Will this recession turn into a depression? - Blu-ray Forum

Uniquely · 03-03-2009, 04:59 PM

One definition of a depression is an economic downturn that last for at least 3 years, has 10% unemployment, and at least one quarter of negative 10% growth. Currently, we are 15 months into this recession (already the second longest recession since WWII) we have 7.9% unemployment, and we have seen 6.2% negative growth. It would seem we could be close to meeting the technical definition of a depression.

Does anyone think this recession will reach depression status? Where do you think the bottom is?

Please do not get political. I think we can discuss the depth of the recession without getting into who we think caused the recession, who we think can pull us out, etc. etc. etc. I think this is a good topic to discuss as it can/does affect us all, but this thread will get locked in a hurry if it becomes political at all; so please limit discussion to how bad you believe the economy will get before it starts to get better.

jkwest · 03-03-2009, 05:04 PM

Uniquely · 03-03-2009, 05:06 PM

You are right..... but I have faith that folks here can be adult enough to discuss this topic without getting political. But then again.... I've always been an optimist.

quexos · 03-03-2009, 05:07 PM

I know the United States is a huge country, a world of its own but I think it is worthy of notice to say that this financial crisis is hitting pretty much the whole world. Over here in Europe we feel the pinch as well and it is the same weird music coming from governments over here about sending countless billions of Euros to big companies but doing little to nothing for the people.

mikejet · 03-03-2009, 05:08 PM

Considering everything that has already happened and the current unemployment rate, this current crisis is worse than the Great Depression.

It may not seem like it to people with current jobs but things will get a lot worse before they get better.

mikejet · 03-03-2009, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by quexos

I know the United States is a huge country, a world of its own but I think it is worthy of notice to say that this financial crisis is hitting pretty much the whole world. Over here in Europe we feel the pinch as well and it is the same weird music coming from governments over here about sending countless billions of Euros to big companies but doing little to nothing for the people.

I feel really bad for the horrible decisions made in Iceland. That is probably the worst of the countries hit by this crisis.

Uniquely · 03-03-2009, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikejet

Considering everything that has already happened and the current unemployment rate, this current crisis is worse than the Great Depression.

It may not seem like it to people with current jobs but things will get a lot worse before they get better.

We haven't sunk to the "technical" definition of depression yet... BUT you can't really determine these things until after the fact.... so you could be right that we are already in a depression. I do think it is likely to get much worse before it gets better. This isn't your average recession. I do predict that unemployment will exceed 10% before this is over. The only marker of a TRUE depression that I feel unsure we will hit would be the negative 10% growth.

Also.... I don't think we are near as bad off as the Great Depression..... nor are we likely to get there. During the Great Depression... we had 30% unemployment.... banks failed and there was no FDIC to insure funds then... so when the banks failed people just lost their money. Also there was no unemployment insurance.... so if you lost your job you were totally dependent upon the kindness and charity of others.

vamsilak · 03-03-2009, 05:17 PM

we are in change of everything
change of:
political ground
economic platform
Era in the century
technical aspects
reforming financial institutes
and mainly big change in human history
baby boomers
upcourse its worst than great depression
this is the times to pull together as families,friends
we are new generation with new ideas
come people
i know the people who had jobs won't feel it that much but they are also thinking about the job security and jobloss

mikejet · 03-03-2009, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robinandtami

We haven't sunk to the "technical" definition of depression yet... BUT you can't really determine these things until after the fact.... so you could be right that we are already in a depression. I do think it is likely to get much worse before it gets better. This isn't your average recession. I do predict that unemployment will exceed 10% before this is over. The only marker of a TRUE depression that I feel unsure we will hit would be the negative 10% growth.

Also.... I don't think we are near as bad off as the Great Depression..... nor are we likely to get there. During the Great Depression... we had 30% unemployment.... banks failed and there was no FDIC to insure funds then... so when the banks failed people just lost their money. Also there was no unemployment insurance.... so if you lost your job you were totally dependent upon the kindness and charity of others.

Different measurements need to be used. For the longest time the definition of a Recession was a decline in the GDP for two straight quarters. This is very misleading. Since our GDP had been growing steadily it was not technically a Recession.

Because of this things slipped far past where they should have been and the economy became over inflated with these huge horrible bets based on faulty data.

The traditional thinking was that we should lower interest rates to spur the economy. By lowering rates banks would, theoretically, lend more. Well banks are so far burned by the crisis that no one wants to lend even though the rate is at .25%.

