Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[MrHT]

All I hope is that normalcy returns at some point, hopefully by summer of next year. When I think of the wonderful summer I had last year... I went to DC, went to the beach, spent the weekend at a nice resort out in NJ, spent a day at Six Flags, went to Boston and then spent a weekend at the Dutchess County Fair! Ah what a beautiful summer is was last year! Little did I know it was the last real summer I was going to have. I’m hoping to have another summer like that again.

Let’s hope 2021 becomes a better year for us...

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by MrHT

All I hope is that normalcy returns at some point, hopefully by summer of next year. When I think of the wonderful summer I had last year... I went to DC, went to the beach, spent the weekend at a nice resort out in NJ, spent a day at Six Flags, went to Boston and then spent a weekend at the Dutchess County Fair! Ah what a beautiful summer is was last year! Little did I know it was the last real summer I was going to have. I’m hoping to have another summer like that again.

Let’s hope 2021 becomes a better year for us...

It won't. Sorry to disappoint you. Even if they develop a vaccine by the first of next year it takes a lot of time to thoroughly test it then you have to get it ready to be administered and then you have 328.2 million people here in the USA. Then you have to wait for results and possibly administer it a second time.

Think summer of 2022 for back to normal

[Member-222782]

People who don't cover their faces in public for whatever reason are jerks but when health workers do it it's reprehensible. There was a woman on the Subway this morning in scrubs and no mask. Does she know something the rest of us don't?

[bruceames]

Here's a fairly long article on the controversial topic of (natural) herd immunity and also the effect that pre-existing T-cell immunity may or may not have on it.

As one leading modeler has said, this concept of "partial" or "effective" herd immunity is being blackballed "out of fear it may cause a relaxation of pandemic vigilance". But it is getting more attention as time goes on and will eventually get mainstream press that is not entirely negative.

The Good (But Not Great) News About T-Cells and Herd Immunity

[Batman1980]

Herd immunity will take a long time so it's not something they want to promote.

[MifuneFan]

This line from the article explains exactly why it wouldn't be talked about in greater detail from the media:

In both cases, the picture remains somewhat uncertain; all research into COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 is very young.

The fact is, something like a lower herd immunity threshold is still theoretical. Places like Spain, and Italy, which some have cited as places that likely wouldn't have another spike because they already somehow achieved herd immunity at a much lower threshold are now experiencing such spikes. The only thing stopping this from happening In NYC as far as I'm concerned is the fact that we haven't opened everything back up, and we're following safety protocols. The moment that stops, I foresee us quickly having another outbreak, just like everywhere else that rolled back their safety measures.

I just find it interesting that some out there want to re-write epidemiology, and are making it almost sound pseudo-scientific now, discussing things like Germans having more immunological "dark matter" that protects them more than the British from the disease. It almost seems like some just want to make a name for themselves, and people are so hopeless and desperate that they'll cling to whatever positive spin these people put out, even if there's not enough to really back it up.

Also, just in general, I've lost faith in projection models. So many people relied on models to predict this thing, and so many of them failed miserably.. So I take any sort of herd immunity model, or any growth model with a grain of salt now.

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

It won't. Sorry to disappoint you. Even if they develop a vaccine by the first of next year it takes a lot of time to thoroughly test it then you have to get it ready to be administered and then you have 328.2 million people here in the USA. Then you have to wait for results and possibly administer it a second time.

Think summer of 2022 for back to normal

Oh geez. Well, let me look on the bright side... two years of not traveling means I can save enough for a REAL vacation in 2022. Let's hope I can take that dream vacation to Disney World then!

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

Herd immunity will take a long time so it's not something they want to promote.

Not promote obviously, but rather just acknowledge the protective effect that partial herd immunity is having on hard hit areas like NYC, the cities in Sweden, Southeast England, and more recently, Miami and Houston.

It will come. I'm not impatient.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

This line from the article explains exactly why it wouldn't be talked about in greater detail from the media:



The fact is, something like a lower herd immunity threshold is still theoretical. Places like Spain, and Italy, which some have cited as places that likely wouldn't have another spike because they already somehow achieved herd immunity at a much lower threshold are now experiencing such spikes. The only thing stopping this from happening In NYC as far as I'm concerned is the fact that we haven't opened everything back up, and we're following safety protocols. The moment that stops, I foresee us quickly having another outbreak, just like everywhere else that rolled back their safety measures.

