Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by intoanewlife

Yes 60,000 deaths over a 12 month period. This thing has hit nearly 15,000 in a few weeks and you are not even at its peak yet.

The 0.66 figure for China is because they went into total lockdown pretty quickly and their lockdown was MUCH and still is harsher than ours.

It wouldn't be called "seasonal" if it was over a 12 month period.

The 0.66 figure is for CASE RATE FATALITY, why would lockdown have anything to do with that?

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

There is no quarantine, lock-downs, or shelters in place with the flu. The flu also has a yearly vaccine. Do you honestly think the death rate for COVID-19 could be as low as the flu if there were zero lock-downs, and it was allowed to spread uncontrolled in NYC, Wuhan, and everywhere else in the world? You let that happen, and it becomes clear as day that this would be far deadlier than the flu. The fact that we already surpassed the low end of a yearly flu death rate here in the US in roughly a little over a month, and that's with shutting things down, is enough to prove that.

The combination of a 2 week incubation, and asymptomatic transmission is an absolutely deadly combination that makes this several magnitudes worse than the flu.

Figures are not yearly, they're seasonal. There is nothing clear as day about what ifs which is why you can't put a figure on "far deadlier". First case of COVID-19 was reported in the US on January 20th, 2020 (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191) from a man who returned to the US on January 15th, 2020. Do you really think if they tested everyone who died between Oct ~ March for signs of influenza infection that the death rate wouldn't be "far higher" (am I doing it right) than it is? Not a very even playing field.

Originally Posted by mar3o

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/85354

We've lost 15,774 in the US alone so far, and that's just since this began a couple months ago. Regular flu deaths are for the whole year. There are currently 323,287 confirmed cases still unresolved - they will either recover or die. So far, based on the percentage of deaths we've had, that number has been around 35%-38% of confirmed cases dying. Do the math. 38% of the remaining 323,287 cases could die if that percentage holds steady. That would mean another 122,849 on top of those that have already died. Plus there are still new cases and tons of unconfirmed cases, and the reported deaths are far lower than the actual number.

When have you ever seen bodies being stored outside in refrigerated trucks and tents being set up in Central Park to deal with the regular flu?

No, they're from October. We call it "flu season". Also you ignored how the US is counting COVID-19 deaths, so how can the reported deaths be far lower than the actual number of people who have died due to the effects of COVID-19? That makes no sense whatsoever.

The testing has ramped up allowing more testing of those who aren't severe vs. the initial period when only the most severe were being tested, why do you think that rate will continue in light of this?

Yes, there are TONNES of unconfirmed cases and asymptomatic carriers, it is not remotely absurd to suggest the case rate fatality could be substantially under 1% when all is said and done. Some estimates suggest tens of millions could already have been infected - https://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/606540.html

If that's the case, CRF could be very much in line with seasonal influenza as Dr. Fauci penned in his NEJM article:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively

Therefore people who compare this to the flu, are not morons. (just in case you forgot what my point was)

[intoanewlife]

Oh Dear Lordt...

Apparently the entire world has shut itself down for shit and giggles.

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

The Lancet says the following:

"Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66%"
https://secure.jbs.elsevierhealth.co...sent?code=null

Let's even assume the 0.66% is accurate. You claim this is "very similar to seasonal flu", but it's actually not. The yearly fatality rate of the flu is around 0.1%. Meaning you pretty much showed with the data in your own post that COVD-19 potentially has a fatality rate that is 6.6 times deadlier than the flu.

[LordoftheRings]

20200409_125706.jpg

[IndyMLVC]

Originally Posted by zman73

It's obvious he dislikes them with everything that is going on... like you mention most of us are courteous and give plenty of space. He mentions wanting to punch them a while back... never had one person get mad at me for wanting to remain healthy and keep in shape as I keep my distance

It's obvious you don't live in NYC. They're all over the sidewalks.

[bruceames]

Are total tests in the state figures off quite a bit? They seem really low, especially the 3 states hit the worst (NY, NJ and MI). According to the totals, 40 to 50% of cases test positive. That seems way too high.

Whereas the national average is only 20%, with most states in the teen (such as California with 12% testing positive).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Are total tests in the state figures off quite a bit? They seem really low, especially the 3 states hit the worst (NY, NJ and MI). According to the totals, 40 to 50% of cases test positive. That seems way too high.

