Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[IndyMLVC]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Well you have to assume they are obligated to say those things because they don't want you to get false hopes and go around unprotected. After all, there is still not concensus about immunity and besides antibody tests are not 100% reliable.

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...4#post17588924

They specifically told me that there are probably other strains and that I'm definitely not in the clear. They said they still aren't sure that you can't get it again.

They were specific about their concerns. It wasn't just "don't go around unprotected."

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by rdodolak

I'm assuming you're referring to grocery delivery and not take out. Either way, not everyone has delivery services as readily available as you. However, someone still needs to pick and deliver those grocery orders therefore it's not feasible for everyone to just stay at home as you would like. Further, there just aren't enough people to pick and deliver groceries for all people even if they had and wanted delivery service. NYC, for example, has over 8 million people which would then require quite a lot of delivery people.

The virus is still going to spread due to people working and needing to go out for essentials. Those that are asymptomatic will not know that they're spreading it. However, from what I recall seeing is that a majority of the infections are now coming from within the household.

when the general store in a small town of 600 people (where my oldest sister lives) has added home delivery to their mix I can't help my self from thinking that you are over playing the "not everyone has delivery services"

the issue is also not work but contact and an opportunity for the virus to spread and keep on causing deaths. On Monday we got a grocery delivery, the door bell rang, I went down stairs, there were 3 bags in front of the door and no one to be seen. I wiped down with a soapy rag everything that needed fridge and freezer and left the rest in the closet for three days and then washed my hands. There was no contact between me (any of my family members) and the delivery person. There is no chance if we or he had covid-19 for it to spread by me doing my groceries. It does not matter if the delivery person was working and I was working in my home office at that time. On the other hand if someone goes to the store and the person with covid-19 is too stupid to keep his distance there is a very real chance that the other person will get it.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by rdodolak

It wouldn't have been over yet even if people had stayed home.

how come it worked in some places?

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...4#post17588924

They specifically told me that there are probably other strains and that I'm definitely not in the clear. They said they still aren't sure that you can't get it again.

They were specific about their concerns. It wasn't just "don't go around unprotected."

Well that's the point. They really aren't sure. Because of the concerns you mentioned and the fact that the test itself isn't infallible.

[IndyMLVC]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Well that's the point. They really aren't sure. Because of the concerns you mentioned and the fact that the test itself isn't infallible.

Right. So herd immunity isn't 100% guaranteed.

[MifuneFan]

Even disregarding the possibility of future strains that you may not be immune to, herd immunity is an impossibility for the vast majority of countries, states, or cities. You'd have to have upwards of 90% of a given population infected, which would result in significant loss of life, and put an insurmountable strain on the hospital system, which would then carry-over to other parts of society. It's not a reality unless you have a small enough population, and ideally one with fewer high risk groups.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

Even disregarding the possibility of future strains that you may not be immune to, herd immunity is an impossibility for the vast majority of countries, states, or cities. You'd have to have upwards of 90% of a given population infected, which would result in significant loss of life, and put an insurmountable strain on the hospital system, which would then carry-over to other parts of society. It's not a reality unless you have a small enough population, and ideally one with fewer high risk groups.

No, it's actually 60 to 70 percent. The infection rate is estimated at 2.2 (assuming no mitigation). So if say, 60 percent are considered immune (whether through a vaccine or having had it), then infection rate falls to: 2.2 x 40% (the percentage of people not immune) = 1. Once the no-mitigation infection rate drops below 1 and stays there, then the virus eventually has no place to go.

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

There's really no excuse for people avoiding all guidelines as shown in the picture I posted. You are allowed to go out, and get some fresh air/exercise, but when social distancing can't be maintained you are supposed to wear a mask. You're also supposed to stay some distance away from others. None of that is happening in that pic, and that's just a small example. This is only going to get worse in the upcoming months as the weather gets warmer.

A second wave is all but guaranteed at this point, which will of course delay any opening of the economy. It'll also force the city to enforce stricter guidelines and penalties. I could see a situation where the National guard are brought in during Summer months, which is going to really suck, but if it's necessary to keep our hospitals from being overrun again, then so be it.

If people acted smart now, they might be able to have a better time during the Summer but alas there's too many selfish idiots out there, and they'll only have themselves to blame when we're worse off in July/August.

A rude personal follow-up -
To all you lazy old people using a designated exercise trail for slooooooooooooooooooow hikes and bicycling - no. There's a sidewalk for people who aren't really exercising and there's 2 bicycle lanes. MAKE more of an effort to avoid other people instead of just acting like you can do whatever you want.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

Right. So herd immunity isn't 100% guaranteed.

Not 100%, no. But if Dr. Fauci says he'd "bet anything" that people who had it are really protected, then I'd say the odds are pretty good.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

A rude personal follow-up -
To all you lazy old people using a designated exercise trail for slooooooooooooooooooow hikes and bicycling - no. There's a sidewalk for people who aren't really exercising and there's 2 bicycle lanes. MAKE more of an effort to avoid other people instead of just acting like you can do whatever you want.

What is a designated exercise trail? Never heard of any trail that would exclude slow hikers.

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by bruceames

What is a designated exercise trail? Never heard of any trail that would exclude slow hikers.

