If the PS3 fails...

[mikejet]

This is not an anti-PS3 thread. This is a serious question. If the PS3 were to fail would it be in Sony's best interest to still go forward with the PS4?

Other companies have come and gone in the gaming industry and some have come out of it stronger.

Atari - Jaguar(Currently a penny stock)
SNK - Neo Geo(Still makes software)
Panasonic - 3D0(Left gaming)
NEC - Turbografx(Left gaming)
Sega - Multiple systems before changing to software only(Stronger than before)

I'm not bashing the PS3 here. I just want to know honest opinions. At the current rate it may be a while before the PS3 catches up.

Thoughts?

[MoPe]

Define fail..

[darwin316]

Sony will still make the PS4, regardless of how the PS3 does.

Just remember one thing about the previous console race, Nintendo was dead last to both the PS2 and Xbox. Now it's kicking @$$ and taking names

[dvd_mazter]

Although I'm a 360 man, I am definitely getting a PS3 soon because I need a second blu-ray player plus there is some good software out now. The PS3 won't fail because Blu-ray technology took off, if HD-DVD had won, it would have been a different story.

[jadedeath]

That would seem to imply that the Ps3 would fail where it has already succeeded.

One of the main reasons for the Ps3 is to push Blu-Ray. In that it has already succeeded admirably.

Let's say that the Ps4 comes out in 5 years. That's 5 years of Sony getting money from selling Blu-Ray. Let's do a little math, even if Sony gets $0.30 for each Blu-Ray sold, {we'll just use this years numbers} they've sold 22 million Blu-Ray this year. {not including the Dark Knight numbers} That's 6.6 million bucks. Hell, just on the 600,000 Dark Knight that got sold it's 180,000 bucks.

Now note that I have no clue what Sony gets per Blu-Ray but $0.30 isn't that much considering it's a $30 Blu-Ray. It's only about 10% or so.

Now since Blu-Ray has gone gangbusters since Black Friday, over the next 5 years Blu-Ray is likely to push into the Billion dollar range for Sony.

That's also just including movies. How many games have sold on Blu-Ray for Sony? {which they get more for by far}

I believe also that you're looking at it by saying that if Sony's PS3 doesn't beat the 360 for sheer numbers of units sold that it has failed. That's simply just not true. That being the case, then both the 360 and the PS3 have failed already compared to the numbers that the Wii is bringing in. Aside from the fact that the Wii is looking to MORE than top 100 million worldwide they make something like 6 bucks on each unit sold. That's 600 million just on the console itself, not including the nunchucks, wiimotes, games etc. Even if they only get 0.30 or so from games or the accessories.

So, in the end, the PS3 is already successful. It did what it was created to do, win the High Def war. Now with royalties and such Sony is in a position to laugh, if they do worse than break even considering the R&D costs that the PS3 set them back, I'd be horrendously surprised.

Edited to add: If anything I can see Microsoft backing out of the console race, not because I don't like 360 or anything {I'd already own one if only they were reliable} but because they have yet to make ANY money on their systems. They second they get close to breaking even on the regular Xbox they dump it cold turkey. The PS2 is still selling strong for Sony and they're making money on each console sold. I might even be surprised if they cut off the PS2 before the Ps4 comes out. Once the Ps4 comes out all bets are off.

Logan

[Maximus]

Depends on what you mean by fail.

Atm PS3 isn't anything like a failure...

[Forrestandjen07]

Originally Posted by jadedeath

That would seem to imply that the Ps3 would fail where it has already succeeded.

One of the main reasons for the Ps3 is to push Blu-Ray. In that it has already succeeded admirably.

Let's say that the Ps4 comes out in 5 years. That's 5 years of Sony getting money from selling Blu-Ray. Let's do a little math, even if Sony gets $0.30 for each Blu-Ray sold, {we'll just use this years numbers} they've sold 22 million Blu-Ray this year. {not including the Dark Knight numbers} That's 6.6 million bucks. Hell, just on the 600,000 Dark Knight that got sold it's 180,000 bucks.

Now note that I have no clue what Sony gets per Blu-Ray but $0.30 isn't that much considering it's a $30 Blu-Ray. It's only about 10% or so.

Now since Blu-Ray has gone gangbusters since Black Friday, over the next 5 years Blu-Ray is likely to push into the Billion dollar range for Sony.

