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Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

As I said, these discs would not exist without this investment. You need compelling popular software to get people to buy hardware. And if they have software ready made for 2011. Through these deals

Virtually every single one of these discs would not have a 3D version prior to their next dip without it, which could be 3-4 years away

I get why software companies wouldn't make them on their own without the hardware vendor money. And I get why hardware vendors would want to subsidize the authoring, to get titles on the market to help launch 3D at home. But what I don't get is why the hardware vendors have chosen to sell those titles in this manner. The whole point of paying for the titles to be made is to help launch 3D - not just THEIR 3D, as they need an entire healthy 3D market for THEIR 3D to be successful. The two aren't separable. So they've already paid that money, might as well let the titles grow the market the best they can. Making it so the only way to get each title is to buy separate pieces of hardware is NOT the best way to grow the market. It seems short-sighted.

Again, if hardware vendors are content to wait until 2011 for a big push, fine, I get it. Or maybe they think they can squeeze some early adopter sales off at higher price before a more mainstream launch in 2011 (which I think isn't too logically sound, as the different exclusives cancel themselves out, and even reduce the number of game early adopters in my mind). But I don't believe that the current distribution method is the quickest way they could be growing the market RIGHT NOW. If I could own 10 3D Blu-ray titles right now, I might go to the store this weekend and get a new TV. Knowing I could get one or two, and then be locked out until some unknown time in 2011 - well no thank you, since I'm forced to wait for most titles anyway, I might as well wait for lower prices on the TVs too. And I normally consider myself quite the early adopter. But this is simply beyond the pale.

[Jeff Kleist]

I get why software companies wouldn't make them on their own without the hardware vendor money. And I get why hardware vendors would want to subsidize the authoring, to get titles on the market to help launch 3D at home. But what I don't get is why the hardware vendors have chosen to sell those titles in this manner.

Because having 20 3D titles on the shelf in 2010 will not generate a lot of TV sales during a major recession. In order to show return on investment for the bean counters, they need to roll those expenditures into the prices of the TV. Most customers are not descerning. They do not carefully research their purchases, and they're also likely to buy the same brand of everything instead of mixing and matching components. Therefore getting them to drop $3500 on a Panasonic cause they want Avatar over a similarly priced Sony bundle is a competitive advantage. People look at price (which is why pieces of junk like Vizio are #1), then what they perceive as picture quality (which is why horrible features like 120hz smoothing and blown out torch modes exist). The non-enthusiast consumer sees one TV as the same as another for the most part. It's the doodads like Netflix support you can tack onto it that makes more of a difference than another 20,000 contrast ratio

I'm sure that if the CEs do follow through and offer the discs to their existing customers, there will be enough of a supply around that you'll be able to nail the title of your choice for $50-60 on Ebay. Everyone is going to order them to trade. I know I'd order and trade How to Train Your Dragon for Coraline in a minute

[PaulGo]

I posted a similar poll on the AVS forum, aside from a over 80% wanting 3D movies to purchase now people are so desperate for quality 3D content they are using piracy to get the content! These are people who want to buy the product and have never done this before, but they feel so frustrated they are resorting to illegal means to get content. This does not benefit anyone. In the long run the studios are really hurting themselves.

[MerrickG]

Id get a 3D TV for gaming and ESPN 3D as I said in Pentons thread.

[Jeff Kleist]

I posted a similar poll on the AVS forum, aside from a over 80% wanting 3D movies to purchase now people are so desperate for quality 3D content they are using piracy to get the content! These are people who want to buy the product and have never done this before, but they feel so frustrated they are resorting to illegal means to get content. This does not benefit anyone. In the long run the studios are really hurting themselves.

I completely agree that only 2 major titles (scheduled) on shelves in 9 months is bad. At the same time what I've said is pretty much the way it is

The first exclusivity windows will be up soon, and by this time next year pretty much everything but Avatar should be free

[PaulGo]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

I completely agree that only 2 major titles (scheduled) on shelves in 9 months is bad. At the same time what I've said is pretty much the way it is

The first exclusivity windows will be up soon, and by this time next year pretty much everything but Avatar should be free

We agree for people to wait close to a year after they invested several thousand dollars for 3D equipment is not good. Just because things are a certain way doesn't mean customers have to accept it. Somehow I feel the early adopters are getting screwed!

[Jeff Kleist]

Well, they'd be more screwed if these discs didn't exist at all and were years instead of months away. Which is where they'd be without these exclusives

[MerrickG]

Ridley Scott thinks that 2D-to-3D can work if properly done. Funny.

Anyway,

Given all the freakin superhero films coming out next summer which one has you the most excited?

I think Thor will be the best, but Captain America is the one Im most looking forward to.

I am VERY intrigued about Green Lantern though.

