HD DVD sales argument

[ra1024]

I've seen where the HD DVD proponents are arguing that the sales numbers are skewed because there are fewer new releases on HD DVD so they don't have anything to buy and when the new releases hit, they will be back up.

I checked on eproductwars and noticed that in the top 10 listings there were 2 releases available in both formats. Both Babel and The Departed were new releases on pre order. In both cases Blu-Ray was significantly higher on a title to title comparison.

It seems to me that this contradicts their argument since both formats are on equal footing and shows that there is truly a higher demand for Blu-Ray. Can anyone think of something else that might cause these different sales ranks?

I'm interested in real assesments of what's going on and can see some validity in what they're saying. These 2 titles seem to show though that a limited release shcedule has a small effect compared to the difference in the consumer base the PS3 has brought.

Any thoughts?

[Maximus]

Even the 'argument' that BD has higher sales because of more releases is not valid, as new releases cause sales as a direct effect, that is what they are intended to do. It's not like the studios are releasing these titles out of the goodness of the hearts, they want higher sales for their format.

[phloyd]

The fact that there are more choices for BD means that any given title should be ranked lower for BD all else being equal.

If there is greater choice and the titles are still ranked higher for BD, it is doubly a nod to higher BD sales.

[Chris Beveridge]

Actually, Darin went through the release lists looking at things since early December and I believe Blu-ray only had one more release than HD DVD during that period. So the argument of less titles coming out doesn't hold. Less popular titles maybe, but not less physical titles.

[Chad Varnadore]

Next time you hear that argument, point out that the only way such is viable is if the only people buying HD DVDs are the same ones that adopted the format early - meaning no new adopters. If they were still bringing in new adopters, they should have no problem competing in sales. Such is evidenced by The Fifth Element and Underworld 2 still being some of the top sellers on BD.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by ra1024

I've seen where the HD DVD proponents are arguing that the sales numbers are skewed because there are fewer new releases on HD DVD so they don't have anything to buy and when the new releases hit, they will be back up.

If little is being made available for HD DVD, how can that not be a critical issue for a new format?

We read: "HD DVD would be winning if it had more content than BD" (duh!)

Universal is so far making promises, with no schedule. And I doubt you'll see anything come out until the recent player hole is plugged.

Gary

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Chad Varnadore

Next time you hear that argument, point out that the only way such is viable is if the only people buying HD DVDs are the same ones that adopted the format early - meaning no new adopters. If they were still bringing in new adopters, they should have no problem competing in sales. Such is evidenced by The Fifth Element and Underworld 2 still being some of the top sellers on BD.

That is true, I have not seen KK in any of these top 5/10 sales lists for HD DVD. For any new owner of HD DVD, this title is a must buy.

[ra1024]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

Even the 'argument' that BD has higher sales because of more releases is not valid, as new releases cause sales as a direct effect, that is what they are intended to do.

Sorry but I'm not sure I understand your point. I took their argument to mean that there was demand but nothing to fill it so if things were equal, HD woulnd't be getting beaten ( ie Uni's causing HD to fail, blu-rays not winning ). Don't get me wrong, I'm a BR fan and eagerly waiting for the hammer to fall (say PS3 Euorpe) but I'm interested in finding the truth in all claims.

One other interesting thing I found on EProductWars was the history for those 2 titles. In both cases clicking the "View Sales Rank History" showed that HD declined over time while BR remained constant or had a slight increase.

This to me looks like HD has a constant customer base while BR seems to have an increasing customer base.

[ra1024]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

That is true, I have not seen KK in any of these top 5/10 sales lists for HD DVD. For any new owner of HD DVD, this title is a must buy.

Great point. That seems to go right along with what I saw looking at their sales history.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by ra1024

Sorry but I'm not sure I understand your point. I took their argument to mean that there was demand but nothing to fill it so if things were equal, HD woulnd't be getting beaten ( ie Uni's causing HD to fail, blu-rays not winning ). Don't get me wrong, I'm a BR fan and eagerly waiting for the hammer to fall (say PS3 Euorpe) but I'm interested in finding the truth in all claims.

One other interesting thing I found on EProductWars was the history for those 2 titles. In both cases clicking the "View Sales Rank History" showed that HD declined over time while BR remained constant or had a slight increase.

