How Much Longer Will There Be Blu-ray Discs? (article mentions format expires 2016?)

[HDTV1080P]

Even with a 4K QUAD HD optical format that possible might launch in 2016+, I still think that Blu-ray 1080P will be the mainstream optical format and the new 4K QUAD HD optical disc format will be more like the Laserdisc format which had around 2 million loyal supporters that wanted the best picture and sound quality.

I disagree with Blu-ray having an expiration date of 2015 or 2016. Even the 4K QUAD optical format would need a minimum of 5 years under ideal comditions to completely replace Blu-ray. I still think Blu-ray will last another 10 years as VUDU and other streaming providers keep eating away at both DVD and Blu-ray optical disc sells.


How Much Longer Will There Be Blu-ray Discs?

Quote
“Julie, I agree with you that the best picture on the market comes from a Blu-ray high-def disc. The Blu-ray picture is not compressed the way it is on cable and satellite, meaning the picture is not squeezed to create room for other channels and services.

However, there's no question that streaming -- watching video over the Internet -- is very convenient. You sacrifice some picture quality but you don't have to order the disc by mail or go to a store to rent or buy it. You just hit a button and your movie appears on your screen.

Consequently, I suspect that the Blu-ray high-def disc has an expiration date, probably in 2015 or 2016. At that point, I think you'll see very few Blu-ray discs released for new movies. Instead, they will be made available nearly exclusively on streaming or Video on Demand.”

[Steedeel]

Utter bullshit in my opinion.

[Pauliesr]

I think it's crap too.

I am not an expert nor do I have the whole world of knowledge but the big-business greed thought process is going to kill them. I mean where does it make sense to keep coming out with new formats so fast that the general public cannot keep up. DVD was great and Blu-ray is awesome but, to an extent, anything beyond that is almost trivial. You have to have such large screens with 4K (and at the moment product is so limited), that it's not really a viable option.

There will be some many formats that people won't now which way is up any more.

[bowlingbilly10]

Bullshit. They say the same thing with DVDs and look they are still here. Blurays are here to stay

[crazyBLUE]

Chill on the language please A simple Bull would be fine I think

We all know Blu-ray won't be going anywhere for A long time!

Thanks

[Pondosinatra]

Originally Posted by HDTV1080P

...
However, there's no question that streaming -- watching video over the Internet -- is very convenient. You sacrifice some picture quality but you don't have to order the disc by mail or go to a store to rent or buy it. You just hit a button and your movie appears on your screen. ...

The only thing you ever truly own is physical media. Convenience be damned!

[RBBrittain]

Originally Posted by HDTV1080P

Consequently, I suspect that the Blu-ray high-def disc has an expiration date, probably in 2015 or 2016.

You seem to have missed the underlined words. This is just another talking head claiming downloads will make BDs obsolete, as they've been saying ever since BD launched.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Utter bull**** in my opinion.

But it is of some comic value though as it will allow me to post a couple classic Youtube videos (once I can find them), for I think I have a pretty good memory for people, places and things.

Meanwhile, as far as the real need for developing 300 GB discs for consumer 4K deliverables, in the days to come people should check out the size of the eyeI0 ( https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...i0#post7935200 )

downloads of 4K movies to Sony’s puck ( https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...me#post7921525 ) and also keep in mind that eye’s advanced compression scheme isn’t as efficient as a well optimized HEVC solution will be.

Gone YouTube searching….I’ll be back.

[Petra_Kalbrain]

Sensationalist journalism made just to get attention. Blu-ray will be around for much longer than 3 more years. Hell, DVD is still around. It has to disappear completely before Blu-ray can even start to have any type of lifespan threatened.

The way I see it? Blu-ray is still growing. It's not growing fast, but more people are progressively adopting it as time goes on, more/bigger HDTVs enter homes, and prices are stabilizing. I can't see them getting rid of Blu-ray until a) sales start to drop dramatically, or b) sales stagnate for several years without any signs of growth. Otherwise, the format is sticking around.

[Pondosinatra]

If it does go away, I hope whatever replaces it doesn't run on #@^%&# Java!!!

It'd be nice if the menu would load in less than 2 minutes...

[bowlingbilly10]

I sure as hell hope that download streaming doesn't take over in the next 5 years. I've tried renting from vudu one time and the quality is crap! It takes fricking forever to load a movie. I don't have a problem with Netflix.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by crazyBLUE

Chill on the language please A simple Bull would be fine I think

We all know Blu-ray won't be going anywhere for A long time!

Thanks

Sorry, I get a bit passionate about my home cinema

[RyanPom]

BS, the new Star Wars movies will ensure BR will be around for quite awhile.

[crazyBLUE]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Sorry, I get a bit passionate about my home cinema

Probably not near as much as me

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by HDTV1080P

How Much Longer Will There Be Blu-ray Discs?

