"DVD will fail"? Sounds a lot like Blu-ray

[Gimpenstein]

An interesting read.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-10013891-1.html

[MOONPHASE]

dvd has been out for a long time now its almost just about time for it to retire in another couple more years

[richieb1971]

Everyone I show Blu-ray to thinks its amazing. Well except one guy who said blurry images left something to the imagination .

The question is not whether its better or not, its whether people will buy it. The Bugatti Veyron is a better car than I got but I ain't got $750,000 to buy one. Most people see those kind of choices.

Example. I know 5 or 6 people that won't upgrade to a HDTV until the old one blows. When it does they will have an even bigger upgrade because LCD and plasma will have evolved beyond what it is now. Sometimes its timing.

[Marquoz]

Isn't what the article is quoting a hoax letter that somebody wrote as a joke?

[plee]

It's pretty sad reading some of the comments to the article about D/L and more BR bashing...same old arguments like the article...

[a-mac2848]

Originally Posted by plee

It's pretty sad reading some of the comments to the article about D/L and more BR bashing...same old arguments like the article...

i know, you would think digital downloads were the most popular things on earth if you just read the internet. its ridiculous, just po'd hd dvd fanboys i think.

[saprano]

People seem to forget DVD faced the same exact thing.

It's hard to imagine now, but when DVD first launched, its success was far from guaranteed. Back in 1996, there were even anti-DVD fanboys, and recently we ran into a rant--sarcastically retitled as "Why DVD would fail"--that struck us as eerily familiar to the current arguments against Blu-ray. Considering that DVD was such a huge success, it's worth looking at exactly how similar the two formats are at this early stage, and what that means for the future of Blu-ray.

1. Consumers aren't willing to rebuy movies

They will be the same tired movies that everyone already owns and will be loathe to buy again. [...] Because the titles available will be ones that people already own, they will naturally sell less than a new release that is still hot from the theaters. This will result in even a bigger cost for companies because the less they sell, the more each feature costs to implement on each title.

Right. Just like nobody repurchased their albums on CD or VHS tapes on DVD. This one seems to get dragged out for every new format and is quickly ignored once it takes off. We're not saying that people will rush to replace their DVDs with Blu-ray discs, but it seems obvious consumers eventually give in and repurchase media if the new format is worthwhile. The only difference we'd note is that well-kept DVDs don't deteriorate after use like VHS tapes did, so perhaps consumers will be somewhat less likely to replace their DVDs that still look as good as the day they bought them.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.



2. Not enough movies

All the companies involved with DVD are promising a catalog of 250 titles at the launch with maybe 50 to 100 actually available in the stores in the beginning. [...] And even if they do manage to finish 250 movies in time for the launch, what will those movies be? Top Gun? Rocky?

When any type of new format launches, early adopters are stuck with a pretty limited initial selection. It happened with DVD, and it happened with Blu-ray, which still only has about 650 titles available two years after its release. And we're seeing it all over again with criticism of the selection on online movie services, such as iTunes, Vudu, and the Netflix Player. This argument seems pretty shortsighted overall--if a new format offers a new compelling experience, the content will follow.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.



3. Can't record

Consumers will look at DVD and see that it doesn't record. That will instantly arouse suspicions in their mind that if the movies they want to watch are not available on the DVD discs, then the machine will be useless to them and a waste of money.

DVD recorders are old technology now, but when DVD first came out one of the knocks against it was that it didn't record like VHS--which was a killer feature before DVRs became ubiquitous. Blu-ray recorders are available now in Japan, but we haven't seen any signs of them coming to the U.S. in the near future. But the real issue is that Blu-ray recording just doesn't matter as much with high-def DVRs and so many TV series being released on high-quality DVD and Blu-ray sets.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray, but less people care.



4. Nobody cares about special features

Another question is, how many consumers actually want and use all the special features that DVD might offer? CD players offer all kinds of special programming and playback options, yet most people never touch these features. A cheap VCR is seen as too intimidating to most Americans. They just want to watch the movie, not select different versions, languages, and such. The LD market has proven that these extra features are desired, but only by a small segment of the population.

This point has been made about Blu-ray right here on CNET, in Executive Editor David Carnoy's Fully Equipped column. While I tend to agree that special features aren't a big draw for DVD or Blu-ray, it tends to be the icing on the cake, rather than the main draw of the format. DVD didn't succeed because of special features--and neither will Blu-ray--but they're a nice extra.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.



5. Picture quality isn't that much better

And now we get into the most controversial aspect of the entire DVD debate. Picture quality, or the lack there of. When DVD was first announced, it was claimed to offer D1 Master Tape quality. A short while later, the companies said it was much better than VHS but worse than LD. Now they have swung the other way again and are claiming D1 quality again. Quite simply, this will be impossible on commercially prepared, feature-length films.

