Real 4k disks - what do you think the rollout timeline will be?

[#Darren]

Any opinions welcomed.

[Crom1]

Complete guess - 1 year away.

[HD Goofnut]

By the middle of 2015.

[Cevolution]

Sony Australia have started heavily promoting this ad for their 4ktv

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVmy2W1mKi0

Anyway... There are comments all over Sony Australia's Facebook page from people who think 4k blu-rays already exist, thinking that the "mastered in 4k" discs are in fact native 4k titles.

[Scorpion Soldier]

Most likely somewhere between 2015 and 2020. Sony and Panasonic are already working on optical discs with a minimum storage capacity of 300GB with the goal to finish development in 2015. Though launching yet another disc-based medium next to Blu-ray may take it a few years to make it viable for consumers, especially since you're gonna need a big enough install-base of users with 4K displays to sell it to.

[erlinmeyer]

continuing the cycle...

DVDs came out in 1996
Blu-rays came out in 2006,
so maybe the next iteration in 2016

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by #Darren

Any opinions welcomed.

In my opinion, there is some value in these opinion threads as they promote the validation of one’s thoughts through personal expression…which is a driving force behind many forums. Not to mention, if every opinion is considered of equal value, we can easily work with that data (as long as you guys supply a specific time frame, i.e. one year, two years, etc. rather than a range.

And if there are enough contributions with a specific time frame (note to tar heel guy, “years” can’t be plotted ), an industrious fellow (*between jobs*) can then plot MOS (mean opinion score) values, which is, and has been done as a matter of analysis in some technical papers, and from that, then determine a 95% confidence interval. We can then bookmark this thread, and after 4KBD’s do launch, we can have a retrospective look at how accurate this thread was in the first place.

Keep those opinions coming!

[Brightstar]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

In my opinion, there is some value in these opinion threads as they promote the validation of one’s thoughts through personal expression…which is a driving force behind many forums. Not to mention, if every opinion is considered of equal value, we can easily work with that data (as long as you guys supply a specific time frame, i.e. one year, two years, etc. rather than a range.

And if there are enough contributions with a specific time frame (note to tar heel guy, “years” can’t be plotted ), an industrious fellow (*between jobs*) can then plot MOS (mean opinion score) values, which is, and has been done as a matter of analysis in some technical papers, and from that, then determine a 95% confidence interval. We can then bookmark this thread, and after 4KBD’s do launch, we can have a retrospective look at how accurate this thread was in the first place.

Keep those opinions coming!

That sounds like a good idea count me in.

[Jack9909090]

I think the bigger question is if the general public (most of who are not videophiles) will care. Hell Blu-ray hasn't even overtaken DVD's Yet. And now they want to roll out yet another format for a TV that cost a couple of thousand more than getting a 720p/1080p TV for the same size. I think 4k won't take over 1080p for the same reason why Blu-ray's haven't taken over DVD for quite a while now. Because it's cheaper and a lot of people simply don't care.

[vargo]

It's looking increasingly unlikely there will be another physical format.

Revenue from physical formats goes down every year, revenue from digital delivery goes up. According to the recent DEG report, revenue from digital was 36% of total revenue in the first half of 2013.

Revenue from physical media will fall to under 50% of total revenue within three years and under 30% by 2020. Its an ever shrinking market and launching another format to take a small piece of that shrinking market would be pointless.

4K is not going to be the cash-cow that the industry hoped for anyway.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by vargo

It's looking increasingly unlikely there will be another physical format...

Well then varg, if that’s the case, for practical relevancy to the whole matter at hand, perhaps someone should start an opinion thread on whether streamed (downloading being only a temporary solution to delivery) 4K content will show any real PQ superiority to 1080p Blu-ray.

For example, there is actually some controversy among experts in the D-Cinema community as to whether a 2K DCP with maxed out bit rate (https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...um#post7820790 ) employed will look superior to a 4K DCP with frugally encoded bit rates.

[Brightstar]

UHD might be just round the corner take a look .

http://www.engadget.com/2013/08/19/k...rvice-in-2014/

[I KEEL YOU]

I would like a brand new, proper 4K disc format to come out, but it probably won't pay off for the companies. I mean, if you've been with the blu ray format since the relative beginning, I am sure you're familiar with how much time it has taken for blu ray to beat DVD. Well, this new format would have an even harder time beating blu ray than the blu ray did with DVD since the jump in picture quality wouldn't be as high as it was from DVD to blu ray. And in the meantime, non-physical media is only growing. Plus the blu ray was easier to release because studios already had 2K masters of nearly every movie in their library, ready to be put on a blu ray disc right away. But for this new disc, it would take so much time to remaster and restore them all over again for 4K scans. There would be so few titles available.

The most likely, although not the best, solution is to use the BDXL format.. Release software updates for the blu ray disc players so that they can play the new efficient 4K codecs and the 128GB discs, and have the 4K movies playing at bit rates that are as high as the blu ray format can pull off. It wouldn't be as good as having 80-100 mbps bit rates on a brand new format, but it's probably the best we can realistically hope for.

[vargo]

Originally Posted by I KEEL YOU

The most likely, although not the best, solution is to use the BDXL format.. Release software updates for the blu ray disc players so that they can play the new efficient 4K codecs and the 128GB discs, and have the 4K movies playing at bit rates that are as high as the blu ray format can pull off. It wouldn't be as good as having 80-100 mbps bit rates on a brand new format, but it's probably the best we can realistically hope for.

