Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[Lee A Stewart]

27,000 Coronavirus-Linked Deaths Have Gone Uncounted in U.S., Study Estimates

It will take a long time to truly know the toll of deaths and injuries caused by the ongoing covid-19 pandemic. But a new study out Wednesday provides an early estimate of the excess deaths linked to the viral disease in the United States. It suggests that the country’s official count may have missed up to 27,000 deaths as of late May.

Counting excess deaths—defined as deaths above the baseline seen in previous years during the same time period—from all causes is often considered a more accurate way to measure the fatal impact of a newly emerged and widespread disease, since the official toll can miss people who weren’t diagnosed before they died. Initially, doctors and scientists can have trouble identifying or confirming deaths caused by a new disease, either due to a lack of familiarity with its symptoms, no available tests to confirm a diagnosis, or simply because the disease wasn’t known to exist in that area at the time.

https://gizmodo.com/27-000-coronavir...-in-1844231748

[veritas]

Originally Posted by MrHT

But the mistakes most of these states did was reopen 100% and go back to the way life was. When businesses reopened, they should have enforced social distancing and wearing masks.

Here in NY, people are on line outside waiting to get into stores because there's a capacity limit to enforce social distancing. And almost all businesses require a mask or no entry. This sucks, I know. But it's what's needed to be done to prevent such a wildfire spread!

It should have been a hard and short lock down. When the shutdown was first announced it freaked everyone out a bit and r dropped some but after 2 weeks a lot of people went back to work saying they are essential. If the lock down had been 2 or 3 weeks and the exceptions had been minimal then enforcement would be possible and the r for the duration of the lock down would be like .3 like was seen in other countries that did more effective shutdowns.

[BluBonnet]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

We shut down for 3 months. What good did that do, its spreading like wildfire again.

It worked for pretty much all of Europe.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

Well I don’t like to be pinned down to an exact number because, if not realized, people would be disappointed and more, but I’m thinking in the <1-2% range, e.g. in the 10ths or hopefully 100ths %, certainly less than the infection rate related to hip or knee surgery at many hospitals which the general population accepts that risk in order to have the TKR or THR done.

Seems a high figure though, given the 18-49 year age group has a hospitalization rate between 1-3% and likely much lower if you account for asymptomatic infections. The IFRs for these age groups, based on analysis of the Spanish antibody study, is:

20-29 - 0.015%
30-39 - 0.024%
40-49 - 0.036%

[Batman1980]

“The students deserve a chance to go to school, they want to go to school and their parents want them to go back to school. If we don’t get this right, it basically says to them, you weren’t important enough for us to get this right,” said Gov. Lujan Grisham in a Wednesday press conference.

The governor says she will not hesitate to delay the start of in-person classes in the fall if the numbers do not improve.

Source - KRQE.com

I can see where this is going, no school till 2022.

[jayman3]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

We shut down for 3 months. What good did that do, its spreading like wildfire again.

It worked out immensely in Europe's favor.

Though, again, the individualist behavior of American's really mucked it up for everyone.

Had they simply stayed home and/or worn a damn mask, and politicians not play games using their people, I think the country would be in a better more stabilized position.

But it's not.

And no, this virus isn't going to "miraculously disappear." And no, I doubt we'll see a vaccine by end of 2020 as well. We have another year or two of dealing with it.

[bruceames]

Europe is doing well now because they got hit so hard, building up immunity. Why do you think New York and the Eastern seaboard are also doing very well? Is it just a coincidence that none of the hard hit areas anywhere are seeing spikes now? I don't think so.

Other than high risk business such as bars and nightclubs, the reopening are not the main cause of the spikes. It's family gathering and people in high density housing moving about a lot more. Now it's the South and West's turn to get hit, but it will pass like it did in New York, once they build up some natural immunity.

The states with the highest cases per 100,000 are all on the Eastern Seaboard. Between 1,300 and 2,100 cases. Assuming the CDC is correct that actual infections are 10 times higher, that would put herd immunity between 13 and 21 percent in these states. But since those who have had it are the ones most likely to spread it, the effect is greater than that.

The only state really, with surges now, that also had them earlier, is Louisiana. But the outbreaks are mainly in other parts of the state, rather than New Orleans.

[ctujackbauer]

Originally Posted by MrHT

But the mistakes most of these states did was reopen 100% and go back to the way life was. When businesses reopened, they should have enforced social distancing and wearing masks.

Here in NY, people are on line outside waiting to get into stores because there's a capacity limit to enforce social distancing. And almost all businesses require a mask or no entry. This sucks, I know. But it's what's needed to be done to prevent such a wildfire spread!

I was only referring to California, which enacted a shelter in place order before the state of New York.

[Member-222782]

Sorry if this sounds silly but has anyone done any studies on the possible long-term effects of constantly sanitizing your hands? Lol. All that strong Ethanol/alcohol has to have some kind of adverse effect. I don't know about anyone else but I smear Purell (and other sanitizing products) on my hands about a dozen times a day minimum. I even purchased a huge container of Isopropyl alcohol from Amazon but I'm afraid to use it because it says Industrial grade. Am I overdoing this?

[Batman1980]

https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safet...red-eskbiochem

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Cinema84

Sorry if this sounds silly but has anyone done any studies on the possible long-term effects of constantly sanitizing your hands? Lol. All that strong Ethanol/alcohol has to have some kind of adverse effect. I don't know about anyone else but I smear Purell (and other sanitizing products) on my hands about a dozen times a day minimum. I even purchased a huge container of Isopropyl alcohol from Amazon but I'm afraid to use it because it says Industrial grade. Am I overdoing this?

I work in social care and use it all the time. The only problem so far is cracked skin on my knuckles.

EA5601A3-AE38-4F2E-9D58-683FA6E1D9E6.jpg

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by Cinema84

Sorry if this sounds silly but has anyone done any studies on the possible long-term effects of constantly sanitizing your hands? Lol. All that strong Ethanol/alcohol has to have some kind of adverse effect. I don't know about anyone else but I smear Purell (and other sanitizing products) on my hands about a dozen times a day minimum. I even purchased a huge container of Isopropyl alcohol from Amazon but I'm afraid to use it because it says Industrial grade. Am I overdoing this?

If your rubbing alcohol is above 70% (like 91%) then it should be diluted with purified water to get a 70% ratio.

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

27,000 Coronavirus-Linked Deaths Have Gone Uncounted in U.S., Study Estimates

https://gizmodo.com/27-000-coronavir...-in-1844231748

That's about 20% for the US.
Globally I'd say about 30% (poorer countries have even less accurate counts).
_____

Speaking (peaking) of the US ...
• Don’t Travel Before Checking Harvard’s COVID-19 Hot Spot Map

• Risk-Assessment Map

• How severe is the pandemic where you live

*********

In Canada I am surprised that we don't have more testing.
A friend recently told me that he couldn't get tested after requesting it, in British Columbia. I was very surprised of that; it needs further investigation ...

I also talked with other people and they too agree that we should have more testing in Canada, a lot more, like @ least three times more. I wonder if it's not part of a strategy ...

¤ Brazil and Mexico: Brazil is the hot spot right now, the globe epicenter.
And Mexico already surpassing Spain and pretty soon France (this weekend), and next Italy (sometime next week).

¤ India: I don't know how many of you is following the latest but it is becoming . . . "alarming".

¤ South America: The poor countries of our continent are not spared.

[Waboman]

This is the first year I'm not going to Fiji because of Covid 19. Normally I do not go because I'm poor.

[IndyMLVC]

Originally Posted by Waboman

This is the first year I'm not going to Fiji because of Covid 19. Normally I do not go because I'm poor.

C'mon. Don't steal.

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Europe is doing well now because they got hit so hard, building up immunity. Why do you think New York and the Eastern seaboard are also doing very well? Is it just a coincidence that none of the hard hit areas anywhere are seeing spikes now? I don't think so.

Other than high risk business such as bars and nightclubs, the reopening are not the main cause of the spikes. It's family gathering and people in high density housing moving about a lot more. Now it's the South and West's turn to get hit, but it will pass like it did in New York, once they build up some natural immunity.

The states with the highest cases per 100,000 are all on the Eastern Seaboard. Between 1,300 and 2,100 cases. Assuming the CDC is correct that actual infections are 10 times higher, that would put herd immunity between 13 and 21 percent in these states. But since those who have had it are the ones most likely to spread it, the effect is greater than that.

The only state really, with surges now, that also had them earlier, is Louisiana. But the outbreaks are mainly in other parts of the state, rather than New Orleans.

Bruce, how is herd immunity working in China, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia ...? They are into straight and radical and definitive lockdowns in most Asian countries. In North American culture it simply doesn't work. And South America still don't believe we're living in a pandemic.

• Australia had few cases recently (73), they are keeping a close watch on it. Overall Australia is doing excellent ...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rn-to-lockdown


• New Zealand ... https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...id-19-outbreak

[Batman1980]

Don't miss your shining chance to prove your stupidity this weekend, have yourselves a huge 4th of July bash!

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by Cinema84

Sorry if this sounds silly but has anyone done any studies on the possible long-term effects of constantly sanitizing your hands? Lol. All that strong Ethanol/alcohol has to have some kind of adverse effect. I don't know about anyone else but I smear Purell (and other sanitizing products) on my hands about a dozen times a day minimum. I even purchased a huge container of Isopropyl alcohol from Amazon but I'm afraid to use it because it says Industrial grade. Am I overdoing this?

I use hand soap, regular bar soap ... 20 seconds between fingers.
So far I'm virus-free.

[IndyMLVC]

Originally Posted by LordoftheRings

Bruce, how is herd immunity working in China, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia ...? They are into straight and radical and definitive lockdowns in most Asian countries. In North American culture it simply doesn't work. And South America still don't believe we're living in a pandemic.

Exactly. The Northeast most certainly did *NOT* slow down because of herd immunity.

[Waboman]

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

C'mon. Don't steal.

[Show spoiler]

I don't do the social media. A buddy texted it to me and I thought it was funny.