Ask questions to The Digital Bits team (Bill Hunt, Jeff Kleist et.al.)

[Jeff Kleist]

I have no idea why in hell this makes me "wrong" to point this out. It's factual information, and a very simple concept. The consumers decide how much they are going to spend on home media each week, and they are consistently making the same buying decisions with their dollars as they have been for a year. For some reason people want to talk down to me and act like I'm some idiot because I supposedly don't understand this or that other way of measurement; I AM NOT COMMENTING ON THOSE NUMBERS BUT ONLY MARKET SHARE.

What you're doing is chosing the battle you want to have, where you believe the numbers are in your favor, when those numbers do not tell the whole story.

The fine dining restaurant that serves 50 pulls in exponentially more revenue than the fast food joint that serves 150, yet they only hold 30% of the market. With each diner dropping around $80-100 compared to the $7-8 at Burger King. $5 DVDs may outsell Blu-ray 4-1, but the revenue from those Blu-rays is easily at least triple, and on new releases, 20-25% more than the DVD. M&M Mars sells thousands of times the M&Ms they do Mars bars, yet the percentage of company income from the two is way closer to equal than not, despite the fact every time they make a sale they sell 100 M&Ms.

I really don't know how many other ways I can explain to you that just looking at market share does not tell the whole story. Big picture! Most businesses would kill for an 84% boost prior to Christmas (and well over 100% increase in unit sales is predicted before it's all said and done, I've seen as high as 130%, but that may be optimistic)

[Jeff Kleist]

And on a completely seperate topic, I can't stop watching this

http://yamato-movie.net/movie_yokoku.html

I just wish I could make it bigger than a postage stamp

[BillieCassin]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

What you're doing is chosing the battle you want to have, where you believe the numbers are in your favor, when those numbers do not tell the whole story.

I really don't know how many other ways I can explain to you that just looking at market share does not tell the whole story. Big picture! Most businesses would kill for an 84% boost prior to Christmas (and well over 100% increase in unit sales is predicted before it's all said and done, I've seen as high as 130%, but that may be optimistic)

And I don't know how many ways to explain that I understand that and that is not what I am talking about. It's getting absurd at this point.

I'm not battling anything. Nothing is in my "favor". I never claimed market share was the "whole story". I'm not writing a book about Blu-ray. I am not trying to tell a story. I've just defended myself from people who are telling me I am "wrong" when apparently they cannot click on a link and see the same chart I can see where it clearly shows the Blu-ray market share.

That's all. A few posts back you said "It's 15-20%", and you were wrong. Out of the past 50 weeks, it's only been in that range for 7 of them. The average is more like 10-12%.

The market share of Blu-ray to DVD has remained relatively flat for the past year, that's a fact, and it may not be the "BIG PICTURE" you keep mentioning over and over like I am a mentally disabled child, but it's a fact nonetheless. And yes, it DOES mean something - it means that no matter what sales numbers you want to dig up, people are STILL choosing to buy DVD over Blu at the same rate. Blu may make 75 trillion dollars, that's absofrickin'loutely wonderful. But consumers are still buying the same percentage of Blu's to DVD's.

I'm content with you guys thinking I am an idiot who doesn't know what he's talking about. Life will go on, I tried to have a discussion but I just don't have the time to sit and argue about things I never mentioned nor care about on a silly message board. I've got Blu-rays to watch.

[PaulGo]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

And on a completely seperate topic, I can't stop watching this

http://yamato-movie.net/movie_yokoku.html

I just wish I could make it bigger than a postage stamp

Very easy - use the Mozilla Firefox browser and get the Download Helper add-on. This allows you to capture most of the flahs (and some other content) so you can download it. Once you download it I use VLC media player to play the content in full screen. That clip looks great in full screen!

I believe Real Player also has an add on to capture files from your browser.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by BillieCassin

Thank you for your opinion.

not at all, it is a mathematical fact that you refuse to admit because it does not fit with your agenda

Um, it's pretty simple. You just blathered a bunch of hypothetical numbers and situations. I'm talking about hard data.

The hard data shows that the percentage of home video dollars spent on Blu-ray, compared to DVD, each week has remained relatively the same over the past year.