4K and BDXL would both require new players. Existing players cannot do it with a software update, it is technically impossible.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

Well then varg, if that’s the case, for practical relevancy to the whole matter at hand, perhaps someone should start an opinion thread on whether streamed (downloading being only a temporary solution to delivery) 4K content will show any real PQ superiority to 1080p Blu-ray.

For example, there is actually some controversy among experts in the D-Cinema community as to whether a 2K DCP with maxed out bit rate (https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...um#post7820790 ) employed will look superior to a 4K DCP with frugally encoded bit rates.

The difference in a movie theatre is that with 2K and a large screen, you get the "screen-door" effect, especially with brightly lit scenes. You don't get that with 4K (or certainly not as much) no matter how crappy the bit rate is.

And why would they encode a 4K DCP with a frugally encoded bit rate in the first place? As long as it fits on the hard disk, the only issue is the amount of time it takes to upload the DCP, right?

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

The difference in a movie theatre is that with 2K and a large screen, you get the "screen-door" effect, especially with brightly lit scenes. You don't get that with 4K (or certainly not as much) no matter how crappy the bit rate is...

True, at least depending upon how close you sit to the screen but, keep in mind you’re trading one *evil* (screen-door effect, stairstep jaggies, etc.) for another *evil* (softening due to bit starvation), if frugal bit rates were to be employed in the later situation.

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

...And why would they encode a 4K DCP with a frugally encoded bit rate in the first place? As long as it fits on the hard disk, the only issue is the amount of time it takes to upload the DCP, right?

That’s not a small issue, where time = money in any field/profession. For more, see the last paragraph here - https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...er#post7684634

Plus, the smaller the total GB of the movie, the less costly it is to store it long term, and, for instance, replicate it (time factored in again), for something such as a repertory showing several years after the first run exhibition.

If all of the above factors were considered irrelevant then in order to automatically ensure maximal picture quality of all the imagery on the largest of theatrical screens one would be seeing near maximum constant encoding bit rate for 4K DCP (and a resultant file size of roughly 230 GBytes (image only) for just a 2hr. long feature), which we’re not seeing in practice with the deliverables. On the contrary, it seems DCP file sizes of the features themselves have been getting smaller over time.

However, if saving money any which way you can is of some priority, then when you carefully consider the pieces of the entire process, there are subtle incentives to make DCPs as small as possible. Question is how small before astute audiences can notice a decrease in quality? That’s a tough call because you would have to have seen how sharp the original material (the DCDM’s .tiff files) was. Hopefully, the JPEG2000 encoding rates are high enough to remain visually lossless to the original content on the biggest of D-Cinema screens and audiences are getting close to what the filmmakers saw in the D.I. suites….as intended.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

The difference in a movie theatre is that with 2K and a large screen, you get the "screen-door" effect, especially with brightly lit scenes. You don't get that with 4K (or certainly not as much) no matter how crappy the bit rate is.

screen door effect has nothing to do with pixel count. Now obviously with more pixels it is even more important to have less space between them (i.e. the definition of SDE) , but if the technology exists it can be equally used with less pixels as with more.

[Double0Hokie]

Originally Posted by vargo

4K is not going to be the cash-cow that the industry hoped for anyway.

I agree. This could be the Minidisc of the HT industry. The general public is happy with DVDs and BDs. When they can start selling 4k TVs at Wal-Mart and Target will the general public think to upgrade. My family can’t tell the difference betwen my 2010 Toshiba LCD playing DVDs and my 2012 Panasonic Plasma playing BDs. If the picture is bright they OOHH and AHHH.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by vargo

4K is not going to be the cash-cow that the industry hoped for anyway.

I’m curious as to what executive from any company has stated or insinuated ‘the cash cow’ thing either publically (or privately to you)? Honestly, varg, I think you’re reading too much into the expectations of the consumer electronics companies, hell, they’re just happy to see 4K as an innovative solution to at least impede or hopefully reverse declining TV sales (given competition from tablets, smartphones, etc.) and make a respectable buck in the process since 3D didn’t really pan out as a selling point.

Sure, one Japanese corporation in particular is putting a lot of resources into making 4K become successful, but that’s not so much in that they envision extraordinary profitability with 4K…rather, it’s more that their consumer electronics division has been hemorrhaging money for years and this may slow or prevent that bleeding, plus the fact they can’t think of a better cure. Everyone else sees a buck to be made, so they're all jumping on the 4K bandwagon too.

Regardless, I think that serious home theater enthusiasts will benefit in the long run rather than companies chasing the best smart tv features.

[vargo]

Many people in the CE industry hoped it would be a cash cow. Not just Sony.

None of them have enjoyed the race to the bottom that has been happening these recent years with TV sets.

They hoped that 4K would be a selling point to shift more TVs in the $2000+ range. 4K is a relatively cheap feature to add, despite what they would like you to think. Thanks largely to the mobile sector, making a very high res display is quite easy nowadays. It certainly does not add thousands of dollars to the production cost.

That is the very definition of a cash cow, something that significantly increases profit margins. The same thing they hoped 3D would do, Smart TV would do.. they are desperately grasping for anything to make Joe Soap go out and buy a higher priced TV.


Their plans have already been scuppered by rogue brands selling 4K TVs for under $1000. The worth and prestige of 4K in the eyes of the consumer has already been lowered.