Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[ctujackbauer]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

well, I get your guys' locations mixed up, so apologies if you're not from N.Y, but why not increase your chances to *get ahead of the line* for protection (and better yet, primarily motivated like The Great Owl to contribute something to society) and see if there is a clinical trial site in NYC for Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate - https://www.coronaviruspreventionnetwork.org/

I’m guessing but I’d bet there is.

Penton, that's a link to the Moderna vaccine trial, which during its phase 1 had 3 severe events among trial recipients, and 54% of the recipients after the second injection had systemic adverse events.

That happens when you give a vaccine trial to a company like Moderna, which has never had a drug in production or declared safe by the FDA yet.

[IdeaOfEvil]

I just happened to find this thread, and thought I'd chime in with some info if anyone's interested.

My family and I (I quit years ago, but returned more as a temp to help out right now) all work for UCSF (San Francisco), and we are constantly having weekly meetings with staff and various doctors. Two important meetings we have are Wednesdays Grand Rounds (new medicine practices - basically school for older doctors) and Friday Town Halls (general state of the world meeting with worldwide experts).

At today's meeting, we had a great presentation from a couple of local doctors who had basic information about the virus itself:

-Yale has found that women's immune systems are better at staving off and making it through the virus (with both men and women being equally exposed). Men are more susceptible to catching the virus and have a much tougher time getting through it (having both permanent lasting effects and a higher mortality rate because of it). And men with high sex drives are 3x worse in dealing with the virus than men without.

-U.S. Hospitals want to do racially targeted testing, but are being fought back by local government because of the current protesting climate (mostly in So.Cal). It's been found that latino men are at higher risk for contracting Covid because of the type of work a large portion of them take on (handyman-type work), and there's a debate on whether traditionally Latino neighborhoods should see more attention being paid to them versus all neighborhoods receiving equal attention. Our California governor is thought to be in a deadlock of what to do because So.Cal is protesting (more) violently while Nor.Cal is staying safe with social distancing, and racial targeting might incite further physical protests that will put more people in jeopardy with the virus. Most all of the virus spikes in California are happening in So.Cal.

-California is seeing a large surge in positive cases because of So.Cal and its "passageway" into the state from other southern states (starting from Florida down through the bible belt). But the governor's office is thinking that if So.Cal is called out for being irresponsible, it will just create worse violence and a worse outbreak. Currently Nor.Cal is trying to set up some guidelines to present to So.Cal for them to follow, but Nor.Cal knows the state is going to fail as a whole because our governor will never be willing to isolate the lower half of California and treat them differently. And with Nevada wanting to open up casinos more-so, the travel path of the virus could connect from Florida to California, and then up north to Reno where it will spread out to middle America.

-Right now, at best guess in the current environment, whatever treatment that's made won't be ready for distribution to the entire U.S. populace for at least another 18 months unless major hurdles are dealt with for the U.S. as a whole - complete shutdown of large social gatherings and their buildings (arenas, theaters, hotels, restaurants, etc), a steady stimulus of money to keep people housed/fed/clothed, and guided protesting that keeps everyone separate from each other (policing and protest leadership that will keep large groups and their activities down to a minimum).


Next, I was able to ask a question to a Nobel Laureate speaker today (I'm a tech who was setting up his laptop to conference call, so this was an unofficial question while he wasn't logged on to the rest of the meeting), and I got the chance to flat out ask him, "Realistically, when will the world will be safe to go back to work?" He said, "Safely, two years. Phase-2 clinical trials were rushed to phase-3, and anything that's in phase-3 at the moment are just starting. Each phase takes about a year of trials to be ready for FDA approval. So on top the rushed trials, and then any treatment that's approved that will still need mass production, 2 years is your best bet to be safe." He did say that the best advice he can give is to not be part of the first wave of immunization patients and to wait and see what happens with Germany and Spain with their results first. Results from England and France shouldn't be trusted since they're rushing their trials as well as the U.S. is. So this might even take longer than 2 years depending on even knowing how safe the treatment ends up being (it might treat Covid, but it might give you dementia, etc).