You think it's possible NYC will have another outbreak like before?

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by Cinema84

People who don't cover their faces in public for whatever reason are jerks but when health workers do it it's reprehensible. There was a woman on the Subway this morning in scrubs and no mask. Does she know something the rest of us don't?

I tend to watch these Youtube channels of people where they post daily videos where they do pranks, challenges, dates, shopping, etc.. They are still posting their daily videos where they go to malls, restaurants, and such and they are not wearing masks! They are acting like we are not in the middle of a pandemic right now. And guess where these videos are taking place?... California, Texas and Florida! Yeah, now I know why cases over there are so high. It's all due to stupidity and it pisses me off!

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

This line from the article explains exactly why it wouldn't be talked about in greater detail from the media:



The fact is, something like a lower herd immunity threshold is still theoretical. Places like Spain, and Italy, which some have cited as places that likely wouldn't have another spike because they already somehow achieved herd immunity at a much lower threshold are now experiencing such spikes. The only thing stopping this from happening In NYC as far as I'm concerned is the fact that we haven't opened everything back up, and we're following safety protocols. The moment that stops, I foresee us quickly having another outbreak, just like everywhere else that rolled back their safety measures.

I just find it interesting that some out there want to re-write epidemiology, and are making it almost sound pseudo-scientific now, discussing things like Germans having more immunological "dark matter" that protects them more than the British from the disease. It almost seems like some just want to make a name for themselves, and people are so hopeless and desperate that they'll cling to whatever positive spin these people put out, even if there's not enough to really back it up.

Yeah we're only 6 months into this so buckle up. The only things we (probably) know for certain are:
Anyone can get it but it mostly only kills those in the 60+ demographic
We need to wash our hands frequently, wear masks and practice social distancing
Shelter-in-place in your home and only leave for essential reasons such as getting necessities, going to work and school
Remind yourself this is a marathon and not a sprint, the 1917 Spanish Flu is a good example of why this is the case.

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by bruceames

You think it's possible NYC will have another outbreak like before?

Yes. Maybe not the amount of deaths, as treatment, and protocols have greatly improved since we had to deal with the worst of it, but I can easily see us having another major outbreak here if safety measures were rolled back. Cuomo would probably put a stop to it very quickly though, so it's unlikely to happen, but I really don't feel like there's any sort of herd immunity or anything in the city that limits the spread right now. It's social behavior, and safety measures that are limiting it, not herd immunity.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

Yes. Maybe not the amount of deaths, as treatment, and protocols have greatly improved since we had to deal with the worst of it, but I can easily see us having another major outbreak here if safety measures were rolled back. Cuomo would probably put a stop to it very quickly though, so it's unlikely to happen, but I really don't feel like there's any sort of herd immunity or anything in the city that limits the spread right now. It's social behavior, and safety measures that are limiting it, not herd immunity.

Ok, just wanted to clarify. You think herd immunity (thus far obtained naturally) has absolutely no protective effect then, if I'm reading correctly. Or at least negligible effect.

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

Yes. Maybe not the amount of deaths, as treatment, and protocols have greatly improved since we had to deal with the worst of it, but I can easily see us having another major outbreak here if safety measures were rolled back. Cuomo would probably put a stop to it very quickly though, so it's unlikely to happen, but I really don't feel like there's any sort of herd immunity or anything in the city that limits the spread right now. It's social behavior, and safety measures that are limiting it, not herd immunity.

Yeah, I'm actually impressed how these past few days have been extremely humid around here and a lot of people are still wearing masks outside. It's amazing how well NYers, in general, are taking this seriously. If only the rest of the U.S. would do the same, we'd be in far better shape.

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Ok, just wanted to clarify. You think herd immunity (thus far obtained naturally) has absolutely no protective effect then, if I'm reading correctly. Or at least negligible effect.

I look at herd immunity as something that an area (like NYC) either has, or doesn't have. It doesn't mean anything to me to say a place has a little herd immunity. Either there is enough immunity created to allow protection of the vulnerable population, or there isn't.

Obviously for every person that got the virus, and recovered, they are hopefully part of the immune population for the foreseeable future, and the more people in this recovered pool, the more protection available to vulnerable populations, but I personally don't feel like the data that has been around for decades that says that threshold is over 50% of a population (anywhere from 60-90%) doesn't apply to COVID now.

