Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[Naiera]

I think the CCP ordered that to troll the world.

[dublinbluray108]

Is their any media outlet reporting how many people are that party in Wuhan?

[Lacit170]

Originally Posted by dublinbluray108

Is their any media outlet reporting how many people are that party in Wuhan?

ive only seen it reported as "thousands".....

[Pondosinatra]

What's with the ****ing ads now in this thread?!?!?

[Pondosinatra]

Originally Posted by Lacit170

ive only seen it reported as "thousands".....

No one parties like Wuhan!

[mar3o]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/models-su...130126904.html

New models suggest COVID-19 herd immunity might be achieved with far fewer people infected

Some infectious disease experts are now examining the "hopeful possibility" that far fewer people have to get infected or immunized to achieve herd immunity, The New York Times reports, citing interviews with more than a dozen scientists.

If their new, complicated statistical models are correct, and communities can reach herd immunity with 50 percent or less of people gaining immunity to COVID-19, "it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought," the Times reports. A clear minority of researchers predict as few as 10 or 20 percent of a population developing antibodies to the disease would be sufficient for herd immunity; Stockholm University mathematician Tom Britton calculated the threshold at 43 percent.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by mar3o

https://www.yahoo.com/news/models-su...130126904.html

New models suggest COVID-19 herd immunity might be achieved with far fewer people infected

Yes I believe it is lower than 60% as well. I've been doing a lot of reading on it, from scientists and modelers (who often are one and the same). All the models are coming in under 50%. A few notes:

Some of the models assume that the threshold will be assisted by continued social distancing (to a modest extent, while reopening can continue fully), while others believe that the lower threshold is possible through pre-existing immunity through prior coronaviruses is all that is needed.

In both cases they factor that the most susceptible and exposed people will get infected first and their subsequently immunity will lower the danger to others at a disproportional rate. So, 20% of these people getting it has the weight of 40 or 50% of people infected at random. The classic herd immunity equation assumes random infection, so is over-simplified.

I belive we need to have some natural immunity involved because a vaccine may only be 50 or 60% effective, so if natural immunity didn't exist for more than a year or two, then true herd immunity, to go back to the old normal, may not be possible. The vulnerable will always have to be protected and people may have always have to wear masks in certain situations as now. Not ideal.

We will need both types of immunity to reach true herd immunity before going back to the old normal, IMO. Either one by itself will not be sufficient unless the vaccine is highly efficient, long lasting, and most everyone takes it. And those prospects appear extremely unlikely.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

https://www.coronaviruspreventionnetwork.org/

follow-up to ^
being proactive –

Professor Participates In COVID-19 Vaccine Trial | Morning Joe | MSNBC - YouTube

[Batman1980]

7 day rolling average in New Mexico has dropped to 137, that's nuts, still remember when we were in the mid-300s in July lol.

[ctujackbauer]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Yes I believe it is lower than 60% as well. I've been doing a lot of reading on it, from scientists and modelers (who often are one and the same). All the models are coming in under 50%. A few notes:

Some of the models assume that the threshold will be assisted by continued social distancing (to a modest extent, while reopening can continue fully), while others believe that the lower threshold is possible through pre-existing immunity through prior coronaviruses is all that is needed.

In both cases they factor that the most susceptible and exposed people will get infected first and their subsequently immunity will lower the danger to others at a disproportional rate. So, 20% of these people getting it has the weight of 40 or 50% of people infected at random. The classic herd immunity equation assumes random infection, so is over-simplified.

I belive we need to have some natural immunity involved because a vaccine may only be 50 or 60% effective, so if natural immunity didn't exist for more than a year or two, then true herd immunity, to go back to the old normal, may not be possible. The vulnerable will always have to be protected and people may have always have to wear masks in certain situations as now. Not ideal.

We will need both types of immunity to reach true herd immunity before going back to the old normal, IMO. Either one by itself will not be sufficient unless the vaccine is highly efficient, long lasting, and most everyone takes it. And those prospects appear extremely unlikely.

How long lasting are you really expecting vaccine-based herd immunity to last though? Are people going to stand taking vaccine booster shots every few weeks?

Natural-based herd immunity for a group of Chinese medical workers lasted days. Four medical workers infected with coronavirus and then declared recovered were reinfected within 5 to 13 days out of quarantine:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2762452

Look at China, they've had 100+ reinfected. There are documented cases in the US too.