UCSF is preaching that everyone should definitely get a flu shot this year, just in the name of staying as healthy as possible as a population



I am by no means an expert or some insider that's getting top secret information. But I am constantly around experts who are talking with other experts, and I get to overhear these things. So please don't think of me as trying to gain attention or demean anyone else with other information because of this post =)

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

Penton, that's a link to the Moderna vaccine trial, which during its phase 1 had 3 severe events among trial recipients, and 54% of the recipients after the second injection had systemic adverse events.

That happens when you give a vaccine trial to a company like Moderna, which has never had a drug in production or declared safe by the FDA yet.

Yeah and don't forget that not all trial recipients get the vaccine. They give the placebo vaccine to some. So if you are one of the lucky people picked to get that placebo vaccine, you will not have immunity but will end up walking around thinking you do.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

Penton, that's a link to the Moderna vaccine trial, which during its phase 1 had 3 severe events among trial recipients, and 54% of the recipients after the second injection had systemic adverse events.

It’s my understanding that after progressing thru the screening process to determine eligibility, one could then join any of the government sponsored coronavirus vaccine trials and that was the same url of which was offered out during the Grand Rounds webinar a couple minutes or so after the 20 min. timestamp - https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...d#post17965357

[mar3o]

This is why expecting a vaccine immediately is simply not possible:

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/covi...210633981.html

COVID-19 long haulers on months of debilitating symptoms: ‘They don’t know how to make me better’

The study casts doubt on the idea that the COVID-19 is a respiratory illness that lasts only a few weeks, suggesting instead that it may be a vascular disease capable of wreaking havoc on the eyes, skin, heart and brain, long after the sore throat goes away. While some hospitals, such as Mount Sinai in New York, have launched recovery centers for post-COVID care, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has released little data on the longterm prognosis for those who survive.

We don't even know what this is yet, or how it works, or what it does to us. We've never encountered anything like it before.

[Pondosinatra]

"And men with high sex drives are 3x worse in dealing with the virus than men without."

And also....lefties and people with green eyes are 200% more likely to be super spreaders.

Good God...it's painfully obvious 8-ish months in scientists still don't have a friggin clue.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by mar3o

Herd immunity is not a myth. That's literally how vaccines work for the population - enough people are inoculated that the virus can't spread. That can and does happen naturally, without a vaccine, but the problem is, a whole lotta people have to die before we get to that point naturally, so we need a vaccine to get us there quickly, without all the dying
So it's a myth only in the sense that it's not an option to wait for natural herd immunity from this particular virus. Too many people would have to die to get us there.

I fully agree, generally speaking herd immunity is definitely not a myth, that is how we eradicated small pox, polio type 2&3 that is why for the most part polio type 1 and Measles is none existing in developed countries.

But when we come down to specifics (and I think that is how it was meant by the OP) herd immunity can most definitely be a myth.

In order for herd immunity (and by that I mean real herd immunity and not the type claimed by some in this thread every time the numbers go down in a given location) there are many things that need to be right.

1) can there be immunity: does the body create antibodies to fight off the disease (for Covid-19 this is a yes)

2) how long does immunity last: antibody's are extremely expensive to the body and so over time they decrease and so immunity can eventually be lost. (for covid-19 it is extremely short lived and that is bad for herd immunity to be viable)


3) evolution of the pathoge: how fast does it have big evolutionary changes that render antibodies useless (for Covid-19 this should be slow)

4) transmission type: how does someone catch it. Vector-bone transmission (other animals) it is much harder to reach herd immunity, direct transmission (needed physical contact with infected person) tend to be at the other end of the spectrum. (Covid-19 is somewhere in the middle and if it is droplets it is a bit better and if it is airborne it is a bit worst)

5) what is the real rate of transmission. Social distancing and self isolation are excellent ways at decreasing transmission but if they worked this thread would have ended months ago. When the numbers get bad people get scared and they lock themselves up and transmission goes down but when the fear lessens they assume more stuff are OK and the numbers go up again. You can look at what would be needed for herd immunity with the current situation at any time but it would be useless if the situation changes (which it constantly will do). (covid-19 is far from worst in this case but it is still relatively high enough that I would put it as red but that is my none -meduical opinion)


and then there are esoteric conditions

6) effectivity of vaccine: No vaccine will work for everyone, some peoples bodies are better and some are worst at creating antibodies. This will obviously depend on each vaccine itself, and how many shots are given. (for Covid-19 when the powers that be talk about 50%-60% for the various vaccines it won't be anywhere near what is needed to reach herd immunity which would be 80%-90% being immune to have real herd immunity)