You can sit and make up as many situations and exceptions that you wish. However, that does not change the fact, that out of all the money spent on home video media each week, roughly the same percentage is being spent on DVD vs. Blu as was one year ago.


How anyone can dismiss that as insignificant is beyond me. A million variables determine the why's and how's, but looking at the total picture each week the percentage of sales that are from Blu-ray as opposed to DVD have remained about the same. Approximately $1 to $1.20 each week out of every $10 spent on home video is spent on Blu-ray, the rest on DVD.

I have no idea why in hell this makes me "wrong" to point this out. It's factual information, and a very simple concept. The consumers decide how much they are going to spend on home media each week, and they are consistently making the same buying decisions with their dollars as they have been for a year. For some reason people want to talk down to me and act like I'm some idiot because I supposedly don't understand this or that other way of measurement; I AM NOT COMMENTING ON THOSE NUMBERS BUT ONLY MARKET SHARE.

Market share. The share of the home video market that Blu-ray occupies as opposed to DVD. So you can waste all the time you want inventing scenarios and making yourself feel all warm and fuzzy by discussing other numbers, but that has nothing to do with anything I have said or make me "wrong" about this.

Blu-ray market share of the entire home video market has remained relatively the same for the past year. If total revenue for Blu-ray, DVD, or both combined is higher, lower, or not recorded, it doesn't make any difference to that fact. The percentage of dollars spend on Blu-ray, compared to DVD, has stayed just about the same. That's the only point I have tried to express, and I am absolutely correct - I'm not going to bother to link to the numbers again, because obviously people either just want to argue and put me down, or they don't know how to follow a link.

not at all, I included a link to DEG which calculated that for the first half of the year BD GREW by 84% if you gave me 100$ and I gave you 184$ would you say I gave you back the same amount of money. I don't think anyone in his right mind would. and if you are dumb enough to say but that is BD's growth and not market share, then go back to the DEG article and you will see that DVD+BD actually shrunk a bit, that means BDs market share has grown more then 84%. For example let's make a fictional market that is 100M$ A has 10% of the market, that means A=10M and B=90M, if now the market is stable and A grew by 100% A=20M and the market=100M so B=80M and so now A has 20% and B 80%. If on the other hand the market shrinks (like it did) and let's say it is now 90M, that means A has 20M and B has 70M so the market share is now 22%. Unless you can prove that DVD increased by 84% and the whole market increased by 84% then BD did increase and by a lot. And since the DEG report has all the info and it completely contradicts your delusions, you would have to prove why an organization created by the entertainment business back when DVD came out to track the evolution of formats either has no idea what they are talking about or has all the wrong data unlike you.

[BillieCassin]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

not at all, it is a mathematical fact that you refuse to admit because it does not fit with your agenda

You caught me, dude.

I have a secret agenda here.

I hate Blu-ray, I spend my time here trying to defeat it and stop people from buying it.

Bwhwhwhahaha, what ever will I do now that you have uncovered my evil plans.

Seriously - you just called me dumb and I'd like to return the favor, but I'm not a flamer like you so I'll just say if you think that, you have challenges with your mental capacity.

I have been discussing market share, you are countering with everything but. You are inventing arguments I never made. You are absurd.

[Jeff Kleist]

You're starting with an assumption, and ignoring all the facts presented to you that counter that assumption, and trying to limit discussion to the tiny corner you think you can win on.

Since you haven't added anything to what you're saying since the first post, I know I can throw things at you till I'm blue in the face and it's not going to change anything, so I'm simply not going to bother any more

[BillieCassin]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

You're starting with an assumption, and ignoring all the facts presented to you that counter that assumption, and trying to limit discussion to the tiny corner you think you can win on.

Since you haven't added anything to what you're saying since the first post, I know I can throw things at you till I'm blue in the face and it's not going to change anything, so I'm simply not going to bother any more

Thanks Jeff, I appreciate that.

I tried to amicably leave it as a disagreement many posts back, but unfortunately no one will allow that. Nope, need to try to beat me down because I disagree. I've got you and Mr. I Can't Construct A Sentence And Never Learned What A Paragraph Was attacking me because you don't like the FACT that Blu-ray's market share has been unchanged.

