Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[Pondosinatra]

Originally Posted by LordoftheRings

I would like to know what system of analyses they used to calculate that 98% use of masks in the UK population. Is there something factual (scientific data) to that effect?

Well considering the UK is the most surveilled country on the planet...

[Pondosinatra]

Yay! Another daily record for cases.

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by Pondosinatra

Yay! Another daily record for cases.

[Chaotic]

“Nurses aren’t heroes. That’s their job. If they don’t like it, quit”

People are so caring.

[gates70]

This virus is so weird...my friends wife caught it but with mild symptoms. Her husband that sleeps in the same bed and all, nothing. This is the 2nd case I hear of that's like that with people I know.

[Chaotic]

Originally Posted by gates70

This virus is so weird...my friends wife caught it but with mild symptoms. Her husband that sleeps in the same bed and all, nothing. This is the 2nd case I hear of that's like that with people I know.

My mom had it & I didn't catch it despite having cancer & going through chemo.

[Pondosinatra]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

sar·​casm | \ ˈsär-ˌka-zəm
\
Definition of sarcasm

1 : a sharp and often satirical or ironic utterance designed to cut or give pain

[UniSol GR77]

So well... what kind of virus is this? I mean, symptoms vary from person to person, and it looks and feels strange to say the least.
It's like there are no rules.

[LordoftheRings]

Some stats ... (for November 18, 19 and 20)

• In the last three days there were approximately two million new infected cases worldwide.
• In the last three days there were more than thirty-three thousand new deaths worldwide.
• In the last three days there were approximately six hundred thousand new infected cases in the US.
• In the last three days there were approximately six thousand new deaths in the US.

* Because of the data coming up so fast it'll take few days to adjust those numbers, on the upward. ...As it was adjusted this morning for prior dates (Nov. 17, 18 and 19), on the upward, and substantially enough.

From yesterday ...

20201120_142139.jpg

[Batman1980]

Toronto, Canada's biggest city, is going into lockdown for at least 28 days to limit the spread of Covid-19 https://www.cnn.com/webview/world/li...d30f301440cdc3

Source - Twitter

[Gold Ranger]

So, an old friend of mine has it, officially confirmed today.
I'm a little worried for her as she has underlying medical issues...

[mrtickleuk]

Originally Posted by LordoftheRings

I would like to know what system of analyses they used to calculate that 98% use of masks in the UK population. Is there something factual (scientific data) to that effect?

I'm happy to answer "Yes". As I said, and was very clearly referenced in the graphic, the UK's Office of National Statistics.
It was (and is) a highly-respected statistically robust, scientific, survey.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...onsanddiseases

The dataset used which contains that 98% value is the "Opinions and Lifestyles survey" as shown in the graphic, which is updated and published in full weekly. Yesterday there was a new dataset which is here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...eatbritaindata

You can download the Excel file and refer to Table C8 for the "face coverings" data, and see all the figures in the high 90's including the 98% one. They give the confidence intervals, the sample sizes, weighted counts, and most importantly the exact wording of the Question which was asked. I'm not a statistician, but they are, and they are very serious about what they do because stats are no use unless the processes are robust.

HTH

[Aside: Their own publications which use that dataset include the long-titled (new one yesterday) "Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain: 20 November 2020 Indicators from the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey covering the period 11 to 15 November 2020 to understand the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on people, households and communities in Great Britain." https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...britain/latest

But because they publish the data, others are free to use it and not the ONS' own Publication - as the UK Government did creating that graphic I posted
]

I'm conscious that I have talked about their publications more than their methods, which was your question. I looked for a quick answer to "how are people selected" . My memory tells me that they go to great lengths to have a good properly randomised sample across the UK. I cannot find perfect references, but they are definitely on the website somewhere. There's this:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/surveys/infor...useholdsurveys .

For what it's worth, my own anecdotal observations in my local area shows extremely high compliance of mask-wearing too. But that's anecdotal, and not statistically valid.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

DoD 11/16/2020

really sorry to hear. My deepest condolences.

when my mom's cousin passed away at the end of August my cousin decide to have an online videoconference wake for him. People could not be with him but it was a nice way to gather everyone together for one last farewell.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

But what's the point of a hard lockdown (or even a soft lockdown) if we don't shut off international airline transit?

A valid argument can be made about not wanting the type of idiot that feels comfortable with international travel for fun, but at the end of the day if there is community spread international travel is irrelevant considering everything else is equal.

Let me put it this way

Tom crosses border with Covid-19 goes to the bar sees Joe and Joe Catches it.

Alternative reality

Tom goes to enter a different country, tests positive so not allowed, Dick that tested negative was allowed to enter , catches covid-19 in the location, Dick goes to the bar sees Joe and Joe Catches it.

Alternative reality

Tom and Dick are not allowed to enter the country (what you propose), Joe goes to the bar he sees Harry that has never been outside his neighborhood but has Covid-19 and Joe Catches it from Harry.

The outcome is the same in all these three scenario Joe catches covid-19
because the fundamentals are the same you have two people one with Covide-19 and one without that engage in a dangerous activity together.