The main problem though isn't the recession. It's the possibility of financial warefare that can be conducted by nations that hold our bonds. China in particular can cripple us and inflation would skyrocket and it would probably be the worst time that the US has ever seen.

We will see what happens but right now, with Toyota even asking Japan for a bailout, everything is uncertain.

SellmeyourDVD · 03-03-2009, 08:02 PM

Imo we have a little less than 800 billion reasons to think we'll be ok again 2 years from now.

dpomp · 03-03-2009, 08:07 PM

i thought we had a topic about this before and it got shut down before anyone even posted in it.

Uniquely · 03-03-2009, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dpompeo

i thought we had a topic about this before and it got shut down before anyone even posted in it.

Maybe they decided to give this one a chance and see if people would stay within the narrow parameter of just discussing where we think the bottom is?

So far so good!

dpomp · 03-03-2009, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robinandtami

Maybe they decided to give this one a chance and see if people would stay within the narrow parameter of just discussing where we think the bottom is?

So far so good!

kudos.

my vote goes for 'no'

cartman781 · 03-03-2009, 08:33 PM

I don't think we will get anywhere near as bad as the 1930s era depression was and that is the measurement by which I use when people keep saying we are in a depression.

assydingo · 03-03-2009, 08:33 PM

It's super bad and seems to get worse instead of better... so I'd say yes =/.

Uniquely · 03-03-2009, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman781

I don't think we will get anywhere near as bad as the 1930s era depression was and that is the measurement by which I use when people keep saying we are in a depression.

I agree that it won't get that bad...... however... that was THE GREAT depression.... emphasis on GREAT. It was very bad even by the standards of a depression.

The thing about The Great Depression was that the stock markets crashed, and it was almost a year after that the the masses began to feel the pain and mass unemployment and bank failures ensued. This go around we seem to be having a cycle of stock market drops, layoff's, small stock rebounds followed by larger drops. Who knows when this cycle will stop?

Bigdog · 03-03-2009, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by assydingo

It's super bad and seems to get worse instead of better... so I'd say yes =/.

Thats because we are just at the begining, we have some huge company's in this country basically being fed a life line of tax payer money to stay afloat. Sooner or later that house of cards is going to come crashing down and god help us when it does!

Uniquely · 03-03-2009, 08:41 PM

Just a reminder that I will continue to post as long as this thread is allowed to remain... so that thread scanners don't miss the point of this thread.

We are only discussing how bad we think this economy will get before we start to see improvements. We are not discussing how we got here, or how we can get out. We are not discussing who we blame or who we think can help.

Please steer clear of politics.... which everyone has done a GREAT job of so far!

Septimus Prime · 03-03-2009, 10:12 PM

I don't think anyone will ever officially declare that we are in a depression, since the second that happens, people will be pulling their money out of the economy, and the depression will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

So I vote no.

pacificvibes · 03-03-2009, 10:14 PM

I honestly dont know what to think...ABC 7 did a report from CA, my state and they said that we are in for the worst of it...Im 19 turning 20 and the only thing I can do is keep going to school since there arent any jobs to be found. I dont know if we can call it a depression but in my mind it sure feels like its going that way.

View Poll Results: Do you believe this recession will reach depression status?
Yes	33	45.21%
No	40	54.79%
Voters: 73. You may not vote on this poll

03-03-2009, 04:59 PM	#1
Uniquely Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Sep 2008 Location:Mobile, AL Home Theater Gallery:14 Blu-ray collection:171	Will this recession turn into a depression? One definition of a depression is an economic downturn that last for at least 3 years, has 10% unemployment, and at least one quarter of negative 10% growth. Currently, we are 15 months into this recession (already the second longest recession since WWII) we have 7.9% unemployment, and we have seen 6.2% negative growth. It would seem we could be close to meeting the technical definition of a depression. Does anyone think this recession will reach depression status? Where do you think the bottom is? Please do not get political. I think we can discuss the depth of the recession without getting into who we think caused the recession, who we think can pull us out, etc. etc. etc. I think this is a good topic to discuss as it can/does affect us all, but this thread will get locked in a hurry if it becomes political at all; so please limit discussion to how bad you believe the economy will get before it starts to get better.