You are absolutely correct - you can sit and throw whatever you want at me in terms of things I am not talking about, and that doesn't change Blu-ray's market share.

It's funny that I am the one being labeled having "an agenda", when if anyone has one here...it certainly isn't me. That's what's absurd - it's not about "winning" or "losing". That's the trouble with some of you people who live on the Internet. Can't have a discussion, can only battle.

The market share of Blu-ray sales vs. DVD sales has been stagnant for a year.

That's a fact. The numbers have remained the same. YOU CAN TALK ABOUT OTHER NUMBERS ALL YOU WANT. I HAVE NOT DEBATED ANY OF THEM.

Seriously, dude. I try very hard to remain civil, but when you've got people with a real agenda like you who attack others for disagreeing with you or pointing out facts you do not care for that do not support your points, it's just ridiculous.

You can resume your regularly scheduled ego-stroking fan club meeting now.

[Jeff Kleist]

That's a fact. The numbers have remained the same. YOU CAN TALK ABOUT OTHER NUMBERS ALL YOU WANT. I HAVE NOT DEBATED ANY OF THEM.

Seriously, dude. I try very hard to remain civil, but when you've got people with a real agenda like you who attack others for disagreeing with you or pointing out facts you do not care for that do not support your points, it's just ridiculous.

You're not being attacked, this is not an agree/disagree thing. Opinion is opinion, facts are facts, and facts stomp opinion every time. You presented one fact that you believe means X, We tell you it doesn't because of A,B,C and D, the facts that prove your interpretation of fact X to be incorrect. Then you've gone on this defensive tangent trying to hold onto it. If you feel that people have gotten the impression that you're against Blu-ray, it's because of this.

I always advocate the scientific method-

Observation- Blu-ray doesn' seem to be catching on with the general populace in large numbers
Hypothesis- High catalog pricing and the recession have caused Blu-ray marketshare to become stagnant
Testing- While marketshare has remained static the last 12 months, further research into other areas volume and revenue are up substantially, indicating strong growth for Blu-ray over the last 12 months
Conclusion- The hypothesis is incorrect.

You failed to test your hypothesis, so don't be mad when you get shown you're wrong.
I'm sorry you're dissapointed.

[BillieCassin]

Uh, do you see what I mean? Way to prove my point. You said a moment ago "I'm not going to bother anymore", I THANKED YOU FOR IT, as I asked to just leave it as a disagreement many posts back. Yet here we have it, yet another post with veiled insults against my intelligence.

Jeff, look at these statistics and tell me that, as you said earlier, "Blu-ray market share is %15-20" and that it has not remained relatively flat over the past year:

http://www.blu-raystats.com/MarketShare/index.php


It has. I believe it means something. You disagree. OK, yay for us.

Blu-ray sales can be up by dollars. That's great. It's wonderful. Yay! It may have grown. YAY!

However, that does not change:

Observation- Buyers are still choosing DVDs over Blu-rays in similar proportion as they have been for the past year
Hypothesis- People are just not getting more interested because of the perception of significantly higher prices, lack of titles, and general disinterest because DVD is "good enough"
Testing- Market share has remained stagnant for the last 12 months. Though Blu-ray may have increased revenue, and other numbers may show more significant changes, customers who walk in to the store are still making the buying decision to purchase a DVD instead of a Blu-ray disc in the same proportion they were a year ago.
Conclusion- The hypothesis is correct.


See, I went to college too. I know the logic "game".

[Jeff Kleist]

lu-ray sales can be up by dollars. That's great. It's wonderful. Yay! It may have grown. YAY!

You're gamesaying, not employing logic, still holding onto your same disproven claim. At this point I also have to believe that you're simply trying to play gotcha on the one thing you think you can win on. Just let....it...go.

A growth by close to 100% does not indicate a static number of people buying. It is an unreasonable assumption at best to believe that the existing Blu-ray customer of 12 months ago have suddenly doubled their purchase rates, and that they all are also buying new players since those sales have doubled too. We've pointed out many instances and specific titles were people are most certainly not choosing DVD at the same rates they were a year ago, titles like Lost and Kick-Ass that did over half their units in Blu-ray (and Iron Man 2 will likely do next week).