Now I went with a bar in my example, but it could be any activity where a person without covid-19 can come in contact with someone that does have it (church, restaurants, shopping, in person meeting.....)

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by chip75

I don't believe that number for a second, you only have to watch a news segment from the streets to see flocks of people walking around without masks. I'd also exclude people that don't know that they breath and expel droplets from their noses from that figure too!

two things

1) 98% sounds high (or 2% sounds low) and that is right when it comes to a grade on an exam or in classes, but the reality is, for example there are over 66M people in the UK 2% is over 1.3M , London is ~9M that is 180K.... you can easily have a small percent an a large flock of people. because 100 people is nothing.

2) don't forget this is a survey. I don't know how it is her but masks are required by law, but there are reasons that people could answer they wear them when they don't actually do.

[MifuneFan]

Yeah, it's a survey. Not much at all can be gleaned from that. Most people are going to say yes, even they don't wear a mask. Plus the question simply asks whether you've worn a mask in the last 7 days. Someone could use a mask the bare minnimum of that, say 5 minutes of that week, and go maskless the rest, and still qualify for a "Yes" answer there.

In other words, that data is mostly useless there, and certainly not something you can use to say 98% of people in the UK are wearing masks.

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

Yeah, it's a survey. Not much at all can be gleaned from that. Most people are going to say yes, even they don't wear a mask. Plus the question simply asks whether you've worn a mask in the last 7 days. Someone could use a mask the bare minnimum of that, say 5 minutes of that week, and go maskless the rest, and still qualify for a "Yes" answer there.

In other words, that data is mostly useless there, and certainly not something you can use to say 98% of people in the UK are wearing masks.

There's also -
Did you wear it properly, pretty sure a disturbing percentage of the population do not.
If you wear disposables, do you switch them frequently enough?
If you wear reusables, do you wash them every time you use them?
Circling back around to the first one because even in the workplace so many people use them incorrectly multiple times in a shift.
Are you wearing gaiters or bandanas, which I'm pretty sure don't actually protect anyone.
Also slightly related, are you still socially distancing as much as possible?
These are the things the people want to know.

[dublinbluray108]

Europe is putting together a detailed vaccine rollout strategy to begin in early 2021. Europe is releasing a total of 6 vaccines so far to rollout to their entire population including Pfizer, Moderna & CureVac. I don't know about the other 3 vaccines in this new rollout plan.

The FDA have also received the application from Pfizer & Moderna today to determine approval for emergency use authorisation in the U.S.

If all goes well; those 2 vaccines before the FDA should get approval in Mid-Dec.

That doesn't take away the fact that Penton-Man had lost his brother in law to Covid-19. My sympathy goes out to your friends & family. May he RIP.

[Member-222782]

Originally Posted by Pondosinatra

Yay! Another daily record for cases.

I don't understand how this works. Every day that passes, the number goes higher and higher - are these actual new cases every day? This means that hundreds of thousands of people are going out and getting tested daily. That sounds like a mobilization. Many people I've spoken with at work have no plans of getting a test and some have never even been tested. I, myself, only got a test just a few weeks ago and I never would've gone for one if it hadn't been because my dad flew in from where he lives to visit me (against my wishes). There's a LOT of people out there who still don't believe the virus is real (viewers of FOX news, mostly) and refuse to wear masks. So if this is a mobilization, municipalities and local governments are doing something right for a change.

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by mrtickleuk

I'm happy to answer "Yes". As I said, and was very clearly referenced in the graphic, the UK's Office of National Statistics.
It was (and is) a highly-respected statistically robust, scientific, survey.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...onsanddiseases

The dataset used which contains that 98% value is the "Opinions and Lifestyles survey" as shown in the graphic, which is updated and published in full weekly. Yesterday there was a new dataset which is here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...eatbritaindata

You can download the Excel file and refer to Table C8 for the "face coverings" data, and see all the figures in the high 90's including the 98% one. They give the confidence intervals, the sample sizes, weighted counts, and most importantly the exact wording of the Question which was asked. I'm not a statistician, but they are, and they are very serious about what they do because stats are no use unless the processes are robust.

HTH

[Aside: Their own publications which use that dataset include the long-titled (new one yesterday) "Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain: 20 November 2020 Indicators from the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey covering the period 11 to 15 November 2020 to understand the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on people, households and communities in Great Britain." https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...britain/latest

But because they publish the data, others are free to use it and not the ONS' own Publication - as the UK Government did creating that graphic I posted
]

I'm conscious that I have talked about their publications more than their methods, which was your question. I looked for a quick answer to "how are people selected" . My memory tells me that they go to great lengths to have a good properly randomised sample across the UK. I cannot find perfect references, but they are definitely on the website somewhere. There's this:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/surveys/infor...useholdsurveys .

For what it's worth, my own anecdotal observations in my local area shows extremely high compliance of mask-wearing too. But that's anecdotal, and not statistically valid.

Thank you for your dedicated research. That 98% was a surprise to me without a doubt.
But that's very good. The only way to slow it down is to keep it up, mask up.
And of course we all pray and hope for a vaccine, because waiting for the year 2025 (roughly) to get back to a normal life is a long time.

* Yesterday some new records high ...

20201121_112617.jpg