Whereas the national average is only 20%, with most states in the teen (such as California with 12% testing positive).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

NY has done nearly 400K tests so far. The results are skewed, at least for NYC (and Long Island), because they're pretty much only testing people either strongly suspected to have it, or are actually hospitalized, so you'll see the rates around 40-50% for nearly every borough, while much lower for the rest of the state.

Look at the numbers here: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov...r=no&%3Atabs=n

I'm not sure how it works in California, or any other state.

[mar3o]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Are total tests in the state figures off quite a bit? They seem really low, especially the 3 states hit the worst (NY, NJ and MI). According to the totals, 40 to 50% of cases test positive. That seems way too high.

Whereas the national average is only 20%, with most states in the teen (such as California with 12% testing positive).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm guessing the figures are all over the place right now. We know many deaths aren't being reported, and we know only a small fraction of the population has been tested. So I'd say it's not surprising that not all the numbers are adding up right. It's a messy situation as everyone seems to be reporting differently.

They're also dropping federal funding for testing, and leaving it up to local and state to cover their own testing expenses now, so that will actually lead to a drop in some testing as some mobile/temp test units will be shutting down due to lack of federal funding.

[Moe Szyslak]

It's unfortunate to know a culture exists who will look out their window, see an empty street that isn't piled with dead bodies, and thereby be unable to comprehend that there are people all over the world dealing with the current pandemic on a truly horrifying and personal level.

[Lee A Stewart]

Boy was I productive today!

Did my laundry
Took a shower
Made Jell-O
Cleaned the kitchen sinks & countertops
Vacuumed

Great! Now I have nothing to do tomorrow!

[chip75]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Boy was I productive today!

Did my laundry
Took a shower
Made Jell-O
Cleaned the kitchen sinks & countertops
Vacuumed

Great! Now I have nothing to do tomorrow!

What kind of vacuum did you use? You seem to have sucked common sense and reason out of this universe.

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Boy was I productive today!

Did my laundry
Took a shower
Made Jell-O
Cleaned the kitchen sinks & countertops
Vacuumed

Great! Now I have nothing to do tomorrow!

LOL! I vacuumed & mopped the floor today while I was working from home. Usually, I'm really doing work at home, but today was a slow day, so I had some time to do some cleaning.

[Moe Szyslak]

4/08/20 deaths on a per-capita basis for various countries:

[Show spoiler]

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by chip75

What kind of vacuum did you use? You seem to have sucked common sense and reason out of this universe.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by MrHT

LOL! I vacuumed & mopped the floor today while I was working from home. Usually, I'm really doing work at home, but today was a slow day, so I had some time to do some cleaning.

Wonderful! Something to do tomorrow! Mop the kitchen and bathroom floors. Bought a new mop, let's see . . . about 6 months ago. Brand new, never used.

Then again, this is Albuquerque, NM which IMO is the dustiest city in the USA. So I can dust. Have to put my dust mask on - dusting makes me sneeze.

Or . . . I can park my fat a$$ on the couch and just watch TV.

We have a winner!

[Lee A Stewart]

Nearly 90% of People Hospitalized for COVID-19 Have Underlying Conditions, Says CDC

In a new study published for the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, researchers found that the majority of those hospitalized due to COVID-19 have preexisting conditions—about 90% of patients, or nearly all, had one or more underlying conditions. The most common, per the CDC, include hypertension (49.7%), obesity (48.3%), chronic lung disease (34.6%), diabetes mellitus (28.3%), and cardiovascular disease (27.8%).

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/hea...cid=spartandhp

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Boy was I productive today!

Did my laundry
Took a shower
Made Jell-O
Cleaned the kitchen sinks & countertops
Vacuumed

Great! Now I have nothing to do tomorrow!

Just repeat everything as if yesterday never happened.

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Nearly 90% of People Hospitalized for COVID-19 Have Underlying Conditions, Says CDC



https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/hea...cid=spartandhp

Keep telling yourself that...
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-...herts-52041709

[Chaotic]

Originally Posted by MrHT

Keep telling yourself that...
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-...herts-52041709

And she's part of that 10% without underlying issues.

[Batman1980]