I feel like low threshold herd immunity is the easy answer. Like a sleazy car salesman saying "forget about waiting for 60% of the population to get it, I can get you that for just 20%!" I don't see any population getting proper herd immunity until vaccinations happen. I think whatever protocols we have in place now are both meant to offer similar protection as we would have if we had real herd immunity, and also to simply buy us more and more time until a vaccine arrives. We stop doing those things, and that protection goes out the window.

With regards to T-cells, I think they offer some protection I'm sure, but I don't think they give anyone immunity outright. It just has the potential of making it less deadly. But it's hard to argue how much of an impact they really have when nearly 750K people have died from this, surely every one of them having had the common cold at least once in their life. Perhaps it could be double, or triple that amount if our bodies weren't familiar with coronaviruses prior to this, who knows.

[dublinbluray108]

A family of 4 from in Auckland; New Zealand have been diagnosed with Covid-19 from an unknown source.

The city has now been forced into level 3 lockdown restrictions to reduce the spread of the infection.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...-days-12047011

[Batman1980]

Jeez, Auckland it's just 4 people!

[PoLskA]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

Jeez, Auckland it's just 4 people!

the issue is its the first outbreak in 102 days... they were quite proud of having 0 new cases

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

I look at herd immunity as something that an area (like NYC) either has, or doesn't have. It doesn't mean anything to me to say a place has a little herd immunity. Either there is enough immunity created to allow protection of the vulnerable population, or there isn't.

Obviously for every person that got the virus, and recovered, they are hopefully part of the immune population for the foreseeable future, and the more people in this recovered pool, the more protection available to vulnerable populations, but I personally don't feel like the data that has been around for decades that says that threshold is over 50% of a population (anywhere from 60-90%) doesn't apply to COVID now.

I feel like low threshold herd immunity is the easy answer. Like a sleazy car salesman saying "forget about waiting for 60% of the population to get it, I can get you that for just 20%!" I don't see any population getting proper herd immunity until vaccinations happen. I think whatever protocols we have in place now are both meant to offer similar protection as we would have if we had real herd immunity, and also to simply buy us more and more time until a vaccine arrives. We stop doing those things, and that protection goes out the window.

With regards to T-cells, I think they offer some protection I'm sure, but I don't think they give anyone immunity outright. It just has the potential of making it less deadly. But it's hard to argue how much of an impact they really have when nearly 750K people have died from this, surely every one of them having had the common cold at least once in their life. Perhaps it could be double, or triple that amount if our bodies weren't familiar with coronaviruses prior to this, who knows.

There should be another term for it, so I'll just call it "effective herd immunity". Which is the level of local (mainly city or metro-wide) infection necessary to render increasing cases unsustainable under the existing conditions. It's not binary.

Another point is that 20% is largely the most exposed and susceptible people and they account for far more than 20% of the threat. An analogy would be like fighting an opponent and killing the best soldiers first.

It was in March (or February?) that this 60-70% herd immunity threshold was estimated. And it was estimated on very, very limited data. Since then there has been 1000's of times more data to base more accurate estimates. So it's rather naive to cling to an early estimate back at the beginning of a pandemic. Also the classic herd immunity formula 1 - 1/R0 is far too simplistic (ideal for random vaccinations but not real world natural immunity in a diverson population with various degrees of exposure and vulnerability).

I don't believe it's accurate to simply ignore the protective effects of partial (or effective) herd immunity and just give all the credit to lockdowns and people behaving better in some areas than others. Boston, NYC and basically the entire Northeast have had the lowest cases per 100k for months now. I don't think that's a coincidence (although the states north of Mass. weren't hit hard the first time, the states to the south are creating a buffer that protects them from the spread in the rest of the U.S.).

I think preexisting T-cells are responsible for so many asymptomatic cases. As you say, they don't necessary stop infection, just lower the severity or duration. I had a bad cold in December, hopefully that strain is the same one that would offer protection in case I'm exposed at some point.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

Herd immunity will take a long time so it's not something they want to promote.

The herd immunity proposition is a convenient diversion for the-virus-will-eventually-go-away laypersons to dwell on,
when there are more immediate concerns –

Dr. Fauci to Muir: 'Universal wearing of masks' necessary to combat COVID-19 | WNT - YouTube