Blu-ray: Ten Years of Growth Left?

[J_UNTITLED]

From news.sel.sony.com (Sony Electronics Blog)

- "I’ve been amazed at recent news reports from various sources (some expected, some surprising) either dismissing, suggesting slow sales or even predicting the near-term demise of the Blu-ray Disc format.

Now, I can understand why Microsoft and Toshiba would not be immediate adopters of the format (although I predict market demand will eventually persuade them otherwise) and try to move the discussion onto networked content and DVRs, but what throws me is a recent comment by a European marketing manager of Samsung, the world second-largest seller of BD players (after Sony), who said to the press that the format only "has five years left."

In my opinion, he couldn’t be further from the truth.

First of all, there are millions of BD-based PlayStation 3 videogame consoles in consumers’ homes around the world and this number is growing fast as the device is introduced to new global markets and to new consumers every day. I believe the value of this product is only going to increase for many years to come — perhaps a decade — as developers realize the true power of PS3 in the new games they create, and as the device’s real world features like Blu-ray compatibility blend with new virtual and, yes, networked world features like PSN and Home.

Second, Hollywood has only scratched the surface as far as Blu-ray movie and television titles are concerned. As we witnessed with DVD, you can expect thousands and thousands of high-definition titles to becoming to a Best Buy, Wal-mart and Blockbuster near you — not to mention via the mail through Netflix.

Third, consumers by the millions are making the digital transition and purchasing fabulous flat-panel HDTV sets, including Sony’s high-performing BRAVIA LCD line. They’re investing hundreds and, in many cases, thousands of dollars for these sets, which feature full HD, 1080p resolution. And once they have HDTVs like these, you better believe they’ll invest a few hundred dollars more for a dedicated Blu-ray player or PS3 console to get the most out of their precious new home entertainment acquisitions.

And fourth, while the world of networked entertainment is now emerging and Sony will be one of the leaders in its emergence, the reality of getting full high-definition video content quickly and efficiently downloaded to millions of American homes around the country where broadband is still evolving (not to mention many countries around the world) is still a ways off.

With all of this said, I believe the Blu-ray format will not only coexist with the networked era, but will actually enhance it for many years to come. In fact, you’ll see it evolve this way in new products from Sony and, I suspect, others, including some of the early naysayers.

Oh, and for those expressing doubts about BD player sales, while we’d always like more, at Sony Electronics here in the U.S. we are doing quite well in this regard. And I encourage you to check out the latest models featuring BD Live, which are just the start of the format’s embrace of networked connectivity and benefits for consumers."