It seems insane to argue that DVD isn't a huge leap over VHS in terms of image quality, but it's less crazy than you think. It takes content makers a while to fully understand how to use new technology, which is why many first-run CDs and DVDs are surprisingly mediocre. The same thing happened with Blu-ray--anyone who saw the first version of The Fifth Element on Blu-ray can attest to that. But now that we've seen a steady flow of exceptional looking Blu-ray discs, it's going to be harder to find people who aren't impressed by the image quality of Blu-ray on a big-screen HDTV.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.



6. The industry is just greedy

DVD is just a bad idea. It is being forced upon a uncaring and unwanted public and is an inferior product that simply isn't needed or desired. DVD exists only for one reason. Greed. Motion picture studios are always looking for a way to sell the same stuff over and over again and they think DVD is the answer.

More cynical observers might characterize Blu-ray as just the industry's latest attempt to make money on the same movies yet again. But the industry didn't introduce DVD out of the kindness of its heart--it did it to make money--and few people look back on successful formats like DVD and CD as a devious scheme by motion picture studios.

Verdict: Same argument now used against Blu-ray.



So, since the same arguments that didn't matter with DVD are now being used against Blu-ray, does that mean Blu-ray is destined to be as successful as DVD? Not quite. The simple fact is that Blu-ray's main draw is that it offers significantly better image quality than DVD, and whether consumers think that's a worthwhile upgrade will make or break the format. All the other arguments essentially don't matter, just like they didn't with DVD.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-...CmoreStories.0

[saprano]

Then you have people like this guy

You forgot to mention the availability of downloadable and DVR content.
Also, your argument about the Picture quality is not entirely correct. VHS to DVD was a big leep in quality and easily visible to eyes. But DVD to Blue-ray difference is not as great!!!

[CptGreedle]

A lot of negative comments on there. It is like every-time an article says something good about Blu-ray, there are a slew of people ready to shoot it down with weak arguments and opinions.

[Alan Gordon]

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

A lot of negative comments on there. It is like every-time an article says something good about Blu-ray, there are a slew of people ready to shoot it down with weak arguments and opinions.

Same thing happened with DVD...

~Alan

[CptGreedle]

I am sure these same people will forget they ever said anything bad after they have upgraded to HDTVs and start buying blu-rays.
I think the new integrated BD HDTV systems will be a BIG hit if the price is right.

[kx11]

if CD didn't die yet DVD won't but BD will become mainstream in 2009 as soon as those hdtv's prices goes in reasnoable price

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by saprano

Then you have people like this guy

I don't know about you, but the "leep" in picture quality from VHS to DVD was not that much different than the "leep" from DVD to "Blue-ray". To me they both had a profound difference.

[ryoohki]

Want to ear my first experience with HD movie download. It's on Xbox Live Service. I was curious to see Star Trek V in HD... so i download it. Once the download completed, i choose PLAY MOVIE... the screen POP and it say : You don't have the proper Codec to play this movie. Error Code : WHATEVER. I write an email to xbox support. They tell me it's because MS don't do the codec to play that file. IT'S YOU'RE FREAKING MOVIE FILE DUBASSES! not mine, 3-4 email were exchange, and they NEVER understood what i meant.

I will never rent another movie online ever... BUY FTW!

[richterbon23]

lol some of the comments people make at them bottom of the screen are just funny. More haters!

[Clark Kent]

A tipping point is coming where High Definition displays will become as essential to modern life as the cellphone. Once that happens Blu-ray sales will skyrocket.

[theprophecy247]

very good find, great article

[JadedRaverLA]

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

A lot of negative comments on there. It is like every-time an article says something good about Blu-ray, there are a slew of people ready to shoot it down with weak arguments and opinions.

There are always going to be a lot more people opposed to ANY new format as there are in favor of it. DVD players are dirt cheap and many people have sizeable DVD collections. The idea that now a "newer, better, faster, stronger" format is out there, and that its time to replace their entire collections, makes many people angry. It's simple human nature.

I'll be the first to admit (as a LaserDisc collector when DVD came out), that I railed against DVD, for many of the same reasons current DVD fans rail against Blu-ray. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter, though. The MASSES of consumers who don't voice their opinion on the internet determine whether a format succeeds or fails. That's why Blu-ray trounced HD DVD... which actually had a larger online following. The "real" consumers are becoming interested in Blu-ray -- not downloads, not VOD, not super-duper-DVD-upscaling... Blu-ray! And that's all that really matters.

For those with large DVD collections, its great that many manufacturers are putting effort into improving DVD upscaling, but that's for the collection you already own -- not the collection you are getting ready to build... on Blu-ray. Nothing any company does is going to change that.

[BirdManJr]

usually people that cant afford blu-ray like to bash it.
or somebody that put alot of there money into hd-dvd...or xbox 360

[Skunkster]

Digital downloads have a looonnnnggggg way to go. I (supposedly) have up to 8mbps speed from my cable provider, yet a mere 6.6 gb HD rental for my PS3 took over 8 hours to download. (And that was over the middle of the night when my speeds seem to be the fastest.) It's going to be a long time before those are ready for primetime.

P.S. The picture and audio quality were actually not too bad considering it was a full-length, feature film. Only 720p, though.