Well it's a trail meant for people who are exercising but especially now a lot of people are using it for slow hikes and taking up a lot of space on the trail because they've never heard of single file. 0 sympathy if they get run over by a bicyclist or bowled into by a passing runner. They don't have to use the trail, there's perfectly suitable sidewalks where they can enjoy their lack of exercise without breathing possible coronavirus droplets on other people.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

Well it's a trail meant for people who are exercising but especially now a lot of people are using it for slow hikes and taking up a lot of space on the trail because they've never heard of single file. 0 sympathy if they get run over by a bicyclist or bowled into by a passing runner. They don't have to use the trail, there's perfectly suitable sidewalks where they can enjoy their lack of exercise without breathing possible coronavirus droplets on other people.

How wide is the trail?

[Batman1980]

I'll say about 10 feet across and it's about 9 miles long.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

I'll say about 10 feet across and it's about 9 miles long.

So it's a multi-use paved bike path?

[Batman1980]

There's also 2 bike lanes though, it's just that there's a pandemic so you'd think the old folks in particular would make more of an effort to not be in a position to breathe around or touch other people.

[meremortal]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

1)

[Show spoiler]At this point we don't even have a remotely accurate count on deaths, so there is no way to evaluate who is low risk.

2) who/how does one determines low risk? -not covid-19 related- my nephew is 23 years old, always did a lot of sports, played for the University Hockey team, jogged every day, in 2018 he decided to train with a buddy to run the 2019 marathon. His competitive nature meant that he tried a bit too hard the day of the marathon and collapsed on the road. Spent a week in the hospital and the doctors found a slight issue with his heart that caused his collapse. Nothing that would change his day to day life but he would need to make sure he does not put as much strain on his heart as he did with the marathon. I don't know if that qualifies him as high risk, but if it does and this was a year ago he would have been categorized as low risk.

3) in your model you have two categories of people high risk and low risk. And high risk should be quarantined while low risk should be able to go about their normal life. But how do those high risk people live? Here in Quebec the first old age home that had an explosion of Covid-19 started by having a low-risk person visiting their family member visiting their relative right after they came back from spring break. Then a bit later there were two more old age homes in the news this time it came from a part time employee that worked in both places.

My dad is 85 years old, has asthma, heart problems and takes a lot of meds and is currently living with us. does it matter if my GF, the kids or I are "low-risk" go out catch covid-19 and come back home and because we are asymptomatic he catches it?

It absolutely matters and I'd imagine this is a very common situation. Plenty of "younger'" people are in regular contact or live with older family members and relatives. And while the more vulnerable populations may be trying their best to stay put indoors, anyone coming in and out of the house is an added risk. It's something I think about as well and weigh the options. Even though I'm in a category where only like 0.2% of people are dying from COVID-19, I still wear a mask any time I go into a store or pick up food and try my best to stay at least six feet away from others. Death is not the only result and plenty of people are also having complications that could linger after recovery. It's a challenge to find a balance at times, especially at places like Walmart where a lot of folks just don't care one bit and you can feel like you're back at square one. We've been trying to cook at home more and limit shopping to food and essentials. Stuff like movies I just order online. People who think they're '"low risk" should still be following social distancing guidelines and hopefully wearing masks.

[Underworld54]

88 people in a homeless shelter in Nashville tested positive from the virus, every one of them were asymptomatic and none of them were sick, or had symptoms.

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

how come it worked in some places?

Thank you! It’s about time someone here takes my side.

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by bruceames

No, it's actually 60 to 70 percent. The infection rate is estimated at 2.2 (assuming no mitigation). So if say, 60 percent are considered immune (whether through a vaccine or having had it), then infection rate falls to: 2.2 x 40% (the percentage of people not immune) = 1. Once the no-mitigation infection rate drops below 1 and stays there, then the virus eventually has no place to go.

According to various sources, depending on how infectious a virus is, it may take up 90% of the population to get it. Given how infectious COVID-19 is, I'd say it probably would take the maxium amount to reach that.

What is herd immunity?
When most of a population is immune to an infectious disease, this provides indirect protection—or herd immunity (also called herd protection)—to those who are not immune to the disease.

For example, if 80% of a population is immune to a virus, four out of every five people who encounter someone with the disease won’t get sick (and won’t spread the disease any further). In this way, the spread of infectious diseases is kept under control. Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 70% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.

Source: https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/artic...h-covid19.html

Even assuming it's at the low end of that, 70% of a population getting infected would still put a huge strain on the hospitals, and still result in a huge loss of life. Herd immunity by way of infection is just not realistic, or even responsible. This is why there was such a huge backlash when it was proposed for the UK. Through vaccination, a population can get closer to herd immunity, but that also relies on the same percentage of people needing to be vaccinated, which isn't likely to happen either. If a really effective vaccine does come out, I have to imagine more people will try to get that compared to the amount that seek out the flu vaccine, but I still doubt it would reach 70-90%.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

According to various sources, depending on how infectious a virus is, it may take up 90% of the population to get it. Given how infectious COVID-19 is, I'd say it probably would take the maxium amount to reach that.



Even assuming it's at the low end of that, 70% of a population getting infected would still put a huge strain on the hospitals, and still result in a huge loss of life. Herd immunity is a pipe dream.

Well I just used the infectious rate most agreed on for Coronavirus, being around 2.2 (+- 0.3).

It may seem like it now, but it's going to be herd immunity or the virus will be with us forever. Remember, herd immunity can also be achieved with a vaccine. And it's anyone's guess whether a vaccine will occur first (assuming it occurs) before most of the population gets infected.