Archived: Insiders Thread

[zipbags]

Originally Posted by sj001

I believe from what the Insiders alluded to, that Warner will or has made their own decision regarding their stance. I just can't see another payoff happening, I know $$$ rules, but some companies actually have some integrity.

Or like someone just said. BDA wasn't going to let another Paramount happen. And made a big $$$ deal to Warner?

[Elandyll]

I see a lot of things thrown around about :weight", so I decided to dig in.

Sony year to date revenue: $70B (as of 12/7/07 - source NYT)
Microsoft ytd revenue: $51B (same)
Toshiba 2007 revenue : $60B (2007 financial report)
Matsushita projected 2008 (end March 2008) revenue: $76B (source edn.com)
Philips : $38B (source cnn money)

[WickyWoo]

I believe from what the Insiders alluded to, that Warner will or has made their own decision regarding their stance. I just can't see another payoff happening, I know $$$ rules, but some companies actually have some integrity.

One thing I've learned over the years is that no company has integrity when the benefits outweigh the cons

Unlike Paramount, WB has purged their double agent working the inside

Unlike Paramount, WB is thinking about their business 5 years, 10 years, 15 years down the line

Unlike Paramount, WB is not going to be happy willynilly exposing their content to a format that's irreversably cracked wide open.

If they were going to cashgrab, they would have done it already, and I'm quite positive that WB knows that if they let HD media die on the vine as a mainstream format by taking the short term, they're surrendering the sale of their content permanently to the Xbox Lives and iTunes of the world, and they also know that the amount of people willing to pay full price for a digital download is very small. People are willing to go for a dollar a song a la carte, people are not willing to pay $10-20 for a movie. Music is seen by the current market as a fairly disposible thing, something you do while you do something else. Movies are not.

[Icemage]

Originally Posted by sj001

I believe from what the Insiders alluded to, that Warner will or has made their own decision regarding their stance. I just can't see another payoff happening, I know $$$ rules, but some companies actually have some integrity.

Apologies for the intrusion here, but I don't think it's an issue of integrity, so much as an exercise in reading tea-leaves.

(I'll note here that everything in this post is opinion only, as I have no information beyond what any user with access to the Internet has.)

Warner, now more so than ever, have the opportunity to alter the optical disc landscape for the coming decade with a single decision. While money and other considerations are no doubt being offered to them, it seems like they're doing what they've always done: look to the future.

If you read up on the history of DVD, you'll see that Warner was the studio that was most active in promoting DVD and bringing software pricing down from the LaserDisc-like standards that the format launched with.

Fast forward to today. Who has the lowest priced HD DVD and Blu-ray discs at retail? Sony? Universal? Paramount? Fox? Disney? No. The answer is, once again: Warner.

Look at their investments, too. Warner holds significant patent properties in DVD. They hold significant patents on both HD DVD and Blu-ray. I also believe they're also the only major studio outside of Sony to have a fully functional disc publishing department, from transferral to compression. All hallmarks of a forward-thinking mentality where they actively plan for the future.

As such, I think what's going to influence Warner most isn't immediate considerations, but rather what they see as the final outcome of any decision they make. They must be watching their own disc sales trends as well as those of the overall market, and trying to see what will happen if they make a choice one way or the other, as well as what happens if they leave the status quo and remain neutral.

With DVD sales flat, and falling, and theatrical box office sales falling as well, I think they must realize that they need HDM to take off to fill the void before downloads can take hold and revitalize the home video revenue stream. While hundreds of millions sounds like a lot of money, that barely funds a single film these days, and the home video return from a single blockbuster film will often recoup that and more. If they make the wrong decision and end up killing HDM, their own overall economic forecast will take a lot more punishment than even a nine-digit payoff will make up for.

[Alan Gordon]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

Unlike Paramount, WB has purged their double agent working the inside

Unlike Paramount, WB is thinking about their business 5 years, 10 years, 15 years down the line

Unlike Paramount, WB is not going to be happy willynilly exposing their content to a format that's irreversably cracked wide open.

