Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by bruceames

A few points Dr. Fauci made:

Changes in positivity rates and hospitalizations,

like for example in Texas and Arizona -

3 of most populous states hit record highs for coronavirus cases - YouTube

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by bruceames

wear masks when appropriate.

what Tony does when he ventures outside in D.C. – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFA8u_8bx_I#t=12m17s

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by bruceames

A few points Dr. Fauci made:
A second wave isn't a certainly,

yes, that’s true from a national perspective, but I can tell you that is of little solace to people who develop serious illness due to COVID-19 because of negligence by the likes of the ‘we don’t like people telling us what we can do and what we can’t do 100%’ guy interviewed on the pier in that ABC news video in the post above when there may be multiple individuals around who may unknowingly be carrying the virus and one factors in the yet TBD composite additive effect of being exposed to the total viral load in outing(s)

the key thing is we all should try to get ahead of the virus in our behavior and policies and not always be reacting after the fact and playing catch up

[Penton-Man]

as to the productive aspects of the fight against the disease in a clinical setting, notwithstanding the cavalier behavior of some of the public, therapeutic management is becoming more refined over time with the off label use of a monoclonal antibody , more availability of convalescent plasma and remdesivir .

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

like for example in Texas and Arizona -
3 of most populous states hit record highs for coronavirus cases - YouTube

If we compare what we just saw in that above video to other countries, like China for example; the wearing of masks varies widely. Also the preventive measures (spreading of the virus) in China are draconian, heavily regimented, regulated, ... quarantines are imposed with an iron fist...nobody in nobody out. In their first wave/spike they were even locking people in their apartments by soldering metal bars to their doors! ...Some.

Of course in Canada we don't do that; that'll be the day.

My opinion: I believe many people still don't realize how serious this pandemic is.
Wait another six months or so ... but in many places we won't have to wait for that long...a month or so. That's my own personal opinion based on data...hospitals and numbers too.
It's tough, real tough to predict when you are facing an invisible virus highly contagious and unpredictable because not enough accurate data yet.

Like you said Penton; hope for the best prepare for the worst.

* A simple observation: On weekends the numbers appear generally lower...on average.
I don't know the exact reason but I have a theory; weekends are still quality time to spend for workers, including data compilators. It's only a very loose guess, probably nothing.

One thing is for sure; we don't have 8,000 deaths plus a day nowadays...worldwide.
It varies, roughly from 3,000 to 5,000 ... more or less.

Also, nobody knows when exactly another wave will hit. It's not like a movie with a special anniversary re-release presentation (sometimes with few additional scenes). ...Say Avatar, Titanic, Gone With The Wind, The Wizard of Oz, Avengers: Endgame.
Or, all the movie sequels; Jaws, Alien, Robocop, First Blood, Rocky, The Terminator, Die hard.

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by bruceames

A second wave isn't a certainly, especially if people continue to social distance and wear masks when appropriate.

I think a second wave is starting to begin with the way cases are spiking in so many states. No excuse for that to happen because if NY is able to re-open and keep the number of cases at a stable level given its density, then no reason other states can't do the same. It's disgraceful that other states aren't taking this as seriously as NY is.

[LordoftheRings]

New York is not out of the woods yet. And a second wave is not out of the question say this Fall, for New York. We just don't know, nobody knows.

[Pondosinatra]

Enjoy the next 2 months....downhill from there...

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...=pocket-newtab

[bruceames]

A second (or third) wave is associated with colder weather and/or a different (worst) strain. Since this virus is very stable, I believe it's only going to be due to the weather. That's why many experts like Dr. Fauci aren't convinced we're going to have a second wave at all. This is a coronavirus, not a typical cold/flu virus that is always mutating and changing.

It's estimated that the warmer weather mitigates airborne viruses by around 20%. So, due to the summer weather upon us, cases are about 20% lower than what they would be in the colder months (difference would be less in southern states).

So this fall/winter we might see a 20% spike in cases. Don't know if a 20% increase would be enough to call it a wave (by the CDC/WHO definition anyway).

Since the virus is so stable and not mutating, a second wave would mean a certain percentage of the population would be immune. Hardest hit areas would be in the best shape (especially NYC metro area). Also stable virus is good news for the possibility of vaccines.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by MrHT

....It's disgraceful that other states aren't taking this as seriously as NY is.

I think Gov. Cuomo has been one of the shining stars in this ordeal, true leadership.