03-03-2009, 05:17 PM	#8
vamsilak Banned Member since:Feb 2008 Trading Score:1	we are in change of everything change of: political ground economic platform Era in the century technical aspects reforming financial institutes and mainly big change in human history baby boomers upcourse its worst than great depression this is the times to pull together as families,friends we are new generation with new ideas come people i know the people who had jobs won't feel it that much but they are also thinking about the job security and jobloss Last edited by vamsilak; 03-03-2009 at 05:20 PM.

Similar Threads
thread	Forum	Thread Starter	Replies	Last Post
A Recession? Not on what WE love	Blu-ray Technology and Future Technology	RickM	4	07-23-2008 11:37 PM
Depression: Star Trek Still Assimilated By The Hd-dud Collective	General Chat	Sean4000	7	11-29-2007 04:10 AM
PS3 - turn off the turn on feature on the controller?	PS3	regdent	17	09-10-2007 10:44 PM

03-03-2009, 05:04 PM	#2
jkwest Off-Topic King Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Northern California PSN Id: jkwest5 Blu-ray reviews:1 Trading Score:20

03-03-2009, 05:06 PM	#3
Uniquely Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Sep 2008 Location:Mobile, AL Home Theater Gallery:14 Blu-ray collection:171	You are right..... but I have faith that folks here can be adult enough to discuss this topic without getting political. But then again.... I've always been an optimist.

03-03-2009, 05:07 PM	#4
quexos Banned Member since:May 2007 Location:Brussels, Belgium	I know the United States is a huge country, a world of its own but I think it is worthy of notice to say that this financial crisis is hitting pretty much the whole world. Over here in Europe we feel the pinch as well and it is the same weird music coming from governments over here about sending countless billions of Euros to big companies but doing little to nothing for the people.

03-03-2009, 05:08 PM	#5
mikejet Banned Member since:Sep 2008 Location:Los Angeles, CA Blu-ray reviews:5 Trading Score:29	Considering everything that has already happened and the current unemployment rate, this current crisis is worse than the Great Depression. It may not seem like it to people with current jobs but things will get a lot worse before they get better.

03-03-2009, 08:02 PM	#10
SellmeyourDVD Blu-ray Guru Member since:Apr 2008 Blu-ray collection:125 Trading Score:11	Imo we have a little less than 800 billion reasons to think we'll be ok again 2 years from now.

03-03-2009, 08:07 PM	#11
dpomp ₯ Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Texas PSN: dpomp131 Blu-ray collection:231 Trading Score:19	i thought we had a topic about this before and it got shut down before anyone even posted in it.

03-03-2009, 08:33 PM	#14
cartman781 Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Sep 2007 Location:In a van down by the river Blu-ray collection:2074 DVD collection:257 Digital collection:18 Blu-ray reviews: 7 Trading Score:99	I don't think we will get anywhere near as bad as the 1930s era depression was and that is the measurement by which I use when people keep saying we are in a depression.

03-03-2009, 08:33 PM	#15
assydingo Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Oct 2008 Blu-ray collection:483 DVD collection:12 Trading Score:3	It's super bad and seems to get worse instead of better... so I'd say yes =/.

03-03-2009, 08:41 PM	#18
Uniquely Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Sep 2008 Location:Mobile, AL Home Theater Gallery:14 Blu-ray collection:171	Just a reminder that I will continue to post as long as this thread is allowed to remain... so that thread scanners don't miss the point of this thread. We are only discussing how bad we think this economy will get before we start to see improvements. We are not discussing how we got here, or how we can get out. We are not discussing who we blame or who we think can help. Please steer clear of politics.... which everyone has done a GREAT job of so far!

03-03-2009, 10:12 PM	#19
Septimus Prime Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Jan 2008 Blu-ray collection:164 Trading Score:2	I don't think anyone will ever officially declare that we are in a depression, since the second that happens, people will be pulling their money out of the economy, and the depression will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. So I vote no.

03-03-2009, 10:14 PM	#20
pacificvibes Tattoo King Member since:Apr 2008 Location:Irvine, CA PSN ID WinterShrinkage Home Theater Gallery:16 Blu-ray collection:51 Blu-ray reviews:3 Trading Score:8	I honestly dont know what to think...ABC 7 did a report from CA, my state and they said that we are in for the worst of it...Im 19 turning 20 and the only thing I can do is keep going to school since there arent any jobs to be found. I dont know if we can call it a depression but in my mind it sure feels like its going that way.

Best Blu-ray Movie Deals