Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

India is beginning to ramp. They are, how do I say this delicately, not set up well for this virus.

Wish I could do an Amazon return of China's "gift to the world"

I think many of these dense, poorer countries will see herd immunity before a vaccine arrives. The economic consequences from social distancing in some cases may be doing more harm than good for these places. It's a pick your poison between widespread starvation and overwhelmed critical cases. Really a bad situation that will get much worse.

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Interesting that Stockholm and NYC have nearly the same percentage of people with antibodies (20%). If / when this second wave hits, the hardest hit places now will probably be the best off. If it happens in say, November, who knows, these two places may already have achieved herd immunity by then (60% or more of people who had it).

I'm really not sure about the 20% number for NYC. They tested 1,300 people in NYC, which in my opinion is way too small a sample size to apply to a population of 8.5 million people. They tested people at grocery stores too, and wasn't randomized, which may also skew results, and make it harder to generalize. . I think we need to test a lot more people to really get a more accurate look at how many people have it.

Someone from the the Serology dept. at Mount Sinai also stated that the number seems too high:

“I think this is too high. It is possible. But a 20% plus infection rate seems too high for NYC due to a number of reasons. I would think 6-8%, maybe 10% are closer to the truth. It would be nice to know more about the test, its sensitivity and specificity and the test population,” he wrote.

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

I'm really not sure about the 20% number for NYC. They tested 1,300 people in NYC, which in my opinion is way too small a sample size to apply to a population of 8.5 million people. They tested people at grocery stores too, and wasn't randomized, which may also skew results, and make it harder to generalize. A doctor from the Serology dept. at Mount Sinai, where they've been doing antibody tests also stated that the number seems too high. I think we need to test a lot more people to really get a more accurate look at how many people have it.

[ctujackbauer]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I think many of these dense, poorer countries will see herd immunity before a vaccine arrives. The economic consequences from social distancing in some cases may be doing more harm than good for these places. It's a pick your poison between widespread starvation and overwhelmed critical cases. Really a bad situation that will get much worse.

I agree with most of that. They shut off public transportation and their train system weeks ago and it still spread all over.

I don't think there's going to be much social distancing in the super-dense areas of India.

I suppose the closest comparison would be Brazil, but India has like 6 or 7 times the people, plus mass slums, plus lack of healthcare. And Brazil is early in the game too.

[Lacit170]

Originally Posted by Underworld54

But it's certainly good news that it's not nearly as deadly as first thought. I bet a bunch of us in this thread has had it without even knowing it. Would anyone be willing to take the antibody test? I'd be interested to know if I had it or not.

definitely, i'll be first in line

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

In 4 weeks we have seen 26+million people put out of work. How long do you think it will take to put them all back to work? A year? 2 years? Longer?

even that is undetermined as many of those are furloughed and would theoretically get their job back once able to. nothing about any of this is black and white

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Life will continue but it won't be the life that everyone was living prior to the pandemic.

Schools (public) have pretty much closed for the rest of the 2020 school year. IMO they will probably be safe to begin again in their August/September openings. So I really don't see too much long lasting damage from the closing of schools 3 or 4 months earlier than normal.

just in time for wave 2 lol... hopefully by that point we have more testing capabilities and infection rate is already high meaning less people will be spreading. so who knows what will happen but we need to prepare for wave 2 scenario

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

And this is what has business owners very concerned about. Not only will they have to deal with social distancing but also extra through cleanings which were not an SOP of their business.

People, just by human nature will be paranoid of coming in contact with others. We have been drumming into them to stay home, stay safe and keep your distance. With no vaccine on the horizon what will have changed people's minds to go out?

knowing most people wont be out, is why many will take the risk

Originally Posted by mar3o

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/healt...rnd/index.html

"The amount of SARS-CoV-2 also diminished rather quickly over time, compared to say, a norovirus or "cruise-ship" intestinal virus, said Williams, who is chief of the division of pediatric infectious diseases at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh."