This to me looks like HD has a constant customer base while BR seems to have an increasing customer base.

Hmm, what I meant was that them saying that BD only has more sales because of more new releases is illogical. Illogical arguments don't sit well with the Big Dog!

[ra1024]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

Illogical arguments don't sit well with the Big Dog!

lol. I'm the same way, I like to drill down till I get to the truth. When I sense a smoke screen, I bring out the big fans

[Chad Varnadore]

That's my point. HD DVD isn't growing. It's the same early adopters that bought into the format when it first came out that are perpetuating the format. Even when HD DVD was receiving a lot of new releases from Universal, sales had already leveled off and had been that way for months. For studios to percieve a demand, you've got to continue selling both new releases to the format and titles that have been out for months. Otherwise the market isn't growing, it's fully matured. And fully matured at this stage, means dead in the water.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Chad Varnadore

That's my point. HD DVD isn't growing. It's the same early adopters that bought into the format when it first came out that are perpetuating the format. Even when HD DVD was receiving a lot of new releases from Universal, sales had already leveled off and had been that way for months. For studios to percieve a demand, you've got to continue selling both new releases to the format and titles that have been out for months. Otherwise the market isn't growing, it's fully matured. And fully matured at this stage, means dead in the water.

Makes sense, atm there is no reason to buy into HD DVD. BD will keep growing as essentially every PS3 buyer is a BD buyer as well.

[ra1024]

Originally Posted by Chad Varnadore

That's my point. HD DVD isn't growing. It's the same early adopters that bought into the format when it first came out that are perpetuating the format.

Ok now I get it. MaxPower's right, it is an illogical argument since it's only valid if you assume the customer base is constant which is what they're trying to disprove.

[Chad Varnadore]

I personally wouldn't recommend buying into HD DVD at this time, unless you've just got to have Universal. Even then I'd give it till next CES to see if Universal decides to support BD or at least hold off until HD shows some new signs of life. In fact, I've put all my planned Universal purchases on hold too.

[Deciazulado]

Wise advice.

Some of this must be hurting Universal because that's what Im doing too. (But with DVD)

[Chad Varnadore]

I stopped buying DVD a year ago.

[scott1256ca]

I do not see how HD DVD can win this war. Maybe HD DVD isn't dead, but it is hemorrhaging badly. It is somewhat amusing to hear proponents say "I'd buy more HD DVD content if it were available" when the single biggest argument for BD in the last year was that higher studio support would translate into more content, and that content, not cost of players, would decide the outcome. With the ps3 (I own one) bringing the entry cost of players down, BD has momentum, more announced releases, more CE support etc.

Universal is putting out combo disks which I suspect won't have any interesting HDi support since the extras will be on the DVD side of the disk. In other words, they are cheaping out. I think they see the writing on the wall and are preparing to go neutral. I think there is a good chance they will release a BD this year, likely in Japan, and as soon as they do that, you can plant HD DVD. Once Universal blinks, Disney and Fox won't, and BD will be the only format to have all major studios.

If HD DVD could get Fox or Disney to blink first, it might breathe more life into the format, but I just don't see that happening.

Scott

[Polyh3dron]

Originally Posted by Chad Varnadore

I personally wouldn't recommend buying into HD DVD at this time, unless you've just got to have Universal. Even then I'd give it till next CES to see if Universal decides to support BD or at least hold off until HD shows some new signs of life. In fact, I've put all my planned Universal purchases on hold too.

I broke down and bought the 360 HD-DVD add-on just for Universal movies.. So far I've got KK and Casino and can't wait for Children of Men. But I have noticed the astronomical price of the HD-DVD combo discs. Tokyo Drift's price stopped me from picking it up even though I had heard that the IME stuff in it was really cool. If Universal is seriously going through with making 90% of their HD-DVD releases combo discs though I may not be buying very many Universal HD-DVDs except for the super must haves like Children of Men or Spielberg films.

HD-DVD zealots use price as a huge argument saying that Blu-Ray costs SO MUCH and then you bring up the PS3 and they ignore you. BDs cost the consumer pretty much the same amount and the uber-expensive Fox BDs don't even touch the prices for the combo discs.

[Spankey]

Here's The Latest Argument, from....surprise!...another microsoft employee. How much are they paying these guys to spread the talking points?