What I'm asking you to do is that before you make a statement of doom and gloom, and ask leading questions expecting an affirmation of your hypothesis, prepare yourself for the possibility of dissapointment when things aren't the way you think they are.



So for your claims to be true, that's what needs to have happened, so I'll need to see your peer-reviewed evidence on that.

[BillieCassin]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

You're gamesaying, not employing logic, still holding onto your same disproven claim. At this point I also have to believe that you're simply trying to play gotcha on the one thing you think you can win on. Just let....it...go

Jeff, would you kindly answer two questions for me, YES or NO:

1) Do you stand by your earlier statement that Blu-ray market share averages "15-20%" of DVD each week,

2) Has the market share of Blu-ray vs. DVD remained a relatively flat average over the past year?


I am not predicting doom and gloom, you are projecting that on me. Not everyone who has a differing opinion hates Blu-ray, nor does everyone who can discuss things without bias (unlike those who may work for, or as part of, or as a critic of, said industry) have it out for anyone. The world is not broken down into two classifications, Fanboi and Hater.

Please, I'm begging you, do not quote me other numbers (I have not argued them). Do not tell me the other ways in which Blu-ray has grown (I have not argued it hasn't). Please do not make personal comments/assumptions about me or my reasons for posting. Can you just answer those two questions simply without trying to "WIN"?

That's why I have been frustrated. You can disagree with what that means. That's wonderful. That's what makes the world go round. I am absolutely, completely, blissfully fine with us thinking it means different things. But when you and others go at me telling me I am wrong or somehow misreading this information, it simply goes against logic.

[Jeff Kleist]

That's why I have been frustrated. You can disagree with what that means. That's wonderful. That's what makes the world go round. I am absolutely, completely, blissfully fine with us thinking it means different things. But when you and others go at me telling me I am wrong or somehow misreading this information, it simply goes against logic.

I never said you were misreading, I said you were drawing erroneous conclusions using a single piece of data on a multifaceted issue. I'm not playing your gotcha game, but when you have new substantive information to present instead of repeating the same thing over and over in new ways, I'll be more than happy to give it a fair hearing, until such time as you have it, please let it go.

[BillieCassin]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

I never said you were misreading, I said you were drawing erroneous conclusions using a single piece of data on a multifaceted issue. I'm not playing your gotcha game, but when you have new substantive information to present instead of repeating the same thing over and over in new ways, I'll be more than happy to give it a fair hearing, until such time as you have it, please let it go.

Thanks Jeff, that answers my questions.

Have a great weekend.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by BillieCassin

You caught me, dude.

I have a secret agenda here.

I hate Blu-ray, I spend my time here trying to defeat it and stop people from buying it.

Bwhwhwhahaha, what ever will I do now that you have uncovered my evil plans.

Seriously - you just called me dumb and I'd like to return the favor, but I'm not a flamer like you so I'll just say if you think that, you have challenges with your mental capacity.

I have been discussing market share, you are countering with everything but. You are inventing arguments I never made. You are absurd.

no man, that is the issue you are not listening to anyone because you beleive what you posted first and are so stuck on that idea that it is pissing you off that we are showing you that you are wrong.

Yes in the first part of my first post I did explain why market share of individual titles is a much better indicator but after that point no one has discussed anything but total market share and total growth and the numbers you linked to. The issue is that you don't know relatively basic math.

let me ask you a simple question, again, using the numbers linked to before.
http://www.blu-raystats.com/MarketShare/index.php
but to simplify we will talk about a fictional period called sucky+1
consisting of 5 weeks being Feb-14, feb-18, apr-25, jul-18, aug-22
the % are 8,9,22,9,9. Let’s say Person #1 (and from your posts I am guessing this is what you would assume), looks at suck+1 and says , it sucks it is around 9% because there are a lot of 9%. Person #2 that understands elementary school math understand the numbers a bit and realizes since 22 is far from the rest it will affect more an average and averages them out to (8+9+25+9+9)/5=11.4% and says it is not as bad as person #1 thinks market share for sucky+1 is 11.4%. Person #3 that realizes not all weeks are equal and so does the correct thing and uses a weighted average does (9*20+8*19+22*67+9*11+9*13)/(20+19+67+11+13)=15.6% because if you compare how many BDs sold for that sucky+1 period to how many DVDs got sold it was really 15.6% and not 11.4% nor 9%.

now this was just using a few of the weeks in the chart and the market share % and what I tried to explain earlier on.

