Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[MifuneFan]

Russia’s Covid death toll could be 70 per cent higher than official figure

Russia’s national death toll from coronavirus could be 70 per cent higher than the government’s official data show, as the Kremlin struggles to curb the spread of Covid-19 despite a seven-week long lockdown.

The Financial Times’ analysis of all-cause mortality data in Moscow, the capital, and St Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city, found 2,073 more deaths in April*relative to the historical average of the previous five years.

Official Covid deaths in the two cities came to just 629 for the same period, leaving 1,444 deaths in excess of normal mortality levels unaccounted for. If added to the reported national figure of 2,009 Covid deaths as of Monday morning, this would mean a 72 per cent increase in Russia’s national death*toll.

Russia has made it illegal to publish or discuss “fake news” about the pandemic in the country, a decision that critics say could be used to muzzle independent media reports that contradict the government’s official statements.

President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly told citizens that the pandemic is “under control”,*despite claims from a doctors’ association linked to opposition activists that the government has covered up the scale of the medical crisis.

The Kremlin has pointed to official data showing higher numbers of tests and lower death tolls than other big countries as signs that it is tackling the pandemic, but the country’s health ministry has admitted that not everyone who dies while infected with Covid-19 will have the virus listed as their cause of death.

The FT found 1,841 more deaths in Moscow in April when compared with the average number for that month over the past five years, according to data released by the city authorities. That is three times the government’s official tally of 600 deaths from coronavirus in the city last month.

Moscow is the epicentre of Russia’s coronavirus pandemic, and accounts for more than half the country’s deaths and total infections. The excess mortality figures show Moscow’s death toll is the highest figure for April since at least 2010.


Data from St Petersburg’s city authorities show 232 excess deaths last month compared with the historical average, against the government’s official coronavirus death toll for the city of just 29 people.

The figure of a 72 per cent undercount is a conservative estimate, as it is based on excess deaths in Moscow and St Petersburg alone. If other Russian cities or regions also record excess deaths above their reported Covid death numbers, the magnitude of the national undercount would increase.

Detailed statistics on all-cause mortality in other regions of the country were not available. National data for April will only be published*in June. Russia’s ministry of health did not respond to a request for comment from the FT.

Experts believe that excess deaths paint a more accurate picture of the pandemic’s true toll because countries’ methodologies for reporting Covid deaths differ widely. David Spiegelhalter, professor of the public understanding of risk at Cambridge university, has described this method as*“the only unbiased comparison you can make between different countries”.

All-cause mortality statistics may include some deaths not directly caused by Covid-19. However, during this period “mortality from numerous conditions such as traffic accidents and occupational industries possibly went down” due to the lockdowns, said*Marketa Pechholdova, assistant professor of demography at the University of Economics, Prague.

According to Russia’s official statistics, the country has 221,344 cases of coronavirus, making it the world’s third-most affected country. It has the world’s second-fastest growing case count after the US and announced a new record daily increase on Monday — its ninth day in a row of more than 10,000 new cases.

Georgiy Frank, the health ministry’s head pathologist, told local radio station Echo Moscow last week that it would not be “correct” if all deaths of people who had tested positive for Covid-19 were listed as being caused by the virus. “Covid is often the cause, but not always,” he said.

[BucketheadPikes]

Originally Posted by Lacit170

“He who has overcome his fears will truly be free.” ― Aristotle

https://theboltnews.com/2017/10/30/fearless/

[Lacit170]

Originally Posted by BucketheadPikes

https://theboltnews.com/2017/10/30/fearless/

While some levels of fear can keep us safe, excessive fear is not something to be celebrated or embraced. For those struggling with anxiety or other forms of mental health, fear can be crippling, and those who suffer from it need help. Yet between the two extremes of fearlessness and crippling fear lives a middle ground, one where we can still go cliff-jumping, but only after checking the drop zone for obstacles. Fear doesn’t need to be negative. It can help us survive dangerous situations and, with a healthy amount of it, we can be prepared for whatever life throws at us.

[Batman1980]

Fear is often seen as a negative thing but like stress it's actually a necessary aspect of life.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, is warning Congress that if the country reopens too soon during the coronavirus pandemic, it will result in “needless suffering and death.”