We're going to be living with this thing for a long damn time. Don't get me wrong, I want to return "China's gift to the world" too.

[Bigdog]

For all those keeping track, our job sites have just been directed to no longer allow the wearing of gator face coverings as they now say of course as everything with this stupid virus, what's good today is bad tomorrow. They are now saying they increase the risk of contracting the virus. Just figured I would post this up as I know many choose to use gators instead of mask's.

People here who think it's difficult for doctors or nurses to wear these things during a shift, lol try being on a open construction site in 100 degree heat with 90+% humidity wearing these god forsaken things, truly do not know how they manage.

[Aloha from Hawaii 73]

Ric Flair in China : Woooooooo , Han !

[Himmel]

Flushing public urinals can spread COVID-19, study finds

Flushing a urinal causes an “alarming upward flow” of coronavirus-laden particles, a new study has found — prompting health experts to recommend wearing face coverings in public bathrooms.

Researchers in China found that COVID-19 particles from a flushing urinal can shoot up to two feet in the air in less than 6 seconds — potentially infecting the unsuspecting urinal user, according to a report published in Physics of Fluids.

[chip75]

Don't people usually flush their own urine? or have we become a "leave it for the next-guy society"?

[Batman1980]

I would imagine the number of guys who flush the urinal when done in public is 50% at best.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

How long lasting are you really expecting vaccine-based herd immunity to last though? Are people going to stand taking vaccine booster shots every few weeks?

Natural-based herd immunity for a group of Chinese medical workers lasted days. Four medical workers infected with coronavirus and then declared recovered were reinfected within 5 to 13 days out of quarantine:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2762452

Look at China, they've had 100+ reinfected. There are documented cases in the US too.

We're going to be living with this thing for a long damn time. Don't get me wrong, I want to return "China's gift to the world" too.

Longer than a few weeks, that's for sure. Reinfection is quite rare and there still has not been any proven cases of it, just alleged cases which more likely is the first case where the virus hasn't gone away completely.

And when reinfection does occur, it's more likely to be less severe because the body will still have memory T-cells which will fight the virus and keep the load from multiplying to a serious extent. Which is also convenient because they'll be less infectious.

But if it does come down to worse case where there is no immunity and vaccines are no more effective than those for the flu (or worse), then obviously we'll have to just live with it like we do the flu. Not realistic to expect people to wear masks for the rest of their lives, for a virus that's barely more deadly than the flu (3x more at worse, and less deadly for people under 50).

However from what I've been reading from scientists, the virus is very stable and immunity is relatively long lasting (ie, a few years or more). I guess we'll see.

[ronboster]

Originally Posted by Bigdog

For all those keeping track, our job sites have just been directed to no longer allow the wearing of gator face coverings as they now say of course as everything with this stupid virus, what's good today is bad tomorrow. They are now saying they increase the risk of contracting the virus. Just figured I would post this up as I know many choose to use gators instead of mask's.

People here who think it's difficult for doctors or nurses to wear these things during a shift, lol try being on a open construction site in 100 degree heat with 90+% humidity wearing these god forsaken things, truly do not know how they manage.

I'm sure they read the "headlines" but a deeper dive and explanation showed the Duke test wasn't properly conducted

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/w...sultPosition=1

Duke has walked back the results.

Depending on the circumstances, I've been using a variety of mask products:

Gaiter when I'm going to come into contact with only a few ppl and not directly

I used a specific mask from Buff (with filter) when I'm working out inside the gym

https://buffusa.com/shop-buff/filter-mask.html

I haven't found any N95 masks, but bought some KN95 masks when I'm visiting my mother in-law (social distanced monitored visit by the assisted living center.

https://www.rollingstone.com/product...masks-1044184/

[bruceames]

Yeah I read that study wasn't well done and another, more well funded study was done that showed the gators were just as effective as the cloth masks.

Unfortunately the Yale study went viral and it's affecting policy in some places.

[Batman1980]

Gaiters could actually be worse, luckily I only have the 1 and will keep it in the drawer until a more definitive answer is given lol.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

Gaiters could actually be worse, luckily I only have the 1 and will keep it in the drawer until a more definitive answer is given lol.

You do that. Can't be too safe you know.