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by bruceames

A second (or third) wave is associated with colder weather and/or a different (worst) strain. Since this virus is very stable, I believe it's only going to be due to the weather. That's why many experts like Dr. Fauci aren't convinced we're going to have a second wave at all. This is a coronavirus, not a typical cold/flu virus that is always mutating and changing.

It's estimated that the warmer weather mitigates airborne viruses by around 20%. So, due to the summer weather upon us, cases are about 20% lower than what they would be in the colder months (difference would be less in southern states).

So this fall/winter we might see a 20% spike in cases. Don't know if a 20% increase would be enough to call it a wave (by the CDC/WHO definition anyway).

Since the virus is so stable and not mutating, a second wave would mean a certain percentage of the population would be immune. Hardest hit areas would be in the best shape (especially NYC metro area). Also stable virus is good news for the possibility of vaccines.

So why are Florida & Texas experiencing a spike? I'm pretty sure it's a lot warmer over there than over here in NY.

I was originally convinced that the warm weather might a contributing factor to the decline cases here in NY, but that fact that there are recent spikes in warm places has me doubting that theory.

I think it's human behavior that determines it all. Yes, a lot of NYers are very sloppy with their behavior, but there are still a good number of people wearing masks and remaining cautious and I feel that's the reason why cases are going down. Don't forget too that most stores here in NY forbid entrance unless you have a face mask... and indoors is where it's especially important to wear face coverings. I tell you, the masks really work wonders.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by Pondosinatra

Enjoy the next 2 months....

question is with the pools and gyms closed

How Hotels Aim To Adapt For The Coronavirus Crisis | NBC Nightly News - YouTube

will hotels now waive those ‘resort fees’ - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/23/b...ection%20laws. they smack guests with at some of the higher end properties that I’ve stayed at

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by bruceames

So this fall/winter we might see a 20% spike in cases....

New Zealand is entering winter. Wonder if their cases will increase by 20%.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by MrHT

So why are Florida & Texas experiencing a spike? I'm pretty sure it's a lot warmer over there than over here in NY.

I was originally convinced that the warm weather might a contributing factor to the decline cases here in NY, but that fact that there are recent spikes in warm places has me doubting that theory.

I think it's human behavior that determines it all. Yes, a lot of NYers are very sloppy with their behavior, but there are still a good number of people wearing masks and remaining cautious and I feel that's the reason why cases are going down. Don't forget too that most stores here in NY forbid entrance unless you have a face mask and indoors is where it's especially important to wear face coverings. I tell you, the masks really work wonders.

Florida it's because of increased testing. The 7 day moving average for the positivity rate is near the lowest it's ever been. Hospitalizations are down. The media will focus on the worst metrics for the worst states and ignore everything else. They won't say anything about the other states that have reopened and have seen cases and positivity rates go down.

It's better to look at the U.S. as a whole, rather that focus only on states where cases go up. As Dr. Fauci said, when you test more, you get more cases. And in spite of that, total cases have remained stable in the U.S., while deaths continue to decline (only 328 today, the lowest since March 28th).

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Florida it's because of increased testing. The 7 day moving average for the positivity rate is near the lowest it's ever been. Hospitalizations are down....

If she’s maintained/updated it, I’d first have to check Johnson’s dashboard before I believe what’s coming out of Florida authorities -
https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/ne...os/3174482001/

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

question is with the pools and gyms closed

How Hotels Aim To Adapt For The Coronavirus Crisis | NBC Nightly News - YouTube

will hotels now waive those ‘resort fees’ - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/23/b...ection%20laws. they smack guests with at some of the higher end properties that I’ve stayed at

Crap, that looks onerous. I have hotel rooms reserved at various location during the summer and fall and if it's going to be like that I might reconsider a few of them. Especially at the rates I signed up for.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

If she’s maintained/updated it, I’d first have to check Johnson’s dashboard before I believe what’s coming out of Florida authorities -
https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/ne...os/3174482001/

Her dashboard has almost the same data as the official site. The difference is statistically insignificant.

[Waboman]

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Crap, that looks onerous. I have hotel rooms reserved at various location during the summer and fall and if it's going to be like that I might reconsider a few of them. Especially at the rates I signed up for.

I don’t mind the safety procedures...although I admit I will miss certain breakfast buffets at certain highend properties. What I don’t like is getting smacked with a resort fee for services I never use nor intended to use.

[Penton-Man]

^ and the human interest stories, like Mother and Daughter matching at the same place –

Inspiring Mother-Daughter Doctor Duo Makes History | NBC Nightly News - YouTube