Fauci is among the health experts testifying to a Senate panel. His testimony comes as President Donald Trump is praising states that are reopening after the prolonged lock-down aimed at controlling the virus’ spread.

Fauci, a member of the coronavirus task force charged with shaping the response to COVID-19, which has killed tens of thousands of people in the U.S., is testifying via video conference after self-quarantining as a White House staffer tested positive for the virus.

With the U.S. economy in free-fall and more than 30 million people unemployed, Trump has been pressuring states to reopen.

Fauci, in a statement to The New York Times, warned that officials should adhere to federal guidelines for a phased reopening, including a “downward trajectory” of positive tests or documented cases of coronavirus over two weeks, robust contact tracing and “sentinel surveillance” testing of asymptomatic people in vulnerable populations, such as nursing homes.

“If we skip over the checkpoints in the guidelines…then we risk the danger of multiple outbreaks throughout the country,” Fauci wrote. “This will not only result in needless suffering and death, but would actually set us back on our quest to return to normal.”

Other senior health officials scheduled to testify before the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committee will also appear via video link after going into self-quarantine, following their exposure to a White House staffer who tested positive. The chairman of the committee, Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, also put himself in quarantine after an aide tested positive. He’ll participate by video, too.

Besides Fauci, of the National Institutes of Health, the other experts include FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn and Dr. Robert Redfield, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, along with Adm. Brett Giroir, the coronavirus “testing czar” at the Department of Health and Human Services.

Even before the gavel drops, the hearing offers two takeaways for the rest of the country, said John Auerbach, president of the nonprofit public health group Trust for America’s Health.

“One thing it tells you is that the virus can have an impact in any workplace setting or any community setting,” said Auerbach. “All businesses will find it very challenging to ensure safety when there are cases.”

Another lesson is that the public officials involved are taking the virus seriously by not appearing in person. “They are following the guidelines that they are recommending to others,” said Auerbach. “There is not a double standard.”

The main questions for the administration experts revolve around the “Three T’s,” or testing, tracing and treatment. Without widespread testing, state and local officials will be basing decisions to reopen businesses and schools on incomplete data with blind spots lurking. Without the ability to do the painstaking work of tracing the contacts of people infected, unwitting transmission will continue. Without effective treatments, hospitals in a given community could be overwhelmed in a COVID-19 rebound. Ultimately, the goal is a vaccine that would offer widespread protection.

The health committee hearing offers a very different setting from the White House coronavirus task force briefings the administration witnesses have all participated in. Senators on the panel are knowledgeable and some have working relationships that go back years with the agencies that the panelists are representing. Most significantly, President Donald Trump will not be controlling the agenda.

Eyeing the November elections, Trump has been eager to restart the economy, urging on protesters who oppose their state governors’ stay-at-home orders and expressing his own confidence that the coronavrius will fade away as summer advances and Americans return to work and other pursuits.

The ranking Democrat on the health panel, Sen. Patty Murray of Washington state, doesn’t think the Trump administration is doing nearly enough to keep the virus under control as the economy reopens.

“President Trump is trying to ignore the facts, and ignore the experts who have been clear we are nowhere close to where we need to be to reopen safely,” she said in a statement. Murray will participate via video, but some senators are expected to attend in person.

Alexander is more nuanced about the nation’s readiness. He suggests there’s enough testing to move to reopen the economy, but worries that there won’t be enough to sustain a return to normality.

“It’s enough to do what we need to do today to reopen,” he said on NBC’s “Meet The Press” on Sunday. “But it’s not enough, for example, when 35,000 kids and faculty show up on the University of Tennessee campus in August.”

With more types of tests on the market from different manufacturers and providers, testing is an area that’s become particularly difficult for lay people to navigate.

Until now there has been only one kind of test to detect active infection. Called a PCR test, it detects the genetic material of the virus, and is still considered the most accurate.

Last weekend the FDA approved the first “antigen” test, which looks for protein traces of the virus instead, much like rapid tests for flu or strep throat. Antigen tests aren’t as accurate as PCR tests but promise to be faster and easier to use.