For summer 2011 we can look forward to:
Thor
X-men First Class
Green Lantern
Transformers 3
Captain America
Harry Potter

[FlipperWasIrish]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

Well, they'd be more screwed if these discs didn't exist at all and were years instead of months away. Which is where they'd be without these exclusives

While this is the truth, many people prefer to ignore this fact, making it difficult too calm people down when they are upset they can't get the movies they want NOW. I have a few friends who (IMO) jumped the gun and upgraded to 3DTV, for the most part they knew what they were getting into. With one exception and that couple refuses to accept that it isn't a giant conspiricy.

This will all work itself out in time.

[BillieCassin]

Originally Posted by PaulGo

We agree for people to wait close to a year after they invested several thousand dollars for 3D equipment is not good. Just because things are a certain way doesn't mean customers have to accept it. Somehow I feel the early adopters are getting screwed!

So is the life of an early adopter.

It's the price you pay. If you want to have it first, you take those risks. Ask those that bought HDTV's before they had HDMI inputs.

To be honest, the crap really hasn't hit the fan yet with Active Shutter enthusiasts. Active Shutter just isn't going to work for most people, and it will be Polarized first, then non-glasses 3-D that will get people in general to care. Check out this article - which has manufacturers running scared (they then send their minions out to do responses like this a day later).

Active shutter tech has a lot of issues - and if you read the article above (where they took people who were ALREADY interested in Active Shutter 3-D, showed it to them, and a good portion of them lost interest after actually seeing it in action), people just aren't into it. One of the big concerns is multi-tasking - very few people sit and just watch TV anymore. They are texting, browsing the internet, etc.

By the time there is an actual library of 3-D titles, Active Shutter will be a "gee, I can't believe we thought that would work" tech.

[PaulGo]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

Well, they'd be more screwed if these discs didn't exist at all and were years instead of months away. Which is where they'd be without these exclusives

To me this makes about as much sense as when Paramount was bought off by Toshiba / Microsoft to go exclusively HD-DVD. The materials needed to produce a 3D Blu-ray should be tha same as a 2D DVD mastering costs are probably a bit higher. The content is coming from the same film.

Next month 3D capable players will increase by well over ten million with the PS3 gaining 3D movie capability. I think that alone would make people anxious to purchase 3D movies - perhaps now only to watch in 2D but to have later to watch in 3D. If their are no good titles avail for purchase that will hinder 3D adaption. And just like the Prohibition of Alcohol during 1920-1933 this unfortunatly will lead to a great number of illicit sales and downloads of 3D movies.

Making a potential customers think about and possibly getting a product denied to them through illegal means is going down a slippery slope that will cost the studios much more than the short term gains from selling their souls to the hardware manufacturers.

Also we need to remember Panasonic is now offering three checkerboard capable 3D Blu-ray players and their are several million 3D capable DLP sets. So many sales could be had if the DLP owners just purchase a Panasonic player and glasses. However again without quality content this will not happen.

[Mr. Cinema]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

I completely agree that only 2 major titles (scheduled) on shelves in 9 months is bad.

I thought you were talking about Disney catalogs.

[DenonCI]

Originally Posted by merrick97

Ridley Scott thinks that 2D-to-3D can work if properly done. Funny.

Anyway,

Given all the freakin superhero films coming out next summer which one has you the most excited?

I think Thor will be the best, but Captain America is the one Im most looking forward to.

I am VERY intrigued about Green Lantern though.

For summer 2011 we can look forward to:
Thor
X-men First Class
Green Lantern
Transformers 3
Captain America
Harry Potter

Merrick,

Didn't realize "the boy who lived" was considered a superhero

[Jeff Kleist]

To be honest, the crap really hasn't hit the fan yet with Active Shutter enthusiasts. Active Shutter just isn't going to work for most people, and it will be Polarized first, then non-glasses 3-D that will get people in general to care. Check out this article - which has manufacturers running scared (they then send their minions out to do responses like this a day later).

Active shutter works fine for nearly everyone. That report is being twisted and turned by so many sources it's not even funny

Polarized televisions are impractically expensive to achieve. The LG one can't do 1080p BTW. The only place polarized will become practical is expensive front projection (high quality screen required, probably $3500 cost of entry for at least 5 years). Glasses-free solutions that actually work on sets over 24in are years away.

The problem people have with 3DTV is 2-fold

1- The price. $3500 is a lot more than most people are willing to pay. The price of the glasses is irrelevant, they'll be cranking thm out at $40 SRP inside 18 months (that figure is direct from a CE BTW)
2- The vast majority of 3D content is creating depth, It's become patently clear that if J6P isn't being poked in the eye they don't consider it "3D". Of course, achieving those kinds of "pop out" illusions is quite difficult, and 3D as a whole is less impressive the smaller screen you have. I defy anyone to watch Panasonic's coral reef 3D demo and not be impressed. Hell, my MOTHER was impressed, and she couldn't give a rat's about these kinds of things

Here's the other thing- Maybe it's in the report you have to buy, but what was the testing methodology used? What were the demographics of the testees? Focus groups are often rigged toward foregone conclusions, and I know of at least one that has caused no end of issues when put into actual practice in the HT world, all because someone had an agenda. If you fill a room up with jocks and soccer moms who are struggling financially, show them some depth 3D and then ask them if they want to buy it, what do you think the answer is going to be?

