Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[IndyMLVC]

Originally Posted by BluBonnet

Again??

Let's not get crazy.

New York state reported 918 new coronavirus infections and nine deaths from COVID-19, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Friday.

The 918 figure recorded Thursday represents the first time more than 900 new infections have been reported since June 12, when 916 people tested positive for the virus statewide.

[Pondosinatra]

PSA: Please stop microwaving your books to get rid of coronavirus

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/04/us/do...rnd/index.html

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Europe is doing well now because they got hit so hard, building up immunity. Why do you think New York and the Eastern seaboard are also doing very well? Is it just a coincidence that none of the hard hit areas anywhere are seeing spikes now? I don't think so.

Other than high risk business such as bars and nightclubs, the reopening are not the main cause of the spikes. It's family gathering and people in high density housing moving about a lot more. Now it's the South and West's turn to get hit, but it will pass like it did in New York, once they build up some natural immunity.

The states with the highest cases per 100,000 are all on the Eastern Seaboard. Between 1,300 and 2,100 cases. Assuming the CDC is correct that actual infections are 10 times higher, that would put herd immunity between 13 and 21 percent in these states. But since those who have had it are the ones most likely to spread it, the effect is greater than that.

The only state really, with surges now, that also had them earlier, is Louisiana. But the outbreaks are mainly in other parts of the state, rather than New Orleans.

IMHO just one small mistake and things can go terrible real fast.

But
1) the European country closest to herd imunity (i.e. cases/ population) is Sweden and even it is no where near what would be needed for herd immunity to make a dent

2) the reason most of Europe and other places managed to get things under control is that they took much stronger steps during lock down

For example in Greece if you wanted to leave your home you had to send a text with date/time reason# & location for one of the 8 following reasons

#1 Going to and from work during work hours.
#2 Going to a pharmacy or a scheduled medical appointment.
#3 Going to a store for basic goods, when there is no home delivery.
#4 Going to the bank if an online transaction is not possible.
#5 Going to help out people in need. *
#6 Going to an event such as a wedding, baptism, funeral or such, in accordance with the law.*
#7 Going out to exercise or to walk a pet, in accordance with the law.
#8 Moving back to one’s main residence. *

and have the OK text back on your cell * reasons not allowed the week prior and after Easter


3) here in Canada
https://www.kitchenertoday.com/aroun...salons-2526506

any time a person with Covid-19 comes in close enough contact with healthy people there is a good chance of the healthy people being infected. It is not just bars and restaurants or family gatherings. Obviously a one on one situation done once means only one person can get infected and one to 20 people or one to one done 20 tames mean 20 people can get infected so it make the needle move more, but in then end the risk to the individual healthy person will be the same.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by bruceames

That's the point. Herd immunity is not 60%, it's much lower than that. Many scientists lately think it's from 15 to 40%. The immunity level raises on a bell curve, not linearly, because the early victims tend to be the biggest spreaders. People don't spread the virus equally.



https://reason.com/2020/05/15/whats-...9-coronavirus/

the issue is you are not highlighting the right part

A couple of new reports speculatively lower the possible herd immunity threshold for the coronavirus to just 10 to 20 percent of the population. This conjecture depends chiefly on assumptions about just how susceptible and connected members of the herd are. In their pr

eprint, a team of European epidemiologists led by the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine mathematical bioscientist Gabriela Gomes explains how this might work.

If highly susceptible herd members become infected and thus immune first, the preprint says, their subsequent interactions with the still-uninfected will not result in additional cases. Basically, the virus stymies itself by disproportionately removing those most useful to it from contributing to its future transmission. In addition, if herd members are very loosely connected and interact with one another rarely, the virus will have a much harder time jumping to its next victims. Sustained social distancing aimed at flattening the curve of coronavirus infections and cases mimics this effect.

in other words the only way we can defeat this with a number that might be lower then 40% is if we have a very strict lock down that makes it harder for an infected person to come in contact with healthy people.

You can't use against lockdowns their estimates are only true if there is a lockdown. It is the second condition that is needed a priori to get to those numbers.

[LordoftheRings]

• Canada's population (today): Almost 38 million
• Total COVID-19 confirmed cases: 107,000
• Total departed: Almost 9,000 (8,800)

I found there's not a lot of testing, not enough IMO.

* Today's the 4th ... be careful with the fireworks, to not start forest fires.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

The hunt for the origins of this "joke" would probably be more entertaining than the news.

the worst part is people are not smart enough to make it their own (unless all these poor people want to go to Fiji)

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by dublinbluray108

Or a birthday party.

https://meathlive.net/2020/06/21/cro...headfort-arms/

or pong party

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/01/us/te...rus/index.html

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by LordoftheRings

• Canada's population (today): Almost 38 million
• Total COVID-19 confirmed cases: 107,000
• Total departed: Almost 9,000 (8,800)

I found there's not a lot of testing, not enough IMO.

* Today's the 4th ... be careful with the fireworks, to not start forest fires.

agree

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

Let's not get crazy.

Looking at the recent news, people's recent behavior, and not to mention the 4th of July weekend going on, I would take the 900 news cases lightly. It may seem like a small increase and not a big deal, but this virus spreads like wildfire. And since over 30 states are showing significant increase in cases, they can easily bring the virus into NY. And also people's behavior in NY is really slipping. And assuming we're entering phase 3 on Monday, things can really go to hell real fast.

[Batman1980]

11000 new Florida cases.

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

11000 new Florida cases.

[Show spoiler]

Ok everyone. Please eat yogurt, get plenty of vitamin C, and get plenty of rest. Those are the three key things to have a strong immune system.

Geez, no one has immunity anymore???

[BluBonnet]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

11000 new Florida cases.

And they're still reopening Disney World?

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

I’ve got good friends (husband and wife) who are school teachers....

of which I've always admired their profession and dedication

In the Academy’s quest for in-person teaching and believing it being of paramount importance to everything else, local teachers are not happy (can one blame them?) with the guidance (only 3 ft. social distancing, and flexibility with other things, etc.) as expressed in the American Academy of Pediatrics recent guidance for school re-entry - http://services.aap.org/en/search/

[Penton-Man]

don’t freak yet, but Tony revealing the virus is not doing us any favors in the direction it is mutating
@11:35 - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...th-dr-bauchner

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

likely more than one vaccine as Tony mentions

and later @14:44 with regards to sorting out ^ all the vaccines and their implications

[Chaotic]

[Penton-Man]

Wabo, as I don't want to appear rude or dismissive, see *the other place* regarding explanation to your confusion.

b.t.w., even though it’s only for my wife and myself, I’m barbecuing today

[DukeTogo84]

Originally Posted by BluBonnet

And they're still reopening Disney World?

At this point, I don't think that's going to happen unless they truly don't care about safety.

[dublinbluray108]

Catalonia in Spain is under a partial lockdown affecting 200,000 residents after there was a huge surge in the numbers of Covid-19 cases in the area. The residents have been told by police that they are allowed to leave their homes but not allowed to leave Catalonia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53291281

[Waboman]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

Wabo, as I don't want to appear rude or dismissive, see *the other place* regarding explanation to your confusion.

b.t.w., even though it’s only for my wife and myself, I’m barbecuing today

I did see it and replied. Thanks for the heads up.

I'll be grilling up some ribs. Low and slow. Both the parade and fireworks have been canceled here. They were covid'd. So we'll just be taking it easy, drinking cold cervazas and eating good food with the fam. Speaking of good eating, how 'bout that Joey Chestnut! Have a great Independence Day, amigo.🇺🇸

[Pondosinatra]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

11000 new Florida cases.

Hmmm I'd quarantine with Britney...