So much for digital downloads...

[scrumptious]

Why do they call them "digital" anyway ... DVDs and BDs are digital

http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/...cle6169488.ece

I guess netflix wasted a bunch of money

So problems will start next year and culminate in 2012 ... maybe the Mayans predicted this

[blujacket]

I was going to post this earlier.I wonder how Mike @ avs is taking this.

[P@t_Mtl]

What will happen to BD Live and stuff like Netflix? Are we going to be back to the early days, cable Internet will look like the old dialup?

[dadkins]

I personally have nothing to worry about.
Comcast has a 250GB cap(albeit a soft cap) and I rarely hit 35GB for any given month.

*IF* there were suddenly a service that could send BD quality video via internet, I would not partake.
I prefer the hard copy.

Ya know, this "exaflood" has been thrown around to the point of being vapor.
If it were as bad as THEY say, it would be slowly happening and getting worse.
My line can still peg at any time of the day...
YAWN!

[Blu-Runner]

...Interesting.

[Tempest]

Originally Posted by dadkins

I personally have nothing to worry about.
Comcast has a 250GB cap(albeit a soft cap) and I rarely hit 35GB for any given month.

*IF* there were suddenly a service that could send BD quality video via internet, I would not partake.
I prefer the hard copy.

Ya know, this "exaflood" has been thrown around to the point of being vapor.
If it were as bad as THEY say, it would be slowly happening and getting worse.
My line can still peg at any time of the day...
YAWN!

They are not talking about existing problems.. they are talking about demand in the future increasing faster than they can improve things and at THAT point it will be a problem.. Not Now..

[SkantDragon]

This article is alarmist drivel.

It's true that video download services can't take off in part because there is insufficient bandwidth to handle mass adoption. But the idea that the internet is about to 'break' is pure fantasy.

The article is written in such a way as to target nontechnical people in an effort to raise panic. Much like the old Y2K panic was spread. Did airplanes fall out of the sky on January 1st, 2000?

Here's the thing. Even if what the article describes is in any way true, it's hardly the first time the internet has ever faced congestion. Will the whole internets break because of youtube? No. What will happen is youtube traffic will get throttled so that it doesn't cripple other traffic.

This kind of thing actually happens all of the time. Quietly. It's just a normal day at the office for internet providers. They're always making adjustments to their networks to keep things flowing smoothly. Youtube almost certainly already gets throttled. And if they had to, they'd throttle it as heavily as needed to keep other services running smoothly, even if it ultimately meant you couldn't see your monkey riding a Segway without waiting a couple of minutes.

[greyrocket]

[QUOTE=dadkins;1864274]I personally have nothing to worry about.
Comcast has a 250GB cap(albeit a soft cap)


i go over that cap ever month. they called me once for using almost 500gigs one month

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by SkantDragon

This article is alarmist drivel.

It's true that video download services can't take off in part because there is insufficient bandwidth to handle mass adoption. But the idea that the internet is about to 'break' is pure fantasy.

The article is written in such a way as to target nontechnical people in an effort to raise panic. Much like the old Y2K panic was spread. Did airplanes fall out of the sky on January 1st, 2000?

Here's the thing. Even if what the article describes is in any way true, it's hardly the first time the internet has ever faced congestion. Will the whole internets break because of youtube? No. What will happen is youtube traffic will get throttled so that it doesn't cripple other traffic.

This kind of thing actually happens all of the time. Quietly. It's just a normal day at the office for internet providers. They're always making adjustments to their networks to keep things flowing smoothly. Youtube almost certainly already gets throttled. And if they had to, they'd throttle it as heavily as needed to keep other services running smoothly, even if it ultimately meant you couldn't see your monkey riding a Segway without waiting a couple of minutes.

I completely agree with what you are saying, but a digital download service would definitely fall under the category of "unimportant, so throttle this before important things". It especially problematic for those who believe that the downloads will happen "real-time", where you can even watch the movie as it is being downloaded.

[scrumptious]

Originally Posted by dadkins

I personally have nothing to worry about.
Comcast has a 250GB cap(albeit a soft cap) and I rarely hit 35GB for any given month.

*IF* there were suddenly a service that could send BD quality video via internet, I would not partake.
I prefer the hard copy.

Ya know, this "exaflood" has been thrown around to the point of being vapor.
If it were as bad as THEY say, it would be slowly happening and getting worse.
My line can still peg at any time of the day...
YAWN!

It wouldn't be slowly happening if the problem expands suddenly or exponentially. Furthermore, you mention Comcast which shows that already is happening. Not too long ago, Comcast didn't have a cap.