To me this makes about as much sense as when Paramount was bought off by Toshiba / Microsoft to go exclusively HD-DVD. The materials needed to produce a 3D Blu-ray should be tha same as a 2D DVD mastering costs are probably a bit higher. The content is coming from the same film

They're a LOT higher, and you have to start over from scratch on your encode. From a pure business perspective, the Toshiba/Paramount deal made a lot of sense. Because the MBAs of today that run studios are trained on the quarterly report system, by boosting their income by $150 million they kept their jobs another 3 months. These kinds of short term strategies is a big part of why our economy is in such bad shape right now. On Toshiba's side, they needed to do something to try to save their billion dollar investment in HD DVD, and again, nailing exclusive studios is a feather in their caps that keeps their jobs. Had they gotten WB too, things might have been quite different.

Next month 3D capable players will increase by well over ten million with the PS3 gaining 3D movie capability. I think that alone would make people anxious to purchase 3D movies - perhaps now only to watch in 2D but to have later to watch in 3D. If their are no good titles avail for purchase that will hinder 3D adaption. And just like the Prohibition of Alcohol during 1920-1933 this unfortunatly will lead to a great number of illicit sales and downloads of 3D movies.

But virtually none of those PS3s will be paired with TVs, and virtually all 3DTVs are bundled with players. None of this wll matter until next year when more affordable, non-bundled TVs come out.

Making a potential customers think about and possibly getting a product denied to them through illegal means is going down a slippery slope that will cost the studios much more than the short term gains from selling their souls to the hardware manufacturers.

You're greatly overestimating the number of people who are willing to download 50GB and then drop $20 on a blank BD50. It's not enough to matter.

[PaulGo]

"You're greatly overestimating the number of people who are willing to download 50GB and then drop $20 on a blank BD50. It's not enough to matter."

You are underestimating the pirates - they have software to compress 50GB to 25GB (of course with some loss in quality).

FYI on ebay you can purchase 25GB Blu-ray media for less than $1 each and 50GB Blu-ray media for about $6 each.

On another topic I read Blu-ray manufacturers were going to go to a compatible 66GB format. With the increased size needed for 3D why would they not take advantage of this increased capacity.

[Jeff Kleist]

I'm not underestimating the pirates. You're looking at a very small and concentrated minority

3D Support will be much better next year when the real push starts

On another topic I read Blu-ray manufacturers were going to go to a compatible 66GB format. With the increased size needed for 3D why would they not take advantage of this increased capacity.

They're not, this is only for writeable discs that cannot be read by standard Blu-ray players. I don't see BDXL gaining popularity outside of Japan where DVR/BD-R combos are the primary units available, and people tape stuff off TV like crazy, though I'm sure computer burners that support it aren't far away.

[PaulGo]

No this is a upgrade to 33.4gb per layer announced in a news article on Blu-ray.com on Jan. 10, 2010 by changing the error checking on each layer.

https://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=3977

[Jeff Kleist]

Yes, that's BDXL. It does 33GB/layer which they round up to 100 for the triple layer discs, and 128 for quadruple (expected in Q1-ish last I checked).

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/s...09&newsLang=en

There are no plans to use them for commercial movie discs (in 33/66 levels). It's likely that the speed and numbers needed for that scale of replication have proven unreliable or the number of coasters is unnacceptible. They're charging $55 a blank on Amazon Japan for them, and BD-R 25s are averaging a buck apiece.

Both companies have announced BD-R/DVR combos in Japan using it as I described

[MerrickG]

Originally Posted by DenonCI

Merrick,

Didn't realize "the boy who lived" was considered a superhero

Ok, to some people Harry Potter is their hero. :-)

Personally I would like another Daredevil film since the last one was unfairly crapped on IMO. Yes, I felt Ben Affleck did quite well as Matt Murdoch. Jason Statham is another guy who could do it well. I would also like another Edward Norton Hulk since it was pretty if you ask me.

I am trying to find a cheap copy of Frank Miller's run on Daredevil in omnibus format, but they're running between $130-$300 per copy.

Either way I cant think of another summer that had this many superhero films. 2008 came close with Dark Knight, Iron Man and Incredible Hulk.

[DenonCI]

Originally Posted by merrick97

Ok, to some people Harry Potter is their hero. :-)

Personally I would like another Daredevil film since the last one was unfairly crapped on IMO. Yes, I felt Ben Affleck did quite well as Matt Murdoch. Jason Statham is another guy who could do it well. I would also like another Edward Norton Hulk since it was pretty if you ask me.

I am trying to find a cheap copy of Frank Miller's run on Daredevil in omnibus format, but they're running between $130-$300 per copy.

Either way I cant think of another summer that had this many superhero films. 2008 came close with Dark Knight, Iron Man and Incredible Hulk.

I just hope we get some super movies!