Now, to show what I was saying later, a few weeks back the discussion was about the change %( which in essence is really what this discussion is about), and Rob used the same data you did (but obviously it had a few less weeks)
https://forum.blu-ray.com/blu-ray-te...ml#post3477855

post prod replied that it looks like a bit over 60% and then I replied that "The real growth is over 80% not 60%" https://forum.blu-ray.com/blu-ray-te...ml#post3480522

What happened later we got the real numbers for the first 1/2 which stated that it was 84%. That DEG report and those numbers you are looking for are talking about the same thing, and even though DEG has more precise and accurate numbers, if someone analyzes he weekly market share numbers correctly they get the same as DEG which makes sense since there is only one market so unless one of them is extremely off (or someone does not know what to do with the weekly numbers) they should be close.

Now truth is that 84% growth is only for BD, but if we look at DEG (just because they did the work for us so that we don’t have to) since DVD+BD shrunk by 7.1% that means that BD's market share grew by over 98%. But this is the problem, if I take 8% (lowest so far this year) and I add 100% (to keep the math easy) you get 16% and 16% is in this years zone, so would 9% tthat becomes 18% or 10% that becomes 20%, so next year you can see some of the % you have seen this year have only a few “exceptions” as you put it that are out of this years zone of fluctuations and still get 100% growth in market share.

[Anthony P]

2) Has the market share of Blu-ray vs. DVD remained a relatively flat average over the past year?

the answer is NO, if you compare the first 1/2 of this year to the first half of last year, it almost doubled. What ever you assume it is for the first half of this year, it was 1/2 of it for the first half of last year and what ever you assume it was for the first half of last year it is roughly twice as much this year. I am too lazy to compute the % so far this year and gather the info for last year and compute that but that is a fact that it was close to doubling for the first 1/2 of the year. The issue is that last year there where some 8%, 9%, 10% and this year as well but can we agree there was no 22%? so obviously it reached higher this year, and that last year there where weeks that where less then 8% so the bottom was lower last year? shouldn’t that be a GOOD hint for you that the whole range moved up? And so it was not flat?

[MerrickG]

Jeff,

I just finished playing Halo: Reach and basically it was pretty much what I thought: if you've played one Halo game you've basically played them all.

It was a lot of fun for sure, but this time the game had a lot more Call of Duty type moments. If you were take all of the good to great FPS of this current console generation Halo Reach wouldn't stand out, but would certainly fit right in. I would also say the same thing about the Resistance and Killzone series on the PS3. Great games to be sure, but if you take the names off the games and the fanboyism that goes with them, they are merely good shooters that are a lot of fun.

Now Im just waiting for Fallout: New Vegas which comes out the week before BttF and Alien Anthology.

[jaaguir]

Originally Posted by Jeff Kleist

Out of the films that are listed, I forgot Roger Rabbit was Touchstone, but a sequel is moving forward.

Really? But if Zemeckis is involved, surely now everyone (live-actors and toons) will be motion-captured 3D aberrations and we won't be able to tell ones from the others? I'm sure that will bring fresh air to the saga...

[SpaceDog]

Originally Posted by jaaguir

Really? But if Zemeckis is involved, surely now everyone (live-actors and toons) will be motion-captured 3D aberrations and we won't be able to tell ones from the others? I'm sure that will bring fresh air to the saga...

While he's recently done motion capture films, he's much more known for live action. I'm certain that if he goes back to Roger Rabbit, it will be much as it ever was. I just hope all the animation houses play nice with one another again.

[Jeff Kleist]

Live action with CG Toons