Microsoft has given Toshiba the "you can't win this without more bandwidth" speech. And, there is zero point of obsoleting existing HD DVD players if added bandwidth comes without added capacity.

Even Amir has said they wished the HD DVD bandwidth was higher. Despite all their best spin to push that it isn't important, and how they have the Statmux idea, this only makes the workflow process more expensive for the studios. And it only gains 2-3Mbps breathing room. Maybe. It's not hard to think about a scene that is both visually AND auditorially complex. The action/sci-fi/war film defines this scenario.

It is not clear that it is possible to ever have a 1.85/full-frame feature + PiP + 48/20 lossless audio in HD DVD. And that is a HUGE problem if you're always pressing the PiP and lossless decoding as being the vital differentiating features of HD DVD.

Gary