"In the study the virus was down "a hundred fold on cardboard in eight hours," Williams said. "That means 99.9% of the virus was gone by eight hours, and the same is true on stainless steel and plastic.""

This is something you don't hear much about. The virus can theoretically survive for up to 24 hours on cardboard, for example, but it diminishes greatly by the hour. That's important to remember. It's highly unlikely to catch this virus through opening of boxes or handling groceries.

the problem youre not mentioning though is the delivery person handing the packages. they could leave the virus on the package theoretically. meaning, the 8 hours is irrelevent

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

You got it! That way no one falls "through the cracks." It only takes one you know.

pretty sure he was being sarcastic lol

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

And missing is the contact tracing. Funny how no one mentions that as being important.

because it will never be reliable here in the states. most people are not going to download the app and allow them to openly track you since we all know those procedures will not be dropped once the pandemic is over no matter what they tell us.

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

Seriously. Mods, please????

what are you guys talking about having them remove?

Originally Posted by mar3o

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavir...075414917.html

"Fit and healthy people wearing masks could make them more at risk of infection, says expert"

But he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that there is a risk that fit and healthy people could be increasing their chance of infection by wearing a mask that encourages them to touch their face.

“There’s no research evidence to support wearing masks if you are basically fit and well,” said Prof Marshall.

“Indeed if people wear masks there’s a risk they play around with it, they play with their eyes more and maybe you’re even at a higher risk of picking up an infection.

I've been voicing my concerns about this all along. IMO masks should not be a requirement. The ones most of us are wearing have limited effectiveness anyways, and on top of that many don't wear them correctly (under the nose, taking them off to talk). And it means more fiddling with your face if they don't fit well, causes you to sweat, causes fogging if you wear glasses, etc.).

Masks can help, if you or somebody around you has it. But it can lead to increased risks if you are touching door handles, carts, etc., then fiddling with your mask because it doesn't fit good.

This back-and-forth from various experts is confusing everyone.

as mentioned, the masks are for the user to not spread it, not for the user to not contract it....meaning, assume everyone is asymptomatic

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by BluBonnet

We've just passed 50,000 deaths in the US alone, at this rate we'll have passed the Vietnam War death count within the next 7-10 days.

It's a relief to hear that number of new cases are starting to go down. Just goes to show that people staying at home is finally starting to work. My only fear is that we'll get too excited, reopen the economy too soon and then we'll have another outbreak again.

[Batman1980]

The second and possibly third waves are pretty much inevitable. As inhumane as it sounds, the keys are to minimize the damage because at some point soon the economy needs to start incrementally reopening.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

The second and possibly third waves are pretty much inevitable. As inhumane as it sounds, the keys are to minimize the damage because at some point soon the economy needs to start incrementally reopening.

I'm a little unclear about why this second wave is inevitable, and what will cause it. Is it just because of the transition from summer to winter? Or that they assume mitigation will become too relaxed in order to appease the economy?

[Dubstar]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

India is beginning to ramp. They are, how do I say this delicately, not set up well for this virus.

Wish I could do an Amazon return of China's "gift to the world"

as of today:

"According to the latest figures published by Johns Hopkins University, 2,735,117 cases have been detected worldwide, with 191,962 deaths and 751,501 people now recovered.

In India, there have been 23,502 cases, with 722 deaths. 5,012 people have recovered from the virus."


New York Times reports (as of ten hours ago):
TOTAL CASES
23,077
DEATHS
718

for a country where the population is 1.366 billion that's surprisingly low

[Pondosinatra]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

Antibodies developed from receiving plasma (convalescent plasma) from someone who has recovered from COVID are not permanent. They can last from weeks to months. This is known as passive immunity. It's certainly something that can help those that are high risk, and people on the front lines, even if it's a temporary solution until something like a vaccine comes along.

Antibodies that our own body makes if we get the infection, and recover, should last much longer, if not forever. This is known as active immunity.

I don't buy that though...admittedly I'm not an expert - but we've been told over and over again that the common cold is a form of coronavirus. Yet we get a cold every year - casting doubt on both an effective vaccine and immunity.