That's also just including movies. How many games have sold on Blu-Ray for Sony? {which they get more for by far}

I believe also that you're looking at it by saying that if Sony's PS3 doesn't beat the 360 for sheer numbers of units sold that it has failed. That's simply just not true. That being the case, then both the 360 and the PS3 have failed already compared to the numbers that the Wii is bringing in. Aside from the fact that the Wii is looking to MORE than top 100 million worldwide they make something like 6 bucks on each unit sold. That's 600 million just on the console itself, not including the nunchucks, wiimotes, games etc. Even if they only get 0.30 or so from games or the accessories.

So, in the end, the PS3 is already successful. It did what it was created to do, win the High Def war. Now with royalties and such Sony is in a position to laugh, if they do worse than break even considering the R&D costs that the PS3 set them back, I'd be horrendously surprised.

Logan

all that is great in all

but that is IF blu ray can hang on, and get more popluar outside of its current audience, becasue if Blu ray dies , or does not catch on, then ps3 has problems

[jadedeath]

Originally Posted by Forrestandjen07

all that is great in all

but that is IF blu ray can hang on, and get more popluar outside of its current audience, becasue if Blu ray dies , or does not catch on, then ps3 has problems

That's a pretty big undefinable *IF* you're using there.

Blu-Ray is already catching on. Dark Knight has had the biggest first day sales of any Blu-Ray in existence and is poised to hit 1 million sold by the end of the year. It also hit about 20% of the number of movies sold for the title.

How do you define 'not catch on'? Because it appears that it *IS* catching on.

Logan

[Crim122]

Originally Posted by jadedeath

That would seem to imply that the Ps3 would fail where it has already succeeded.

One of the main reasons for the Ps3 is to push Blu-Ray. In that it has already succeeded admirably.

Logan

Only reason I got a PS3

[Forrestandjen07]

Originally Posted by jadedeath

That's a pretty big undefinable *IF* you're using there.

Blu-Ray is already catching on. Dark Knight has had the biggest first day sales of any Blu-Ray in existence and is poised to hit 1 million sold by the end of the year. It also hit about 20% of the number of movies sold for the title.

How do you define 'not catch on'? Because it appears that it *IS* catching on.

Logan

Because there are many many people who have HDtvs

but just do not wish to get into another medium becuase of all the dvds they have

or it is to expensive to buy all those HD movies

Im sure HDDVD thought the same thing, and then blu ray came out. we never know whats around the corner etc.,

[mikejet]

I'm just trying to put it in perspective with the current global economic outlook. I'm suprised I haven't seen any layoff announcements from MS yet either. I've been waiting for them to hit the news wires.

[jadedeath]

Originally Posted by Forrestandjen07

Because there are many many people who have HDtvs

but just do not wish to get into another medium becuase of all the dvds they have

or it is to expensive to buy all those HD movies

Im sure HDDVD thought the same thing, and then blu ray came out. we never know whats around the corner etc.,

I'm not sure what your point is.

The 20% thing for the Dark Knight proves that Blu-Ray is catching on. And if Dark Knight hit 20% by the time something like Watchmen comes out {likely by next holiday season} it'll probably be at least 25-30%.

And it keeps getting bigger the further along the whole thing goes.

Logan

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by mikejet

I'm just trying to put it in perspective with the current global economic outlook. I'm suprised I haven't seen any layoff announcements from MS yet either. I've been waiting for them to hit the news wires.

You won't hear anything from MS. Their core businesses (their OS/Office departments) aren't dependent on consumer sales like Sony's. They will get their Windows licence money at the end of the month whether Dell sell a single PC or not.

Maybe in non-core divisions, but even that is unlikely...

Companies like Sony are effected because they are massively exposed to the WW consumer market, I mean look at their TV range, the top model costs something like $6500, a couple of years ago there would have been plenty of people buying that TV. Today, not so many, and these are the products that make money and subsidise the low cost products.

As for PS3 failing or not, well it is highly unlikely that the PS3 will ever be deemed a complete failure like GCN. The price is still so high that a very, very large number of people are waiting for an inevitable price cut. Now, if there was a price cut and the PS3 saw similar months like the one that just passed, then sure you can call the PS3 a failure. On balance though, whenever Sony have cut the price PS3 sales have increased, and I can't see that stopping.

Seriously, you try and sell something for $399 when a competing product does most of the same stuff for $199!

[Forrestandjen07]

Originally Posted by jadedeath

I'm not sure what your point is.

The 20% thing for the Dark Knight proves that Blu-Ray is catching on. And if Dark Knight hit 20% by the time something like Watchmen comes out {likely by next holiday season} it'll probably be at least 25-30%.

And it keeps getting bigger the further along the whole thing goes.

