Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[Todd Tomorrow]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Europe is doing well now because they got hit so hard, building up immunity. Why do you think New York and the Eastern seaboard are also doing very well? Is it just a coincidence that none of the hard hit areas anywhere are seeing spikes now? I don't think so.

Other than high risk business such as bars and nightclubs, the reopening are not the main cause of the spikes. It's family gathering and people in high density housing moving about a lot more. Now it's the South and West's turn to get hit, but it will pass like it did in New York, once they build up some natural immunity.

The states with the highest cases per 100,000 are all on the Eastern Seaboard. Between 1,300 and 2,100 cases. Assuming the CDC is correct that actual infections are 10 times higher, that would put herd immunity between 13 and 21 percent in these states. But since those who have had it are the ones most likely to spread it, the effect is greater than that.

The only state really, with surges now, that also had them earlier, is Louisiana. But the outbreaks are mainly in other parts of the state, rather than New Orleans.

There is no country in Europe which is getting close to herd immunity because that would take years to achieve and risk hundreds of thousands of deaths. I live in Germany, we are doing relatively well because the country went into lockdown early and adopted measures like masks and social distancing very thoroughly, which we are still keeping up. Overall the number of people who got infected is far too low to achieve anywhere close to heard immunity. Infection rates in Germany have gone way down due to the measures we adopted. Not even the European countries which got hit early and badly like Italy and Spain are anywhere near achieving a level of immunity of 60%, where we can start to talk about herd immunity.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by LordoftheRings

I use hand soap, regular bar soap ... 20 seconds between fingers.
So far I'm virus-free.

Impossible for me when I’m outside with a guy with special needs. Needs must.

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

C'mon. Don't steal.

Broke ... (Miller time)

[Chaotic]

Non- COVID patients being put in with COVID patients at a hospital

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TXx8g0...ature=youtu.be

So much shady shit going on

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

Don't miss your shining chance to prove your stupidity this weekend, have yourselves a huge 4th of July bash!

This, could be real scary ...

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Impossible for me when I’m outside with a guy with special needs. Needs must.

You know best.
And as it was suggested less than two hours ago, you can make your own safe mix, and rebottle it.

• https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...ostcount=10814

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by LordoftheRings

Bruce, how is herd immunity working in China, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia ...? They are into straight and radical and definitive lockdowns in most Asian countries. In North American culture it simply doesn't work. And South America still don't believe we're living in a pandemic.

• Australia had few cases recently (73), they are keeping a close watch on it. Overall Australia is doing excellent ...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rn-to-lockdown


• New Zealand ... https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...id-19-outbreak

Obviously in the countries with few cases they don't have any herd immunity.

They have other things working in their favor, such as governments that will weld your door shut to keep you from going out, mandatory contact tracing apps, being located on islands or peninsulas where control is much easier, being small, etc.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Todd Tomorrow

There is no country in Europe which is getting close to herd immunity because that would take years to achieve and risk hundreds of thousands of deaths. I live in Germany, we are doing relatively well because the country went into lockdown early and adopted measures like masks and social distancing very thoroughly, which we are still keeping up. Overall the number of people who got infected is far too low to achieve anywhere close to heard immunity. Infection rates in Germany have gone way down due to the measures we adopted. Not even the European countries which got hit early and badly like Italy and Spain are anywhere near achieving a level of immunity of 60%, where we can start to talk about herd immunity.

That's the point. Herd immunity is not 60%, it's much lower than that. Many scientists lately think it's from 15 to 40%. The immunity level raises on a bell curve, not linearly, because the early victims tend to be the biggest spreaders. People don't spread the virus equally.

A couple of new reports speculatively lower the possible herd immunity threshold for the coronavirus to just 10 to 20 percent of the population. This conjecture depends chiefly on assumptions about just how susceptible and connected members of the herd are. In their preprint, a team of European epidemiologists led by the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine mathematical bioscientist Gabriela Gomes explains how this might work.