I want to know if I have antibodies, because although it might not be permanent at least it gives me peace of mind that if I was to get infected again - assuming a similar exposure level - that I'm not going to end up in the hospital.

[Pondosinatra]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I'm a little unclear about why this second wave is inevitable, and what will cause it. Is it just because of the transition from summer to winter? Or that they assume mitigation will become too relaxed in order to appease the economy?

Probably both.

[ctujackbauer]

Originally Posted by Dubstar

as of today:

"According to the latest figures published by Johns Hopkins University, 2,735,117 cases have been detected worldwide, with 191,962 deaths and 751,501 people now recovered.

In India, there have been 23,502 cases, with 722 deaths. 5,012 people have recovered from the virus."


New York Times reports (as of ten hours ago):
TOTAL CASES
23,077
DEATHS
718

for a country where the population is 1.366 billion that's surprisingly low

It is low for now (which was why I said beginning to ramp). But check the 7-day moving average of new cases in the NYT.

They shut off their entire transportation network, trains, and put their entire country on lockdown on March 25, and it is still spreading all over.

[bruceames]

Still, I can't see why the second wave could be worse. For one thing everyone will be more prepared, and also a lot more people will have immunity. Maybe they think another, more deadly strain will emerge?

[Lacit170]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I'm a little unclear about why this second wave is inevitable, and what will cause it. Is it just because of the transition from summer to winter? Or that they assume mitigation will become too relaxed in order to appease the economy?

Originally Posted by Pondosinatra

Probably both.

combination of both. think of it as the cold, obviously not the same but the thinking is it survives better in cold weather and will come back for the season just like the cold. so, while it will surge again, plus with more people out and about, its inevitable. however, if it mutates, it should be less potent and ICU admissions should be nowhere near what we see today.

so it will come back, but we should be better prepared and less likely to be severely impacted by it, again, for most people.

[Himmel]

So let me get this straight..... We're supposed to drink disinfectants???

[Lacit170]

Originally Posted by Himmel

So let me get this straight..... We're supposed to drink disinfectants???

yes and tide pods. doctor approved

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I'm a little unclear about why this second wave is inevitable, and what will cause it. Is it just because of the transition from summer to winter? Or that they assume mitigation will become too relaxed in order to appease the economy?

Well and this is just my personal opinion. The economy is going to open up again, slowly at first and then a lot. People are already disrespecting the laughable 6 feet. It only takes 1 person in the wrong place at the wrong time to infect a whole bunch of people. People aren't going to be out in droves at first but enough that it's going to spread again. I mean look how much it's spreading even now and that's with almost everyone on shelter in place.

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by Lacit170

yes and tide pods. doctor approved

[Dubstar]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

It is low for now (which was why I said beginning to ramp). But check the 7-day moving average of new cases in the NYT.

They shut off their entire transportation network, trains, and put their entire country on lockdown on March 25, and it is still spreading all over.

as for the top five populated cities/states:

Maharashtra confirmed cases: 6,430 / cured: 840 / deaths: 283
Delhi: 2,376 / 808 / 50
Karnataka: 445 / 145 /17
Telengana: 960/ 197 / 24
Gujarat: 2,624 / 258 /112

obviously these numbers will rise, but it's surprising it's not spreading like wildfire (yet), unless there's a lot of undocumented cases going unreported.

[Dustin44]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

Well and this is just my personal opinion. The economy is going to open up again, slowly at first and then a lot. People are already disrespecting the laughable 6 feet. It only takes 1 person in the wrong place at the wrong time to infect a whole bunch of people. People aren't going to be out in droves at first but enough that it's going to spread again. I mean look how much it's spreading even now and that's with almost everyone on shelter in place.

I agree.

Things will start to open slowly, but then more and more places will eventually open up. People will be more cautious right at first, but then will probably become more relaxed and won't be as careful after a while. So then we could see the virus ramp back up again.

Then we also have Flu Season starting in the fall. So they worry about having the Flu and the Covid-19 spreading at around the same time.