Plus, you left out that WB didn't appear to be very happy with Paramount/HD DVD for those fake "Transformers" "numbers"!

~Alan

[WickyWoo]

Plus, you left out that WB didn't appear to be very happy with Paramount/HD DVD for those fake "Transformers" "numbers"!

They were not pleased, no

[darinp2]

I'm going to basically repeat a question I asked earlier, but with some new information. This thread here:

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=26417

links to an article which says that Time Warner has gotten some investment from the Dubai region. I don't know if it was the same person or group who invested in Sony recently, but if so, is there any chance they could help with any negotiations (as far as letting Time Warner know they would like them to make a decision that would be mutually beneficial to Time Warner and Sony)?

Jeff Zucker (of NBC Universal) also indicated that they are open to investment from that region, so maybe the people behind the Sony investment could help convince Universal also.

And I know insiders have to be careful about what they say about these companies and their products, but I wonder if The Golden Compass starting out with very disappointing box office results in the US (looks like it will be worse than Evan Almighty's first weekend) makes them more likely to look for money soon from elsewhere. I know New Line is part of a big company (Time Warner), but could still probably use an infusion of cash.

One more for Penton-Man. I'm sure you can't tell us the budget, but can you say how Across the Universe did at the US box office compared to the expectations, with its budget? Seems like $24 million was pretty impressive if it was done with a low budget. I know there was some stuff going on behind the scenes with different versions. Has it been considered a success so far?

--Darin

[Fozziwig]

^^ Just to add some detail:

In what might well turn out to be the biggest deal by any studio in motion picture history, Warner Bros. has entered into an agreement with the Abu Dhabi real-estate developer ALDAR and the Abu Dhabi Media Company in which the Abu Dhabi companies have agreed to set up a $500-million fund to co-finance Warner Bros. movies. A separate $500-million fund will be created to co-develop and -publish video games. In addition, the studio and the Abu Dhabi companies have established a partnership to produce movies, TV shows and video games in Arabic and to construct a 6,000-acre campus including a theme park, hotel and movie-theater complex. During a conference call on Wednesday, Warner Bros. chief Barry Meyer said that the studio had never entered a deal of the "size, scope and breadth" of this one. In a statement, Mohammed Khalaf Al Mazrouei, chairman of Abu Dhabi Media Co., predicted that "this agreement will put Abu Dhabi at the center of the world's entertainment map."

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0583028/news

Gulf stream: In addition to established sector player Saudi Prince Al Waleed, several Middle East investors recently have put capital into entertainment companies

Target: Warner Bros. Entertainment
Investor: ALDAR and Abu Dhabi Media Co.
Announced: Sept. 26
A broad-based strategic alliance including $500 million feature film fund, $500 million video game fund and plans to build out entertainment infrastructure

Target: Sony Corp.
Investor: Dubai International Capital
Announced: Nov. 26
Acquisition of a stake in Sony of less than 5%, likely in the $1 billion-$1.5 billion range

............

Target: News Corp., Time Warner, Disney
Investor: Saudi Prince Al Waleed
Announced: Ongoing
Minority stakes in entertainment conglomerates

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...93c1774a8?pn=5

Puts the P/DW $150 million into perspective, doesn't it?

[patrick99]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

Sorry Patrick, an announcement like that is truly a defining moment in the format war and it would be disrespectful of me (and possibly counterproductive) to even hint as to when I think they will make it.

That is up to WB and only WB to indicate when a major announcement like format exclusivity will be forthcoming.
I’m actually a tad surprised that Mr. Burns even revealed the rumor publicly to BusinessWeek but, I guess if you’re Vice Chairman of a major studio, you can do pretty much whatever you want to, if you’ve covered all your bases.