If highly susceptible herd members become infected and thus immune first, the preprint says, their subsequent interactions with the still-uninfected will not result in additional cases. Basically, the virus stymies itself by disproportionately removing those most useful to it from contributing to its future transmission. In addition, if herd members are very loosely connected and interact with one another rarely, the virus will have a much harder time jumping to its next victims. Sustained social distancing aimed at flattening the curve of coronavirus infections and cases mimics this effect.

https://reason.com/2020/05/15/whats-...9-coronavirus/

[bruceames]

That said, if NYC or the same parts of Italy, Spain or the UK spike like before, than I'll be the first to say I'm wrong. But I tend to agree with these scientists, one of whom is a Nobel prize winner.

[Batman1980]

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

Penton, while I appreciate the help, I wasn't talking about my situation, more towards friends and others affected. This shut it down, then open it up, shut it down - is completely ineffective.

We shut down for 3 months. What good did that do, its spreading like wildfire again.

Feel free to pass on the contact tracing info to your unemployed friends, etc.
b.t.w., after opening, Calif. public health officials have estimated that ½ of all restaurants that they inspected in LA county did not follow critical public health guidance (mask wearing and social distancing by patrons).

I guess some of those very pro-business (be it owners/employee or patrons) can then debate how much that ^ misbehavior contributed to the surge, so one never wins in taking a position on the side of safety.

It’s been frustrating to me that some in and out of social media from day 1 of the pandemic have always looked for the most benign explanation for everything. Hell, that’s the attitude that brought me to this thread in the first place last March - https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...g#post17455961

First when cases starting going up, the media was blamed for overly highlighting the situation or the numbers were claimed wrong in the act of denial, then they said, well they’re going up because of more testing, then the positivity rates were shown to be up and that was ignored, but now that COVID-19 hospitalizations in some hospitals are rising, they’re finally acknowledging there is a problem.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by Waboman

This is the first year I'm not going to Fiji because of Covid 19. Normally I do not go because I'm poor.

I’m skeptical.
I’m thinking the only way you’re ‘poor’ would be because the primary wage earner in the family (your wife) hasn’t doled out your allowance on time, or maybe your family’s trust manager forgot to send you checks on time?????

dang Wabo, in pre corona pandemic times, you’d go out to dine and drink more often than we would, based on your pics

[Pondosinatra]

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

C'mon. Don't steal.

Maybe she stole from Waboman?

[IndyMLVC]

Originally Posted by Pondosinatra

Maybe she stole from Waboman?

She wrote it a week ago.

[veritas]

Shut downs by county seem pretty pointless to me honestly. If for example they find out restaurants are causing the surge in a county and they close the restaurants down but the county 20 miles way is open people will just go one county over. In the long run these very small shutdowns will just spread corona virus. To really have effective quarantines you need to either enforce travel restrictions in and out of areas (pretty impossible in the us) or you need the quarantines to be over large enough sections that its at least the majority of people won't leave the quarantine generally.

[AeroK]

Greg Abbott today issued an Executive Order requiring all Texans to wear a face covering over the nose and mouth in public spaces in counties with 20 or more positive COVID-19 cases, with few exceptions.

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by veritas

Shut downs by county seem pretty pointless to me honestly. If for example they find out restaurants are causing the surge in a county and they close the restaurants down but the county 20 miles way is open people will just go one county over. In the long run these very small shutdowns will just spread corona virus. To really have effective quarantines you need to either enforce travel restrictions in and out of areas (pretty impossible in the us) or you need the quarantines to be over large enough sections that its at least the majority of people won't leave the quarantine generally.

Yup pretty much, for example, El Paso and Las Cruces are close enough that people from each city can cross the state border and spread the disease as much as they want.

[Hayabusa85]

Originally Posted by Pondosinatra

Maybe she stole from Waboman?

Nah that isn't Amy Schumer.

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

C'mon. Don't steal.

Tell that to the person you're referencing. She stole it too.

From June 7th:

https://www.tiktok.com/@disneymom44/...69&source=h5_m

[IndyMLVC]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

Tell that to the person you're referencing. She stole it too.

From June 7th:

https://www.tiktok.com/@disneymom44/...69&source=h5_m

The hunt for the origins of this "joke" would probably be more entertaining than the news.