Sure ISPs can deal with this by throttling or stricter caps. But then that was my point "So much for digital downloads..." ... digital downloads cannot survive throttling or stricter caps. And I'm not sure how throttling or stricter caps is somehow good news or nothing to worry about. We want internet to be fast not slower with time.

There is a problem inherent in internet communications that makes it unsuitable for large bandwiths.

Once China and eventually India get online, there is going to be a massive strain on internet bandwith just as there will be a massive strain on energy with China and India's industrialization. Meat prices will also rise.

[master_8ball]

[QUOTE=greyrocket;1864391]

Originally Posted by dadkins

I personally have nothing to worry about.
Comcast has a 250GB cap(albeit a soft cap)


i go over that cap ever month. they called me once for using almost 500gigs one month

Wow. My cap is 80gigs the 2nd best from my ISP for $58 a month, if I go over they charge by gig.

I wonder how much online gaming takes up.

[blu2]

Good news for network infrastructure vendors!

[kefrank]

Originally Posted by SkantDragon

This article is alarmist drivel.

I had the exact same reaction to the article.

[dadkins]

Originally Posted by Tempest

They are not talking about existing problems.. they are talking about demand in the future increasing faster than they can improve things and at THAT point it will be a problem.. Not Now..

For the past few years, "they" have been saying the same thing.
Here we are today in 2009 and if anything, the internet health is better than ever.
*I* have 16mbps and 22 or 50 is pretty much a phone call away.

Verizon is stil rolling FiOS, AT&T is pushing on with their Uverse.
The greater demand has been happening - the internet should have went up in flames already.

http://www.dtc.umn.edu/mints/home.php

[dadkins]

Originally Posted by scrumptious

It wouldn't be slowly happening if the problem expands suddenly or exponentially. Furthermore, you mention Comcast which shows that already is happening. Not too long ago, Comcast didn't have a cap.

Sure ISPs can deal with this by throttling or stricter caps. But then that was my point "So much for digital downloads..." ... digital downloads cannot survive throttling or stricter caps. And I'm not sure how throttling or stricter caps is somehow good news or nothing to worry about. We want internet to be fast not slower with time.

There is a problem inherent in internet communications that makes it unsuitable for large bandwiths.

Once China and eventually India get online, there is going to be a massive strain on internet bandwith just as there will be a massive strain on energy with China and India's industrialization. Meat prices will also rise.

Internet takeup and innovation doesn't happen fast here in the States.
Yes, it would happen slowly and it would be detectable and most likely avoidable if it were happening as they say.
Thing is, it was predicted for the 1st quarter of 2009 - OOPS! Already gone, we are still doing ok, no?

I'm not going to cowar in a corner over another sensationalist article, sorry!

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by scrumptious

Why do they call them "digital" anyway ... DVDs and BDs are digital

http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/...cle6169488.ece

I guess netflix wasted a bunch of money

So problems will start next year and culminate in 2012 ... maybe the Mayans predicted this

Even if they managed to keep ahead, someone is going to have to pay for all that equipment to service the bandwidth. It seems to me those that push and pull digital video are expecting a free ride from the rest of us.

It is frequently said by major ISP that 2% of users account for 50% of the bandwidth used. Right now the Internet is a socialist paradise, and that has got to change.

It definitely will change when that bandwidth transitions from P2P to B2C. There is no way that the content owners are going to be allowed to get rich with subsidized Internet bandwidth.

Gary

[krazeyeyez]

i thought the article was interesting and none to surprising, i have friends that don't know how to operate their computers but manage to be downloading movies, music, and games all day everyday, hell even my mother visits youtube these days, supply and demand and with the internet exploding into everyday life of homes everywhere i don't see how this won't eventually happen, not to say with proper funding and undertakings it couldn't be avoided or at least minimized.

[Kirsty_Mc]

If this does come to pass, I can see ISPs blocking certain services for certain accounts. If you want to access these bandwidth hungry sites, then you will have to pay more. In this way bandwidth will be maintained by pricing certain people out of certain services.

It's just a thought, but I could see it happening.

So much for downloads... the wet dream of Microsoft and Toshiba .

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

It especially problematic for those who believe that the downloads will happen "real-time", where you can even watch the movie as it is being downloaded.

It WILL happen... the only reasonable question is will it be next year, five years from now, ten years.... or when?

[scrumptious]

Originally Posted by Kirsty_Mc

Microsoft.

Microsoft which I hear is named after something micro and soft is now promoting blu-ray. I guess they figure it will sell more PCs