Star Wars: HD format war may result in a skip to download?

[Blu-dock Saint]

Originally Posted by blublublu

Hmmm. 20 Years from now, I can't really see we'll still be interested in physical media. However, I'm mainly a renter and not a purchaser, and with few exceptions can't see the economics in buying a disc. Downloading/VOD is going to be much more economical that moving plastic around.

Aside: don't think that Microsoft is going to be king here. The Cable, Sat, and Telco folks are not going to sit idly by and let MS skim away revenue by riding on their pipes.

I still think there will always be some sort of physical media. I'm not sure a lot of people would accept not being able to have something physical to hold onto and say they own, but who knows, only time will tell.

[blublublu]

Originally Posted by Blu-dock Saint

I still think there will always be some sort of physical media. I'm not sure a lot of people would accept not being able to have something physical to hold onto and say they own, but who knows, only time will tell.

The physical media is like some kind of security blanket. You want to be able to know that you'll always be able to watch that movie whenever you want, at the highest possible quality. Could be that day will come... Within 20 years it would not suprise me.

[WickyWoo]

Hmmm. 20 Years from now, I can't really see we'll still be interested in physical media. However, I'm mainly a renter and not a purchaser, and with few exceptions can't see the economics in buying a disc. Downloading/VOD is going to be much more economical than moving plastic around (gosh, think about the inefficiencies of the whole Netflix concept)

When you spend $20 on a movie, you want something you can hold for it. When you give a gift, again, tactile object. Collectors want something to put on a shelf. Rental, like music to most people is disposible, it goes in, it goes out.

Aside: don't think that Microsoft is going to be king here. The Cable, Sat, and Telco folks are not going to sit idly by and let MS skim away revenue by riding on their pipes.

Pretty obvious to me from their low bitrate obcession that MS is trying to sell cable companies a total package. An interactive system with low overhead and hardware requirements plus a codec to shove a movie down the smallest pipe possible. So you use a Microsoft media center PC that has a HDi front end that acts as your cable selection menu, and you buy your VC-1 encoded VOD and OnDemand stuff

and every time you play it they get a nickle or whatnot

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

The Digital Bits

I highly doubt this myself. But, it's a disturbing thing to be said.

Particularly since the loudest trumpets for "The future is downloading" seem to be coming from:
A) Jeffrey Katzenberg, who proclaimed "DVD is Dead!" after he couldn't understand why we all didn't buy enough copies of Shrek 2,
and
B) Microsoft, who claim that, well, HD-DVD doesn't really matter, since "hard disk format is becoming obsolete anyway."

In other words, there are two kinds of studios who currently believe in soft-disk downloading:
Sour-grapes losers, and the industry-illiterate saps who believe them.

George Lucas originally supported DiVX, and we all remember conspiracy-theories of being the "last holdout" to DVD.
To be honest, I really don't know which to the two categories to peg him in. There may be a good case for both.

[blublublu]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

When you spend $20 on a movie, you want something you can hold for it. When you give a gift, again, tactile object. Collectors want something to put on a shelf. Rental, like music to most people is disposible, it goes in, it goes out.

What is the attachment to a piece of plastic? There's no point "collecting" plastic if you can watch whatever you want, whenever you want, at a reasonable cost, and desired quality.

Pretty obvious to me from their low bitrate obcession that MS is trying to sell cable companies a total package. An interactive system with low overhead and hardware requirements plus a codec to shove a movie down the smallest pipe possible. So you use a Microsoft media center PC that has a HDi front end that acts as your cable selection menu, and you buy your VC-1 encoded VOD and OnDemand stuff

and every time you play it they get a nickle or whatnot

Certainly MS wants a piece of that, but there are many other vendors would own the status quo and will be looking to keep their share intact as things move to IP-based video delivery.

[blublublu]

Originally Posted by EricJ

Particularly since the loudest trumpets for "The future is downloading" seem to be coming from:
A) Jeffrey Katzenberg, who proclaimed "DVD is Dead!" after he couldn't understand why we all didn't buy enough copies of Shrek 2,
and
B) Microsoft, who claim that, well, HD-DVD doesn't really matter, since "hard disk format is becoming obsolete anyway."

In other words, there are two kinds of studios who currently believe in soft-disk downloading:
Sour-grapes losers, and the industry-illiterate saps who believe them.

And where do you put Disney then:

"We're always looking for more ways to let people experience our films," said Dan Cohen, executive vice president of pay television and interactive media for Disney-ABC Domestic Television. "With the millions of Xbox 360 consoles in living rooms today with a direct, high-speed Internet connection, Xbox LIVE really has become a terrific device for the delivery of digital entertainment content."

http://www.xbox.com/en-US/community/...arketplace.htm

Studios could care less about the delivery vehicle as long as it provides revenue and protects their assets.

