HD DVD surrenders by September

[HDTV1080P]

Not sure if this was posted before. David Carney the Executive Editor of CNET has made tech predictions for 2007. He predicts that HD-DVD camp might surrender by September 2007. What is surprising is that this information is posted on the Microsoft MSN webpage.

http://tech.msn.com/products/article...79606&GT1=9132

[KenThompson]

Wonder why he picked September. Maybe he has inside info on Universal.

[bluearth]

I agree with the article. They should surrender by September but they won't.

Toshiba and Microsoft will drag this out as long as possible, or should I say as long as it doesnt take money out of their wallets which I doubt will happen by this September.

I also agree we need a winner, fast. Microsoft has successfully muddied the HD movie format picture to the common consumer. That will in turn slow down the rate in which HD discs become popular.

Worst case scenario is Microsoft suceeds and HD movies discs become a perk.

[HDTV1080P]

The average consumer is reading articles about the format war. Some of these articles are good entertainment but only a few educate the customer that BLU-RAY is winning. The average uneducated customer will stick with DVD’s until there is a clear winner and people stop writing articles about the format war. The format war would end if Universal would just release on BLU-RAY. Hopefully we will not see any more combo players or both formats could coexist for years like DVD-Audio and Super Audio CD. If that is the only way to get Universal studio titles then the combo players will come.
What needs to happen is in a few years when people see over 1,000 movies on BLU-RAY in retail stores like Best Buy and very little on HD-DVD then people will buy more BLU-RAY. Some customers are smart and they already know BLU-RAY is winning when there are several models of BLU-RAY in the store and only one model or brand of HD-DVD players. Even WALMART has three BLU-RAY players and one HD-DVD player. Does RCA still make HD-DVD? I have not heard of any new models but I do see a RCA HD-DVD in WALMART. Looks just like the Toshiba model with the RCA name on it.

[Dave Mack]

MS doesn't want ANY format to win. They want them both to stagnate to clear the way for donloadable HD content. Watch...

[Blackraven]

I'm not sure for the US market (where HD-DVD it's at its strongest) but this is 100% TRUE FOR THE JAPANESE MARKET!!!

In JDM land, HD-DVD is inside the "coffin" and the nails have been in place. In less than a few months, the "hammer" will start pounding to mark the removal of HD-DVD in their country once and for all.

The rising sun will *burn* on HD-DVD. :P

[Longshot]

Universal is sucking wind. They lost over $40 million on Children of Men and another $25 million on the Good Sheperd. I don't see how they can continue to ignore BD. Let's hope the new management has a little more common sense.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Dave Mack

MS doesn't want ANY format to win. They want them both to stagnate to clear the way for donloadable HD content. Watch...

No question about it.

Originally Posted by HDTV1080P

Not sure if this was posted before. David Carney the Executive Editor of CNET has made tech predictions for 2007. He predicts that HD-DVD camp might surrender by September 2007. What is surprising is that this information is posted on the Microsoft MSN webpage.

http://tech.msn.com/products/article...79606&GT1=9132

As expected: If this all pans out, it'll essentially mean BD has 100 percent studio support, in effect, in time for the next big holiday season.

By that time, there will be plenty of second gen BD hardware from virtually all of the world's leading CE manufacterers, a hell of a robust library thanks to 90 percent studio support and the big exclusives like Fox, Disney, MGM, Sony Pictures and...oh yeah, you'll have a year old PS3 with a game library right about on par with where the 360's is now, except there will be some big name exclusives in there by Christmas of 07. A year into a game console's life makes all the difference in the world.

HD-DVD may not surrender outright, but I just can't see Universal sticking with this foolish BD snub through another big holiday season. That just defies common sense and good business to even consider it. I really don't think they're that stupid.

Beyond that: I appreciate the fact that hardcore HD-DVD zealots and supporters don't want to give up on the format, but clearly there are already obvious signs that those supporters are going to be "given up on."

I think "HD-DVD only" supporters are headed for a pretty big letdown by year's end.

[The Big Blue]

My thinking is that the writing will be on the wall by July. I came to this conclusion after looking at the DVD player sales chart they post at the digital bits.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Dave Mack

MS doesn't want ANY format to win. They want them both to stagnate to clear the way for donloadable HD content. Watch...

Agreed. HD DVD is a insufficient format that is meant to bridge the gap and encourage transition. By forcing the capacity to be capped, it means an easier target for downloads.

Blu-ray, on the other hand, is in phase 1 of it's possible uses. 50GB today, and perhaps 6-layer 200GB down the road for a 4Kx2K format. Blu-ray maintains the viability of the physical disc. HD DVD declares it on life support, which is Microsoft ultimate goal.

Gary

[Damon Payne]

Take note of my prediction: I'll be very surprised if there are surrendurs in 2007, but I hope you guys are right.

[KenThompson]

With the impending PS3 release in Europe and pre orders going like hotcakes its going to be another million players on the market. That means a wider gap in the 3 to 1 disc sales we have now. At some point Universal will cave, its inevitable. September could bring about a mad rush for kleenex products for all the tears shed by the hd fanbois,

[jrchisholm]

Originally Posted by KenThompson

Wonder why he picked September. Maybe he has inside info on Universal.

Just my opinion, but probably so they can release BD in time for 4th quarter holiday market.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

Take note of my prediction: I'll be very surprised if there are surrendurs in 2007, but I hope you guys are right.

The key to this guy's prediction relies on someone making a "graceful exit and bowing out."

Now, does anyone here honestly expect that from the likes of Microsoft?

Of course not. I don't think we'll see an outright surrender.

What I do think we'll see is moves like Universal throwing BD some bones come next Christmas time and, in essence, ending the format war anyways.

It won't be anything dramatic and I certainly can't ever see MS gracefully bowing out of anything.

We wouldn't be here now if that were even remotely possible.

[ps3andlovinit]

Originally Posted by JTK

It won't be anything dramatic and I certainly can't ever see MS gracefully bowing out of anything.

....

We wouldn't be here now if that were even remotely possible.

Your absolutely correct - this whole fiasco is at the feet of MS.

To benefit consumers? No.

To damage Sony, PS3 and thirdly the Studios themselves. Yes?

That's all this was ever about. Remember that next time you make a purchase. Vote with your wallets - just like you are doing for blu-ray.

[gandley]

well now HD-DVD has been fully DRM cracked (processing keys found, blu ray will look slightly more attractive with BD+.

As posted elsewhere, but this has to give BD+ the edge now

http://forum.doom9.org/showthread.php?t=121866&page=6

[Damon Payne]

BD+ is vaporware at this point, correct? Or at least we'll certainly hear that from the hd-dvd camp.

[Knight-Errant]

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

BD+ is vaporware at this point, correct? Or at least we'll certainly hear that from the hd-dvd camp.

Is BD50 still vapourware over there or not? I can never keep track of these things.