Funny thing about the Audio/Video internet world of forecasting….or, for that matter, technical assertions. There is absolutely no accountability.

Swanni is still making predictions?....after this 2007 *insightful* one -

Swanni's 2008 Predictions: Blu-ray vs. HD DVD - YouTube

Not to belabor the point of him having a difficult time in picking the obvious winner, fact of the matter is the backers of Blu-ray and the backers of HD DVD did NOT negotiate a single format….there was unconditional surrender by the loser. More to the point, it came completely unexpected by high-ranking Toshiba executives who reportedly were on their way to CES 2008 but turned their jet around to go back to Japan when Warner Bros. abruptly announced it would go Blu-ray exclusive.

And a poor lower-level Toshiba spokesperson was then left to do embarrassing damage control because she was compelled “to shift her comments”…..

CES 2008: Toshiba's response to Warner ditching HD-DVD - YouTube

[msb1428]

While I don't mind ultraviolet and I use the codes that come with my blu rays so I can stream on my laptop. I could never possibly view that as a replacement for the physical media. Its easy with music but not movies
I love cover art to much and another thing with vudu you don't really OWN it. you buy the right to ACCESS it. you can't actually download it to your computer. so that's a no go for me. so my question is what happens if vudu no longer exist or they loose the rights to certin movies??? where do my movies go that I paid for??? and also Disney is not participating with vudu so I can't see blu ray going anywhere soon

[DavePS3]

The consumer dictates the market moreso than the manufacturers. Simple fact is, digital downloading has NOT replaced BD as many predicted. 4K will only take off if the consumer wants to change again and personally, I don't. I'm tired of going from VHS to Laserdisc to DVD to Blu-Ray. 4K is like 3D... no one seems to really care except some early adopters since there isn't any source material readily available.

Sure, 3D had other issues like glasses that people didn't want to wear and not enough broadcasting in the format but 4K suffers from the latter issue and while a 3D TV was needed to replace what you had, so is 4K but at 2 to 3 times the price.

In my mind, the reasons why computer sales are down in the last 10 years, is because people got sick of upgrading all the time. It hit critical mass... everyone who wanted a computer, had one. HD... UHD... BD... 4K is suffering the same problem. Just how many times are you to be expected to throw away what you have to upgrade to what the industry comes out with? 4K is impressive on 4K material but the sets don't look that much better on BD. I'm not changing again... I've had enough and if Blu-Ray takes a dive and I'm sure it will eventually, I'm not following in line for the next format.

If they can take my panel and change a board to make it 4K (which is impossible)... if they can give me BD and 4K for the same price as BD (which they wont) then fine but enough is enough. I understand the industry does not want to stagnate, I get it but don't expect high numbers in the new format because I for one... am out.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by crazyBLUE

Probably not near as much as me

[Race Bannon]

We're reaching the upper limit of the TV screen size that most normal rooms and houses can accommodate -- blu-ray resolution exceeds the quality of my eyes at normal household sizes. I think this format ( or at least, resolution) will stick.

What's more feasible is that download and streaming approach true blu-ray comparability on a routine basis, such that disk-based sales tank. But the idea of another, better, denser storage standard being useful anytime soon? Seems unlikely.

[msb1428]

Originally Posted by DavePS3

The consumer dictates the market moreso than the manufacturers. Simple fact is, digital downloading has NOT replaced BD as many predicted. 4K will only take off if the consumer wants to change again and personally, I don't. I'm tired of going from VHS to Laserdisc to DVD to Blu-Ray. 4K is like 3D... no one seems to really care except some early adopters since there isn't any source material readily available.

Sure, 3D had other issues like glasses that people didn't want to wear and not enough broadcasting in the format but 4K suffers from the latter issue and while a 3D TV was needed to replace what you had, so is 4K but at 2 to 3 times the price.

In my mind, the reasons why computer sales are down in the last 10 years, is because people got sick of upgrading all the time. It hit critical mass... everyone who wanted a computer, had one. HD... UHD... BD... 4K is suffering the same problem. Just how many times are you to be expected to throw away what you have to upgrade to what the industry comes out with? 4K is impressive on 4K material but the sets don't look that much better on BD. I'm not changing again... I've had enough and if Blu-Ray takes a dive and I'm sure it will eventually, I'm not following in line for the next format.

If they can take my panel and change a board to make it 4K (which is impossible)... if they can give me BD and 4K for the same price as BD (which they wont) then fine but enough is enough. I understand the industry does not want to stagnate, I get it but don't expect high numbers in the new format because I for one... am out.

+1 I completely agree with every word.
The turnover rate on electronics these days have become a joke!!! not everyone can afford a new format every few years, I mean how stupid is it trying to put out a new format when the last one has not fully taken off. just obsurd