[supersix4]

the masses would flock for box sets that would be company suicide if they "skiped it"... just speculation

[Digital Filmmaker]

I think that the delay in releasing the films on a hi-def disc format has less to do with any format war and much more to do with market saturation.

Lucasfilm held off releasing the (original) films on DVD until the market was well-saturated with players, resulting in sales in the hundreds of thousands or perhaps even millions of copies in a very short amount of time.

I think it is the same situation here. They're waiting until there are a respectable number of Blu-ray players in homes in order to guarantee high numbers of sales in a short time, much like a box office opening weekend. The longer they wait, the larger the consumer base, and the greater the sales.

It has also been such a short time since the last DVD release, that there may be a fear of consumer apathy of buying the same movies yet again in such a short period of time, as has been discussed earlier.

Personally, I don't think that online downloading of lengthy HD material in any qualitative form would be practical until more than a few years from now.

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by blublublu

And where do you put Disney then:

Disney's already Blu-Ray to the core (and Steve won't be changing that soon), they're safe--They don't count.
We're talking about the uncomitted studios that are just stupid enough to buy into the Microsoft Tantrum, because they saw something on CNN about it being the "wave of the future". That's usually how it happens.

(And I'll second the theory about it being a "threat" to hurry up, but that doesn't mean they're 100% kidding about believing the Sour Grapes--
I mean...these're studios, people. They're not like you and me. They don't know about this stuff.)

Originally Posted by blublublu

What is the attachment to a piece of plastic? There's no point "collecting" plastic if you can watch whatever you want, whenever you want, at a reasonable cost, and desired quality.

What no one has yet touched on is a deeply rooted psychological factor that dates back to the days of sell-thru VHS: A Home-Theater Fan's Videoshelf Is His Castle.
They are the bookshelves that used to line studies with leatherbound copies of Shakespeare and Dickens the owners never read, only now they take the form of Matrix and Simpsons collector boxes....Simply put, I'm not going to buy the same movie twice just to watch it, and you can't make me. When I buy 'em, I buy 'em once, and "once" means ONCE (unless there's an upgrade). Take a wild guess why DiVX failed.

And the reason we had DiVX, and every other temporary-download scheme, is that the idea of attaching a money hose to customers every time they want to watch a movie has been the golden El Dorado of studios since the birth of cable--And like kings who feared peasants would revolt if they learned to read, studios have feared the ability of customers to own, control, and enjoy movies at their own pace, and slam the door on any further obligation to the studio.
They're not giving up a hundred studio years of control so easily, and frankly...neither are we.

[Ascended_Saiyan]

Personally, I think downloading is a great option for those that mostly rent. For the pople that actually like to own content (collectors), it's a very frightening idea.

People think that large server would do the trick for collectors content? That would have to be very very far into the future. I'm less than 1 year into collecting and I'm over 200 titles. At about 28GB on average (rough estimate between 25GB and the few 50GB in my collection), that puts me at over 5.5TB of storage space I would need. I'm just getting started with my collection. I'm looking to have at least 10 times this amount before the next big thing. What storage solution does anyone think could be offered to me at the price of $600 or even $800? On top of that, what if that server crashes? I would have to kill at least 50 people before my rage would be manageable! If one physical disc is broken, I'm nowhere near as upset.

A lot of the collectors are early adopters. Did you think collectors would help to vote something in that leaves them that vulnerable? They would have to come up with a system where they would house all the content and I keep the permanent virtual keys for that content to be streamed to me at any time. Even then, what if my internet connection goes down? Surely everyone can see these problem as being at least a decade away from being solved. 'Til then, I will always be for a physical medium.

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by Ascended_Saiyan

Personally, I think downloading is a great option for those that mostly rent. For the pople that actually like to own content (collectors), it's a very frightening idea.

Downloading seems to attract the quote "Blockbuster audience"--
The idea (like your cable-on-demand commercials believe) that Joe Couchpotatoski wants a movie on Friday night, doesn't want to go to Blockbuster, sits down, click a button on his remote, and dials up "Live Free or Die Hard" for that night's viewing.

...That sound you now hear is a true DVD fan cringing.

Any DVD fan who collects, wants EVERYTHING:
Show him a barebones disk with "just the movie", and he'll throw it back in your face--We want docs, bonuses, trailers, and at least three commentaries, or it ain't a DVD. Will we ever watch those extras more than once?--Who cares? At least we've got them. Not only do we own our favorite movie, we own the living heck out of it.