7) human nature: to put it simply let's assume a vaccine is 100% effective and 75% of people get it, that would mean that 75% of people are now immune. If it is 66.7% effective (2/3) and 75% get it now 50% are immune.
(There is already a number of people that won't get a vaccine in the best of cases, my guess for covid-19 there will be even more people fearful of getting it)


I coloured in blue all the stuff I think in this situation that help in reaching herd immunity (as far as Covid-19 is concerned), in red all the stuff working against it and in purple stuff that is neutral. Personally I think reaching herd immunity with a vaccine is almost impossible unless there are new facts that change some of the colours above.

[chip75]

The vaccine thing will be interesting ...

-People that are old and vulnerable should just stay indoors until there's a vaccine. The virus doesn't affect healthy people! Let us get on with our lives ...
-The vaccine is available, older people and those that are vulnerable will be prioritized in the United Kingdom.
-We should have the vaccine before those people! We're just at risk as them!

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by mar3o

This is why expecting a vaccine immediately is simply not possible:

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/covi...210633981.html

COVID-19 long haulers on months of debilitating symptoms: ‘They don’t know how to make me better’



We don't even know what this is yet, or how it works, or what it does to us. We've never encountered anything like it before.

I think morons need to stop thinking of it as a simple respiratory disease. It is not. But I don't agree with this either.

autopsies
https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...sies-findings/

and radiography to a lesser extent (since not as much info can be had)


All seem to show the same thing. It is a respiratory disease, but in the lungs it causes blood clots and decreases the oxygen level in the blood. And those two things damage blood vessels, the heart, the brain, the kidneys (and possibly other stuff) and my guess that is what stays for a long time with the long haulers. Lung damage is either long term or permanent depending on extent, heart damage is permanent (you just get used to it if you survive)...

I think what they feel is the damage that was done.

[Pondosinatra]

I'll keep repeating this....Herd Immunity is a myth...

"Based on those snapshots, researchers have estimated that roughly 1 per cent of Canadians were exposed to the virus last spring"

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...d-19-immunity/

[dublinbluray108]

I am watching the World Snooker Championship final from Sheffield on BBC Two at the moment.

There is a limited audience allowed inside The Crucible for this year's final which will end tomorrow night. All of the seats in the Theatre being available for the final are complying with social distancing guidelines like in day 1 of the tournament. Kids are allowed in while supervised with their parents. I think the capacity in there at the moment is maybe around 50% of the seats filled which is a lot of them taken up tbh.

In F1 news; Sergio Perez returned to his Racing Point team for the Spanish GP in Barcelona this weekend after he got a negative test result for Covid-19. He had mentioned some things about the virus in an interview to F1TV since his long awaited return from self-isolation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KC6z7i0neSc

In Ireland; some meat processing plants in the midlands had re-opened again for business yesterday after being cleared to open from the health authorities. Employees of Carrolls meat plant in Tullamore had tested negative after doing a retest for Covid-19. A total of 4 meat plants being closed in counties Kildare, Laois & Offaly had made other non-essential businesses in those regions to close for 2 weeks as part of a localized lockdown in Ireland. There was a meat plant in Timahoe in County Kildare in where one individual had become asymptomatic with spreading Covid to 80 other workers. There was also 30 Covid cases discovered from one dog food processing plant in Naas earlier this week which had to be closed temporarily for deep cleaning.

As a result of those cases in Kildare; it has had the highest number of cases within a 14 day period.

The R number in Ireland also spiked up to 1.8 during this week which has now reduced to 1.2.

And it's been reported tonight that there are another 200 Covid cases reported in Ireland. It makes it the highest single day increase since May 2020.

[Pondosinatra]

Originally Posted by dublinbluray108

[Show spoiler]I am watching the World Snooker Championship final from Sheffield on BBC Two at the moment.

There is a limited audience allowed inside The Crucible for this year's final which will end tomorrow night. All of the seats in the Theatre being available for the final are complying with social distancing guidelines like in day 1 of the tournament. Kids are allowed in while supervised with their parents. I think the capacity in there at the moment is maybe around 50% of the seats filled which is a lot of them taken up tbh.

