Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[ronboster]

Originally Posted by Pondosinatra

Tired of seeing friends and family posting pictures of the great vacations they're having on the coast...

So the wife & I decided we're going to actually go somewhere ourselves. A 3hr drive to a national park near the US border. We're going to spend 1, maybe 2, nights there. That'll be our big vacation for the year.

As it's in our own province I shouldn't have to worry about a-holes vandalizing our vehicle because we have out of province plates.

And this isn't as popular a spot as say Banff is - plus it's after a long weekend - not during, so hopefully it won't be as busy.

We'll mask up when we're out and about, and by law all restaurants have to have tables spaced apart and no more than 50% capacity. Plus the place we're going to have dinner at has an outdoor patio.

It'll be nice to get away for a bit. This will be my first time out of the city this year. Sad to think that before Covid hit we'd be on a cruise somewhere off of Iceland right now.

We had put a deposit down for our big 25th Wedding Anniversary vacation, which would have started this upcoming weekend. We have not taken a big vacation in years. Just remind ourselves: Be thankful that everyone is healthy and our work had not been interrupted. There is always next year.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Cinema84

I've heard "second wave" mentioned more than once when journalists talk about the current upwards trends in cases in some States. I wonder if they're using the wrong terminology. The affected States are areas where the virus migrated to after peaking in other parts of the country (New York, particularly) so it's not really a second wave, is it? It's just an increase in cases that may reach a plateau soon just like NY did. Speaking of NY, we're doing OK now but how long will it be before cases spike here as well? Tons of restaurants with Al Fresco sidewalk dining. It's great to see activity again but at what cost?

BTW, has anything been said about the virus attaching itself to facial hair? Lots of dudes out there with goat beards. Ugliest trend to date IMO.

Places hard hit that recover (like New York) won't have a second wave (cases may go up slightly due to reopenings but not to an uncontrollable extent like before) because they've already reached the herd immunity threshold (HIT). The HIT is already starting to occur in hot spots in the south and west, as cases are going down pretty quickly in these places now.

Overall cases down in the U.S. by nearly 10 percent in the last week and the trend will continue throughout this month.

Indoor dining is a problem because mixed households eating at the same table share each other's airspace.

Hair salons should be open, much less risk because both can wear masks and most of the time the hairdresser is behind the customer or to the side.

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Places hard hit that recover (like New York) won't have a second wave (cases may go up slightly due to reopenings but not to an uncontrollable extent like before) because they've already reached the herd immunity threshold (HIT).

I hope you're right, but I have strong doubts about that.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

I hope you're right, but I have strong doubts about that.

HIT is still pretty much taboo to talk about openly (at least in the mainstream news) but there has been a lot of data analysis to support the lower threshold (around 15-20%, with continued social distancing).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....23.20160762v1

[Batman1980]

Still gotta get more people on board with 6+ feet, shelter in place and masks. Until those 3 happen with more regularity you're going to see an up and down pattern with numbers in a lot of states.

[Pondosinatra]

From CNN...

"Although the infection fatality ratio – or, how many people who are infected with Covid-19 die from it – sounds low, it is actually “quite high,” especially when compared with other pandemics, according to officials at the World Health Organization.

There are different ways that mortality can be calculated, and at this point, many groups are looking at the infection fatality ratio – which is the number of deaths among all the people who have been infected, Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead for coronavirus response, said at a press briefing in Geneva on Monday.

“Right now, we don’t know how many people have been infected because there are challenges with surveillance in detecting every single one of the cases, and certainly there are many unrecognized cases,” Van Kerkhove said.

While there are challenges, Van Kerkhove said that some studies have estimated the infection fatality ratio at 0.6%. That “may not sound like a lot, but it is quite high,” she said.

We know that mortality increase with age, and among people with underlying conditions, she said.

“We must do everything that we can to prevent ourselves, and those individuals, from getting infected,” Van Kerkhove said.

Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme, put some perspective on the 0.6% infection mortality rate, saying “that 0.6% is just over 1 in 200 people infected, potentially dying.”

He did say that this was hugely skewed by age, with the risk being much higher in older ages groups.

Ryan compared this number with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, where “it was more like 1 in 10,000 or 1 in 100,000,” he said. “But when you think 1 in 200 versus 1 in 10,000 or 1 in 100,000, you get a sense of just how more deadly this virus is in communities.”

This points to the fact, he said, that everyone should try to avoid getting infected."

[Member-222782]

I'm amazed at how well NYC seems to be doing despite the fact we're a major gateway/entry point to the rest of the world. There's still only a fraction of the city's usual populace out and about but most people are wearing masks and keeping distance. You've got your usual "problem" segments (kids/young adults) hanging out in clusters without protection, the homeless and entitled Trust funders who think they're above reproach but nothing like we've seen on the news with Florida and CA. I hope there's some truth to that Herd Immunity stuff and that we're (NY) mostly out of the woods but most of us are following the rules.

[bruceames]

For children and even young adu you're more likely to die from the flu than this. This virus is waay biased to the elderly and those with preexisting conditions.