Studios raving about downloads and on-demand--"Right in your own home!"--keep trying to sell us the Joe Couchpotatoski Just-the-movie version of "Action flop that's trying to make back it's summer budget", because that's as far as their own ego reaches, and they believe that's how we see movies at home.
Like I said, they just don't understand this stuff.

On top of that, what if that server crashes? I would have to kill at least 50 people before my rage would be manageable! If one physical disc is broken, I'm nowhere near as upset.

That's been the Digital Bits' biggest argument against "soft movies": What only exists in electronic form is even easier to blink out of existence when something makes those electrons disappear--
It's too easy to delete a text file by accident, it's a lot harder to tear up a book.

[sardaukar1977]

Originally Posted by Blu-dock Saint

I still think there will always be some sort of physical media. I'm not sure a lot of people would accept not being able to have something physical to hold onto and say they own, but who knows, only time will tell.

I don't know about that, I used to say I'd keep buying CD's forever, and now I download all my music, you never see me checking out the new cd release section at Best Buy, anymore.

I can see movies going to this some day, not for a while though.

[WickyWoo]

What is the attachment to a piece of plastic? There's no point "collecting" plastic if you can watch whatever you want, whenever you want, at a reasonable cost, and desired quality.

Obviously you're not much of a collector of anything then

Lucasfilm held off releasing the (original) films on DVD until the market was well-saturated with players, resulting in sales in the hundreds of thousands or perhaps even millions of copies in a very short amount of time.

Yes and no. Lucas was positive we'd be in the HD disc era about 5 years before it actually happened, so that was a big reason he held off. We'll see Star Wars a lot sooner in this cycle than last time.

A lot of the collectors are early adopters. Did you think collectors would help to vote something in that leaves them that vulnerable? They would have to come up with a system where they would house all the content and I keep the permanent virtual keys for that content to be streamed to me at any time. Even then, what if my internet connection goes down? Surely everyone can see these problem as being at least a decade away from being solved. 'Til then, I will always be for a physical medium.

And "oop, hard drive crash, time to download 6TB again......", or how about them putting your movie on moratorium?

[Musashi]

The biggest irony of the whole using the format war to make downloading more favorable is that even with downloads, there would still be a format war. Xbox Live, PSN, PC based distributors, and cable/sattelite companies are all capable of vying for attention; and that would be even more confusing than 2 types of hi-density discs.

[Techsan]

Originally Posted by sardaukar1977

I don't know about that, I used to say I'd keep buying CD's forever, and now I download all my music, you never see me checking out the new cd release section at Best Buy, anymore.

I can see movies going to this some day, not for a while though.

As a PC user I've been exposed to the misfortune of having downloads "lost" after some curruption issues. I completely agree with what one user said about the physical media being a "security blanket". As a user of "MovieBeam" as well, you get used to the fact that you have downloads and then they are yanked away from you which has soured me on downloaded content.

As far as Lucas releasing the Star Wars films, Im sure he'll drag his feet as usual, and until he releases them on BD, I guess I'll have to be content with my DVR'ed Star Wars movies in 1080i via DirecTV.

[WickyWoo]

Music is different. For the vast majority music is a disposible, passive esperience. It's something for the car, or the gym. 4min and it's outta there

A movie is a dedicated, long-term (2 hour) experience.

[Manco]

Folks....Star Wars is like a national treasure. Lucas will not use this as a "format decider". That would be sort of sacrilege. Until there is a clear victory and a LOT of players (like many, many millions) SW will not see the light of day on HiDef. Look at how Disney handles Mickey Mouse. Same idea. Lucas will wait for a "big splash" with lots of penetration. It will not be used for anything that could be construed as a negative.

SW will not go down in the history books as the "Format Killer" movie. I would not expect to see SW on BD for at least 2 years.

[richteer]

Originally Posted by blublublu

What is the attachment to a piece of plastic? There's no point "collecting" plastic if you can watch whatever you want, whenever you want, at a reasonable cost, and desired quality.

You clearly don't "get" collecting! It's not just about the disc, it's about the artwork, being one of the "limited edition" owners, etc.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Manco

SW will not go down in the history books as the "Format Killer" movie. I would not expect to see SW on BD for at least 2 years.

I tend to agree. But:

Industry sources have informed us that McCallum also added that if the high-def format war isn't resolved soon, the company might skip high-def disc altogether and release the films in HD via download only

That doesn't seem to be a quote from someone talking that lots of penetration is required before it happens.

General adoption and SOON are oxymoronic terms.

Gary

[WickyWoo]

Rick McCallum also often jumps the gun on things. He hasn't been known in the past for accuracy.

While they may toss SW on XBox live in HD or something ,there is no possible way Lucas, the quality king that he is will skip disc.