Logan

But that is just one film

which was pretty much destined to happen anyway considering how well it did in the theaters.

and the disc prices need to come down in price before others upgrade

there many HD users out there with out intrest in the blu ray format, or cant justify spending $30+ on 1 movie

The point is we just dont know what well happen in 5 years, and cant expect it to be as sucesful as dvd.

but my original point is the biggest thing keeping the PS3 alive is Blu ray. But if something happens and Blu ray dies, then Ps3 well be in trouble

[Crim122]

I think its going to be a while for BD to take of BIG with movies being so expensive, even movies I would love to buy I wont buy because they are to pricey...and I am figuring the only reason they are still so expensive is because the technology to make everything better is still new and a long process or w/e.

Which is why ATM I am just transfering over my DVDs to BD

[quexos]

Companies have a strange definition of failure. Let's just say for argument's sake that in the end there will be:

30 million PS3 sold
40 million 360's sold
50 million Wii's sold

We'll then hear that Sony failed, but if we had

25 million PS3 sold
20 million 360's sold
15 million Wii's sold

We'll hear Sony is the winner.

And I don't understand that cause it would seem that all that matters is to sell more than the competition regardless of amounts actually sold.

[toef]

Originally Posted by jadedeath

Let's say that the Ps4 comes out in 5 years. That's 5 years of Sony getting money from selling Blu-Ray. Let's do a little math, even if Sony gets $0.30 for each Blu-Ray sold, {we'll just use this years numbers} they've sold 22 million Blu-Ray this year. {not including the Dark Knight numbers} That's 6.6 million bucks. Hell, just on the 600,000 Dark Knight that got sold it's 180,000 bucks.

I assume/hope it's more than 30 cents, because if Sony only made $6 million this year from BD, I think they'd consider that a failure, to say nothing of all the BD related costs they've incurred.

Edit: Also, as someone else has mentioned, I think people may have over-estimated the potential for HD movies. Sure, pretty much everyone here on this forum can appreciate the HD audio and video, but we're still in the minority.

The switch from VHS to DVD was more than just "DVD looks and sounds better". A DVD allowed us to easily skip ahead, or quickly jump back in a movie. Or pause it. Or add/remove all sorts of subtitles, etc. The discs would look good every time (vs a VHS which seemed to get crappier the more you watched it). Basically, lots of benefits to upgrading.

And even though there might be more to BD than upgraded sound and picture, to most people, that's all it is.

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by jadedeath

I'm not sure what your point is.

The 20% thing for the Dark Knight proves that Blu-Ray is catching on. And if Dark Knight hit 20% by the time something like Watchmen comes out {likely by next holiday season} it'll probably be at least 25-30%.

And it keeps getting bigger the further along the whole thing goes.

Logan

This doesn't at all mean that blu-ray is in 20% of homes. It just means that those early adopters who have already purchased blu-ray players are ALSO much more likely to buy new release movies. Last I read...... blu-ray wasn't even in the homes of 20% of actual hdtv owners..... and hdtv just recently broke the 50% threshold itself.


I don't see the PS3 failing any more than I see the Wii or the 360 failing.... but I don't see them releasing another $600 behemoth next go around.

[jadedeath]

Originally Posted by Forrestandjen07

But that is just one film

which was pretty much destined to happen anyway considering how well it did in the theaters.

It's not the number sold, it's the percentage that matters.

People bought more Blu-Ray vs DVD than ever before on ANY title. Which means that with the sales of Blu-Ray players lately that said percentage is more likely to go up than down.

and the disc prices need to come down in price before others upgrade

Not sure how much further they CAN go down considering that it's a new technology only 2 years out of the gates.

The player prices have been on steady decline and so have disk prices.

I've also never really understood the price problem. Especially since the prices of HDTV's aren't exactly consumer friendly.

there many HD users out there with out intrest in the blu ray format, or cant justify spending $30+ on 1 movie

Then why did they spend $1000+ on one television?

The point is we just dont know what well happen in 5 years, and cant expect it to be as sucesful as dvd.

Going from 4% to 10% in less than a year is a pretty big jump.

but my original point is the biggest thing keeping the PS3 alive is Blu ray. But if something happens and Blu ray dies, then Ps3 well be in trouble

I don't see Blu-Ray dying. Few people do. {unless you're a mod at AVS forum}

Logan

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by mikejet

This is not an anti-PS3 thread. This is a serious question. If the PS3 were to fail would it be in Sony's best interest to still go forward with the PS4?

Defining failure is important.

(1) Isn't the #1 console of this gen
(2) Doesn't beat the Xbox 360
(3) Isn't profitable

Currently the PS/3 is profitable for Sony. For businesses usually #3 is what counts. #1 and #2 are the business equivalent of taking your marbles and going home.

Gary