According to a recent study, they estimate for older adults the odds of dying by age from covid are:



https://www.nber.org/papers/w27597.pdf


This study estimates that people 55-64 are more likely to die from covid vs. the flu/pneumonia than any other group (which unfortunately happens to be the group I'm in). I guess they are old enough to be at high risk, yet young enough to be exposed more since they are still working.




https://freopp.org/estimating-the-ri...e-630aea3ae5a9

[Batman1980]

Just adds more credibility to my argument (sorry Bruce) that they should let the 20-60 demographic get back to work and continue to SIP those over 60 for now.

There will be some changes in process and programs, but all product availability will remain throughout the transition, and faculty and staff familiar with the “FirstDay” program will be able to continue to use the program moving forward. Barnes & Noble College worked with faculty and staff during the past two years to implement “FirstDay” to deliver an integrated access program. Integrated access is the process of providing course materials directly in Canvas making access easier and more affordable for students. The course materials will be accessible through Canvas, and students will save money by bundling the cost of materials into the course fee structure.

Source - Las Cruces Sun News

Well that's disconcerting, I hate online textbooks lol

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by Cinema84

I hope there's some truth to that Herd Immunity stuff and that we're (NY) mostly out of the woods but most of us are following the rules.

That's my concern. We are largely still following the rules here, and having limits on things that would increase transmission rates. It's impossible to show any kind of herd immunity exists when social behavior can't be ruled out. I think if we were to drop our social distancing measures tomorrow we would soon see huge spikes here, just like every other place in America (and around the world) where that has happened.

[chip75]

Originally Posted by Cinema84

BTW, has anything been said about the virus attaching itself to facial hair? Lots of dudes out there with goat beards. Ugliest trend to date IMO.

Considering that the virus is reportedly strongest (or very strong) in fecal matter and unfortunately a decent percentage of men have fecal matter in their beards it's probably not great!

But it boils down to basic hygiene, people who are diligent won't have issues, people that aren't will be hot spots, but you'd have to have a perfect storm of poor hygiene, not social distancing and improper mask use.

But there isn't going to be any difference between normal bacteria and coronavirus getting attached to facial hair.

[MrHT]

So Florida, Texas and California have all surpassed NY in total cases. So how much longer will it take before those three states reach "herd immunity" like NY??

[Batman1980]

Probably depends on how bad the spread is, I mean at some point Arizona has to calm down a bit, right?

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

That's my concern. We are largely still following the rules here, and having limits on things that would increase transmission rates. It's impossible to show any kind of herd immunity exists when social behavior can't be ruled out. I think if we were to drop our social distancing measures tomorrow we would soon see huge spikes here, just like every other place in America (and around the world) where that has happened.

When I was walking outside over the weekend, I was actually surprised that more & more people were wearing masks. Out of the tons people I've walked by during my walks, I probably only saw a handful of people not wearing masks. And that's a lot because it used to be where every other person wasn't wearing a mask. I think the behavior of NYers are better than other states and that's why our cases aren't skyrocketing anymore.

Honestly, I don't believe herd immunity will exist with this virus unless we come up with a successful vaccine that's effective enough. I've heard many cases on the news where people are becoming re-infected.

[Batman1980]

Almost nobody on the trail I use for outside runs wears masks. I'd say it's far less common to see somebody's face covered up than it is to see someone's naked face. Keep it up guys, I bet you are the first ones to complain about how you can't do all the things you enjoy doing even though you're the ones breaking all the rules.

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by Cinema84

I'm amazed at how well NYC seems to be doing despite the fact we're a major gateway/entry point to the rest of the world. There's still only a fraction of the city's usual populace out and about but most people are wearing masks and keeping distance. You've got your usual "problem" segments (kids/young adults) hanging out in clusters without protection, the homeless and entitled Trust funders who think they're above reproach but nothing like we've seen on the news with Florida and CA. I hope there's some truth to that Herd Immunity stuff and that we're (NY) mostly out of the woods but most of us are following the rules.

No it's because people here in NY are wearing masks. People in Florida are not wearing masks because either they are not taking the virus seriously or because they think they have a right to choose not to.

[Batman1980]

I don't think the virus is going to harm me personally but I still wear a mask because the only time it's a major inconvenience is when I'm running. People who think masks are a major inconvenience to their daily lives need to reassess their priorities.

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

I don't think the virus is going to harm me personally but I still wear a mask because the only time it's a major inconvenience is when I'm running. People who think masks are a major inconvenience to their daily lives need to reassess their priorities.

But here's the thing... would you rather have open businesses with a "no mask no entry" policy or all closed businesses??

I don't know, but I prefer the former. I respect their mask policy because hey, if it keeps the virus down and keeps businesses open, then I'm good with it.

[Batman1980]

I think it's time to re-open almost everything except stuff like large venues that allow 100+ people in. Continue to keep those over 60 in SIP and let everyone else live their lives with reasonable protocols.

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

I think it's time to re-open almost everything except stuff like large venues that allow 100+ people in. Continue to keep those over 60 in SIP and let everyone else live their lives with reasonable protocols.

Yeah, I think the only business that's questionable are gyms. Yeah, you can limit the amount of people allowed inside the gym and social distance, but people are breathing heavily inside. Not to mention that many people are going to have a hard time running on a treadmill with a mask on.

Other than that... museums, indoor dining, malls and theaters should be able to re-open as long as there are social distancing rules and mask enforcement. Not sure why we couldn't reopen those yet here in NYC.