A third kind of test detects past infection, by spotting antibodies in people’s blood. But it’s not yet clear if having those antibodies means someone is immune from another bout of COVID-19.

Source - KRQE.com

[DetroitSportsFan]

“Brave? Or stupid?"
Roger shrugged. "I've never been quite sure where brave stopped and stupid began, myself.”

― Gerald Morris, The Savage Damsel and the Dwarf

[bruceames]

Why does it have to be termed "reopening"? Nowhere is that being the case. The economy never was completely shut down to begin with. Ask Costco, Amazon or Walmart. And it's not going to be completely reopened either. Not anywhere. It's only going to be done in stages.

When they allow packed stadiums, rock concerts, major marathons, full planes flying internationally, jammed tourists spots and crowded beaches, THAT is when the economy will reopen.

[Pondosinatra]

Vaccine development...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/worl...-develop-test/

[Lacit170]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Why does it have to be termed "reopening"? Nowhere is that being the case. The economy never was completely shut down to begin with. Ask Costco, Amazon or Walmart. And it's not going to be completely reopened either. Not anywhere. It's only going to be done in stages.

When they allow packed stadiums, rock concerts, major marathons, full planes flying internationally, jammed tourists spots and crowded beaches, THAT is when the economy will reopen.

did you delete your other comment or was that purged by moderators? if purged, why?

[jayman3]

Ugh...stupid government website. Makes it a PITA to navigate, provides vaguely descripted instructions, and contradictory requirements.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Lacit170

did you delete your other comment or was that purged by moderators? if purged, why?

No I deleted it. There is a fine line between bravery and stupidity, and I oversimplified it by saying it just depends on knowing the risks and being OK with it. But sometimes being personally OK with the risks is being too selfish (not taking the loved ones enough into account).

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

I think they just need to make it a requirement to walk into any place of business until the numbers drop. I don't agree with the overall efficacy of them but I also think if some people are going to wear them, everyone should wear them. The people who don't wear them in public just look selfish.

I was @ one of my local Wal-Mart yesterday and then Home Depot.
I'd say both places look 85%+ selfish.

But, it's been only four months...wait till Black Friday ...

In 1918-19 if you weren't wearing a mask in San Francisco you got fined.

We are only @ the beginning; we still have meat, eggs, milk, chickens, ... in grocery stores.
I saw steaks, ground beef, pork sausages, ham, baloney, pepperoni and salami pizzas, full cooked chickens, ...etc., @ Wal-Mart yesterday. They were only out of my crackers and hotdog buns. By Christmas 2020 who knows ... after/during the second storm (wave).

Plexiglass seems to be good expanding business, and homemade masks.

Also each world country, city, rural, urban, countryside, ... it's all different.
Everyone got hit more or less ... it all depends of travellers, Medicare centers, age of the population, ... even if you are a smoker or non-smoker.

• https://www.theguardian.pe.ca/opinio...ignore-448257/

With Corona (beer and cigarettes), they just keep studying and releasing new data by the day...and fast. I like beer, I drink beer in hot summer days...only one or two.
I like wine and whiskey (bourbon) better. I love cognac and dry red.

I hate smoke...cigars, cigarettes, weed, vaping...that stuff will kill ya.
I hate Corona even more ... I'm a Lager man (like Brad Pitt). Brad was smoking in Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood. Brad was cool with his dog...and with Bruce too...and with some of the Manson's gang. If Brad could be as stylish with Corona ...

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by LordoftheRings

By Christmas 2020 who knows ... after/during the second storm (wave).

People talk of this second wave like it's going to be a certainty. But there is no consensus among scientists regarding this. Some think that there is going to be spikes as restrictions ease, but not enough to launch a full-blown wave.

There are going to be a lot of controls in place until we get a vaccine. Social distancing, masks, contact tracing and widespread testing. More readiness in terms of healthcare PPE and capacity.

Plus they will be on the alert for this. It's not like the Spanish flu where it just took everyone by surprise and there are no troops this time to transport a newly mutated virus around the world.

You never know, but I don't think a second wave is a slam dunk.

[veritas]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Why does it have to be termed "reopening"? Nowhere is that being the case. The economy never was completely shut down to begin with. Ask Costco, Amazon or Walmart. And it's not going to be completely reopened either. Not anywhere. It's only going to be done in stages.

When they allow packed stadiums, rock concerts, major marathons, full planes flying internationally, jammed tourists spots and crowded beaches, THAT is when the economy will reopen.

I think never shutting down is one of our biggest problems actually. If we do a hard lock down where we close basically everything except hospitals for a couple of weeks we could get R well below one and exponentially shrink the number of cases to a level where we could contact trace. A hard lockdown is also actually enforceable since their isnt a laundry list of reasons for people to be out of their house making enforcement simple.

What I think we should have done is say we are doing a hard lock down in 1 week. The lock down will last 2 weeks and during that time even grocery stores will be closed. After about 2 weeks their should be about 1/10th or less the number of new corona virus cases daily and everything can go back to normal until the number of corona virus cases gets above a certain level in which case we again just shut down for a couple of weeks. With modulation the world can keep spinning and we could have a somewhat normal economy some of the time.

[LordoftheRings]

One thing I noticed with this Coronavirus; the price of 4K Blu-rays don't bulge/budge much from their highs. @ least here in Canada (including Amazon) I can give several examples of $32.99/$34.99 and up to $44.99+ for 4K Steels. We're talking older releases here (2 to 4 months old).

That's another downside of that Coronavirus pandemic; less profits for the Hollywood movie studios so 4K Blu-rays are still demanding a premium. No need to mention some of the titles as I'm sure you noticed too.

And, is it because of this pandemic that War of the Worlds (Paramount/Dreamworks/Spirlberg) ... 2005 with Tom, is restricting the LFE channel from the Atomas soundtrack? That'll be the day.

[Lacit170]

Colorado restaurant ordered shut after viral video

https://www.yahoo.com/news/colorado-...204932662.html

[Chaotic]

That restaurant is only about 20 min from me.

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by Lacit170

Colorado restaurant ordered shut after viral video

https://www.yahoo.com/news/colorado-...204932662.html

At a Red Lobster outside of Pittsburgh, police were called to disperse disgruntled patrons who waited in line for hours after the manager announced that it would not be filling their take-out orders.

And on Cape Cod in Massachusetts, a popular ice cream shop was forced to temporarily close just hours after it reopened because its young staff faced abusive comments from angry customers who disregarded the store’s request to order ahead of time and faced long waits to be served by the overworked counter staff.

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by Pondosinatra

Vaccine development...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/worl...-develop-test/

@ first I thought it was a Casino ...

[veritas]

Originally Posted by bruceames

People talk of this second wave like it's going to be a certainty. But there is no consensus among scientists regarding this. Some think that there is going to be spikes as restrictions ease, but not enough to launch a full-blown wave.

There are going to be a lot of controls in place until we get a vaccine. Social distancing, masks, contact tracing and widespread testing. More readiness in terms of healthcare PPE and capacity.

Plus they will be on the alert for this. It's not like the Spanish flu where it just took everyone by surprise and there are no troops this time to transport a newly mutated virus around the world.

You never know, but I don't think a second wave is a slam dunk.

The odds of a second wave in a decent portion of the country is nearly 100% with our current plan in most of the country. We have states with an R a little greater then 1 loosening restrictions and we have people as a whole doing worse at social distancing the longer the quarantine goes on. When you put the two together you would need a miracle to not get exponential growth. At this point its almost guaranteed we open up to some degree and we see exponential growth again the only real question is how quickly states will re implement shelter in place rules.

The main difference between New York and the bay area was that New York delayed a few weeks longer then the bay area in implementing a shelter in place.

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by veritas

The main difference between New York and the bay area was that New York delayed a few weeks longer then the bay area in implementing a shelter in place.

Weeks? S.F. ordered a shelter in place to start on March 17th. NY order theirs (called "Pause) on March 22nd..

SF: https://www.sfdph.org/dph/alerts/fil...r-in-Place.pdf
NY: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/gov...xecutive-order