In F1 news; Sergio Perez returned to his Racing Point team for the Spanish GP in Barcelona this weekend after he got a negative test result for Covid-19. He had mentioned some things about the virus in an interview to F1TV since his long awaited return from self-isolation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KC6z7i0neSc

In Ireland; some meat processing plants in the midlands had re-opened again for business yesterday after being cleared to open from the health authorities. Employees of Carrolls meat plant in Tullamore had tested negative after doing a retest for Covid-19. A total of 4 meat plants were closed in counties Kildare, Laois & Offaly which forced other non-essential businesses in those regions to close for 2 weeks as part of a localized lockdown in Ireland. There was a meat plant in Timahoe in County Kildare in where one individual had become asymptomatic with spreading Covid to 80 other workers. There was also 30 Covid cases discovered in one dog food processing plant from Naas in Kildare earlier this week which had to be closed temporarily for deep cleaning.

As a result of those cases in Kildare; it has had the highest number of cases within a 14 day period.

The R number in Ireland also spiked up to 1.8 during this week which has now reduced to 1.2.

And it's been reported tonight that there are another 200 Covid cases reported in Ireland. It makes it the highest single day increase since May 2020.

I liked Ireland...

There the pubs actually made the food at the pub.

Compared to when we were in London and quickly realized most pubs don't make their own food anymore - they contract out to some company that makes the meals and delivers them. The give away was all the pubs having the exact same menus.

Sad.

[CV19]

Originally Posted by Pondosinatra

Compared to when we were in London and quickly realized most pubs don't make their own food anymore - they contract out to some company that makes the meals and delivers them. The give away was all the pubs having the exact same menus.

The next time, I'd recommend you go to a country pub if you want a nice meal cooked on the premises - and you'll have a great choice too. It's been many years since I last spent any time in London, but I know many overseas visitors have only ever visited the capital without exploring any other parts of the UK.

[oildude]

Originally Posted by CV19

The next time, I'd recommend you go to a country pub if you want a nice meal cooked on the premises - and you'll have a great choice too. It's been many years since I last spent any time in London, but I know many overseas visitors have only ever visited the capital without exploring any other parts of the UK.

A member named CV19 posting in the corona virus thread.

You joined in 2017.

Are you from the future

Please tell us how this all turns out.

[CV19]

Originally Posted by oildude

A member named CV19 posting in the corona virus thread.

You joined in 2017.

Are you from the future

Please tell us how this all turns out.

Well I have to say, I never thought I'd have a virus named after me. I think the medical profession should be paying me royalties for using my initials.

[Aloha from Hawaii 73]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ne...?siteid=yhoof2

Theres a character named "Coronavirus" in 2015 Asterix album , no joke

[ArrestedDevelopment]

Coronavirus is the name of a family of RNA viruses. The name has been around for ages lol.

[Batman1980]

Yeah COVID-19 was the first time I heard of coronavirus though lol.

This is going to be such an odd NMSU term, I doubt anyone knows how it's all going to go.

[ArrestedDevelopment]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

Yeah COVID-19 was the first time I heard of coronavirus though lol.

This is going to be such an odd NMSU term, I doubt anyone knows how it's all going to go.

Yea I guess the name was relatively unknown until this novel strain came into play and gained notoriety.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Pondosinatra

I'll keep repeating this....Herd Immunity is a myth...

If that's the case as you believe, then there won't be even with a vaccine.

Antibodies after infection always decrease rapidly after a few months, but then stabilize to "maintenance" levels. You don't need than many of them to fight off reinfection. The antibody tests are not sensitive enough to detect these low levels of antibodies, probably because they don't want to get too many false positives.

T-cell immunity though is a thing and probably more important for long term immunity. Unlike antibodies, they fight the virus after you get infected, but it keeps the viral load to a low level and it goes away much sooner, with either mild or no symptoms. The person likewise is not very infectious either, which is the most important thing.

It's believed that there is pre-exising T-cell immunity from prior coronaviruses (immunity in the sense that you're like just asymptomatic). Childre's immune systems are constantly fighting off colds, so are more likely to have these T-cells. As much as half the population has them. It explains why so many people have no symptoms and yet others get gravely ill or die.



A lower herd immunity threshold is gaining acceptance by more scientists. It's not March anymore when it was frankly just guesstimated at 60 to 80 percent.

It will get more mainstream press as time goes on, and even today a NYT article acknowledges the possibility.

What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought?