Top Gun: Maverick (2022)

[LordoftheRings]

Just for fun; playing with numbers ($$$)
▪︎ https://www.indiewire.com/2022/03/mp...ng-1234707572/

* Maverick is still gong to beat Black Panther @ the box office.
I'd say by around the weekend of September 9-11

** Maverick has the potential to reach $720 million by the end of October.
Then it'll make another pile of cash from the sale of physical discs (DVD, Blu-ray and 4K UHD Blu-ray).

Maverick is big, on all fronts. Maverick is a $2 billion flick worldwide.

[LordoftheRings]

It's inevitable; totally awesome.

[BluBonnet]

Originally Posted by LordoftheRings

Maverick is a $2 billion flick worldwide.

I told you it would get there

[Ernest Rister]

Streaming retailers take a cut. A $20 movie on Vudu or iTunes or Amazon Prime returns $14 back to the studio. No manufacturing costs, just electrons. I think this is going to be the model...theatrical release, then streaming retailers/rentals. Then subscription services get it, then lastly physical. I figure physical media is now the lowest rung on the ladder despite having the best quality and usually including the digital code and similar price points. Best of all worlds, I'll just wait it out for the 4K release in November. I doubt I'll rewatch it that often, but if I'm going to own it, I'm going to be smart about it.

[BluBonnet]

Originally Posted by Ernest Rister

Streaming retailers take a cut. A $20 movie on Vudu or iTunes or Amazon Prime returns $14 back to the studio. No manufacturing costs, just electrons. I think this is going to be the model...streaming retailers/rentals. Then subscription services get it, then physical. I figure physical media is now the lowest rung on the ladder despite being the same price (as a new Blu disc, not 4K) and the best quality and usually including the digital code. Best of all worlds, I'll just wait it out for the 4K release in November. I doubt I'll rewatch it that often, but if I'm going to own it, I'm going to be smart about it.

You're talking VOD or PVOD and that's a fair point but I was referring more specifically to the studios with their own streaming - Disney+, Paramount+, Peacock...

[Ernest Rister]

Paramount+ isn't getting Maverick on Tuesday, just the streaming retailers. IndieWire said no release date has been set for Paramount+ yet, and that analytics have shown no single film release moves the needle on subscription services (since people can just watch and cancel and pay less than buying a digital copy or physical disc or even a movie ticket), it's more about libraries and new original content for subscriber growth and retention.

[filmbuffTX]

Originally Posted by BluBonnet

You're talking VOD or PVOD and that's a fair point but I was referring more specifically to the studios with their own streaming - Disney+, Paramount+, Peacock...

That's even worse because they don't make a dime by streaming it on their own service. If they licensed it to Netflix or another network/streamer then that would be real quantifiable income. Otherwise it's just more fodder for their streaming service. Just to maintain their subscriber base and maybe attract a few new subscribers here and there along the way.

[BluBonnet]

Originally Posted by filmbuffTX

Just to maintain their subscriber base and maybe attract a few new subscribers here and there along the way.

Not surprised that you don't think that has any value

[filmbuffTX]

Originally Posted by BluBonnet

Not surprised that you don't think that has any value

I'm a Paramount+ subscriber. The 'no ads' version.

[cheez avenger]

I will probably snag the digital version next week. Waiting until November sucks.

[BluBonnet]

Originally Posted by filmbuffTX

I'm a Paramount+ subscriber. The 'no ads' version.

That's the best version

[filmbuffTX]

I'm going to try to catch a ScreenX showing next week. I never buy or rent new release digital movies. I'll wait until it hits Paramount+ or a disc release to watch it at home.

[BluBonnet]

It looks pretty good in ScreenX, actually, it has more exclusive footage than some other ScreenX versions out there.

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by BluBonnet

I told you it would get there

With everything (streaming, PVOD, digital, various physical disc formats, merchandises, ...) maybe close. But strictly @ the box office in the year 2022, no.
__________

* On other related news ...

"Tom Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick earned another $1.55 million (-22%) to push its domestic cume to $679 million. That puts it above the $678.815 million lifetime cume of Avengers: Infinity War to become the sixth-biggest domestic grosser of all time. It’ll earn $5.44 million (-23%) in weekend 12 for a new $683 million domestic cume. Even a normal rate of descent from this point would give it $693 million, so getting past Black Panther’s $700 million cume will be less mission: impossible and more mission: difficult.
For this film, even with its digital PVOD release on Tuesday, ‘mission: difficult’ should be a walk in the park. Likewise, it should be close to, if not already past, the $1.405 billion global gross of Avengers: Age of Ultron to become the second biggest ‘part two’ sequel ever behind Frozen II ($1.45 billion)." - Forbes

Black Panther ... "a walk in the park".

* Tomorrow ... Maverick is worth $1.4 billion globally.
And after that it won't freeze; it'll climb up to Frozen II.

[BluBonnet]

Originally Posted by LordoftheRings

But strictly @ the box office in the year 2022, no.

I wouldn't rule anything out, tbh. There's a scarcity of big new titles until November, so with just a bit of staying power it could still go quite far, hopefully people keep going to the theaters to watch it instead of just getting it digitally...

[LordoftheRings]

In the article's quote above the guy from Forbes made a not insignificant mistake; see if you can spot it.

[BluBonnet]

Yes, I spotted it right away. He used a different color for one paragraph, it stands out like a sore thumb

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by BluBonnet

I wouldn't rule anything out, tbh. There's a scarcity of big new titles until November, so with just a bit of staying power it could still go quite far, hopefully people keep going to the theaters to watch it instead of just getting it digitally...

1.455 billion is my max prediction. If Maverick reach 2.0 billion by the last day of this year I'll buy you your next ticket to see it again on January 1st, 2023. Deal?

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by BluBonnet

Yes, I spotted it right away. He used a different color for one paragraph, it stands out like a sore thumb

Ya right ... (use dark mode; better for your eyes).

* Tip: It's a wrong number.

[BluBonnet]

Originally Posted by LordoftheRings

* Tip: It's a wrong number.

I'm terrible with numbers but I could ask my accountant on Monday