Of course I didn't really expect to get an answer to this question, Penton-Man. I merely hoped that the question would prompt some interesting responses. For example, it's good to know that Mr. Burns probably "covered all [his] bases" before talking to BW. Many thanks as always for your valuable contributions here. Thanks as well to Paid and Max.

[patrick99]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

Both, I imagine.

Of course I only saw the Blu side of things.

Would it be fair to assume that consisted largely of communications with Warner? Feel free not to answer. Btw, as I said above in my post to P-M, many thanks for your contributions here, Max, and thanks as well to your employer, whoever that may be, for apparently encouraging your participation.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by darinp2

One more for Penton-Man. I'm sure you can't tell us the budget, but can you say how Across the Universe did at the US box office compared to the expectations, with its budget? Seems like $24 million was pretty impressive if it was done with a low budget. I know there was some stuff going on behind the scenes with different versions. Has it been considered a success so far?

--Darin

The *official* original budget was $45 mill.
Rumor has it, the budget was actually closer to $75 mill….. and you all know about recent Business rumors this Week.
Hopefully, it will become a cult classic for its great music and ride the home media wave more successfully.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by mystiksuicide

Hey I am disapointed in you Penton you didn't get to vote for me as the hottest blu member. lol

Even though our mods pulled the thread especially since I was winning.

I never saw the thread.
If I had, you would’ve gotten 2 votes. One directly from me and the other by proxy from Mr. Happy , who never learned to type.

P.S.
I venture they pulled it because they were getting too aroused to perform their duties with a clear un-feverish mind. We need our mods focused for any red ant invasions!

And with that my dear, I bid thee adieu as I gracefully exit for LAX.
Later.

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

I never saw the thread.
If I had, you would’ve gotten 2 votes. One directly from me and the other by proxy from Mr. Happy , who never learned to type.

That's wrong on so many levels, but absolutely hysterical.

[WickyWoo]

If I had, you would’ve gotten 2 votes. One directly from me and the other by proxy from Mr. Happy , who never learned to type.

He's just a hunt and pecker

*rimshot*

[binarymelon]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

...and you all know about recent Business rumors this Week.

ten chars.

[Neo65]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

^^ Just to add some detail:


http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0583028/news



http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...93c1774a8?pn=5

Puts the P/DW $150 million into perspective, doesn't it?

There's a difference between 150M mostly made up of incentives and joint promos and a deal like this. This deal looks like it's all cash.

[WickyWoo]

This is a cash investment in future projects

Seriously, Dubai is business as usual, and shouldn't be read into as anything for the format war

[WickyWoo]

It's Toshiba that people need to worry about... the shortsighted company that's willing to scorch the Earth just to not lose (normally I'd say win, but even Toshiba has to realize they can't win this thing...). It's dangerous and when a hardware company is so willing to destroy the hardware market just to push their product. That's desperation and clearly Toshiba doesn't want to lose the safety net of royalties that it's had for so long -- it's playing the "if I can't have it, nobody can" game at this point and Microsoft is happily playing a long.

I'd say it's far more face saving at this point. There's dozens if not hundreds of people who are backed into a corner by this thing and they're willing to try anything to keep their jobs

This time next year, should all go well, I doubt most of our "name brand" nemesis are going to have their current positions

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

I'd say it's far more face saving at this point. There's dozens if not hundreds of people who are backed into a corner by this thing and they're willing to try anything to keep their jobs

This time next year, should all go well, I doubt most of our "name brand" nemesis are going to have their current positions

.. I doubt most of our "name brand" nemesis are going to have their current positions

As some of the Red "insiders" have already been removed from positions within their corporations and relegated to essentially "do nothing" positions.

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by whippersnapper

As some of the Red "insiders" have already been removed from positions within their corporations and relegated to essentially "do nothing" positions.

Exactly right. Amir @ M$ and Steve Nickerson @ WB.

Mr. Bell and Mr. Graffeo and/or Mr. Kornblau are the specific folks who maybe on the line at this time next year or before...