Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[Monterey Jack]

Originally Posted by MrHT

Not sure why people need to waste money panic buying paper towel. I have plenty of washable towels in my closet. I just wipe my hands there and throw them in the washing machine, and then re-use them. Paper towel is a waste of money.

Paper towels and napkins are good for wiping your mouth/hands after you eat, and cleaning up spills that would stain a cloth towel. Otherwise, invest in a nice set of cloth towels, and have enough so you can cycle through them and still have a few left over before you have to do a fresh load of laundry.

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by Monterey Jack

Paper towels and napkins are good for wiping your mouth/hands after you eat, and cleaning up spills that would stain a cloth towel. Otherwise, invest in a nice set of cloth towels, and have enough so you can cycle through them and still have a few left over before you have to do a fresh load of laundry.

I don't know, but the first thing I'd panic about is food. Paper Towels and napkins are going to be the least of my worries if I don't have any food. So stocking up your fridge and freezer with plenty of food with be the main thing people should be panic buying. We can survive without napkins and paper towels, but food is essential for survival.

[Monterey Jack]

Originally Posted by MrHT

I don't know, but the first thing I'd panic about is food. Paper Towels and napkins are going to be the least of my worries if I don't have any food. So stocking up your fridge and freezer with plenty of food with be the main thing people should be panic buying. We can survive without napkins and paper towels, but food is essential for survival.

The basic necessities when it comes to sustenance will always be available. Even during the biggest panic buying early on in the Covid cycle, there were only sporadic shortages that ironed themselves out within a month or so, and nothing that was absolutely essential. It's wild that canned goods were readily available, when T.P. and hand sanitizer were selling for $200 a pack on eBay six months ago.

[Member-222782]

Are people really expecting a repeat of the early days of the pandemic with all the panic buying and whatnot? That would mean that society in general has NOT learned any lessons and are just doomed to repeating mistakes. Even if there is another catastrophic outbreak (probably unlikely if we stick to social distancing measures) what are the odds that there will be more PPE and ventilator shortages in hospitals, food and supply shortages in supermarkets, hand-sanitizer/mask shortages online and in stores? If supply shortages are allowed to occur AGAIN, then that would mean there's a serious breakdown somewhere along the supply chain that would seem almost sinister in nature IMO.

[moviemaker6]

Originally Posted by dublinbluray108

I watched a news report about the European Rugby match between Toulouse & Ulster this evening on BBC Newsline.

There was a big enough crowd allowed in to watch the match today in at Toulouse's home stadium in France. The stadium was not at full capacity, with every seat filled, it was partially full with everyone wearing their face coverings around the stadium. I can't tell you what percentage of the crowds that were allowed in at Toulouse today. But I thought the problem with this match was the crowds that turned up today.

There was no social distancing among them while they at their seats who were cheering on the teams when they scored their tries. A lot of the crowds were kept in pods or clusters in the stadium while placed at their seats. I would have thought that, with the recently sharp increases in Covid cases being recorded in France over the past few weeks, that no spectators were allowed into Stadia across France.

Can someone shed any light on this? TIA.

A lot of european cities are experimenting with the spread of Covid. In Germany they had some concerts. Always accompanied with a university study to see how Covid spreads and how many people you can bring together without risking too much. That's probably the same thing they did with the match you saw.

[Penton-Man]

taking a moment to reflect on a 200,000 numerical milestone –

Nationwide COVID-19 cases on the rise as second wave emerges - YouTube

putting the number in perspective –

Putting 200,000 COVID-19 Deaths In Perspective | NBC News NOW - YouTube

and remembering some of those we’ve lost in their own words – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0xf3kOsXCg#t=1m48s

meanwhile, from basic R&D - https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_relea...-spa090920.php
to clinical trials – https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news...ments-covid-19

the mission by the dedicated to preserve health and save lives continues daily

[mar3o]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I don't know how effective the vaccine will be, but if they say that you'll have to wear a mask and social distance even after getting vaccinated, then that's just going to give more ammo to the anti-vaxxers.

We will need to wear masks until an adequate number of people have received the vaccination to help us achieve an acceptable level of herd immunity, to the point where the virus finds it harder and harder to spread. But it will take months - most of the year - to get everyone vaccinated. And tons of people won't do it either. So masks will still be needed until we get this under control with the help of the vaccine.

[mar3o]

Originally Posted by bruceames

A mask more effective than a vaccine per the CDC? I know that masks are effective and I've supported them well before the CDC did, but that doesn't show much confidence in vaccines if they really said that.

Originally Posted by ltb2.0

A mask more effective than a vaccine?

They are saying a vaccine may only be 60-70% effective. They aren't sure yet. An article last week quoted somebody from one of the major drug companies who is working on one of the more promising vaccines, and they said they expect it to be at least 60% effective, and hopefully a good bit more.

So say it ends up offering around 70% protection. That means if you're exposed to it, the virus only has a 30% chance of infecting you. That's still not so great for you, but 70% is way better than 0%. The odds are you won't get infected if exposed if it offers 70% effectiveness. But obviously many still will with those odds. That's where herd immunity comes into play. The more people that are 70% protected, the harder and harder it is for the virus to spread from person to person. So you may still have a 3 out of 10 chance of getting infected even if you get the vaccine, but as more people also get 70% protection, your protection increases through herd immunity.

So while 70% may not sound so effective, it may be enough to get us to herd immunity. Because the only other way is through natural herd immunity, and that would mean way too many deaths.

Also, remember that by the time we're offered the vaccine, tens of thousands of heath care professionals around the world will have already received it. It's not like you're going to see it immediately offered through your local drug store or Wal-Mart. They already said early on, due to limited quantities in the beginning, it will only be offered to health professionals due to their higher risk of getting infected due to their line of work. So by the time there are tens of millions of doses available and we have our chance to get it, we should have a good idea of how many people have gotten side effects.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by mar3o

So while 70% may not sound so effective, it may be enough to get us to herd immunity.

That’s the hope, but some are expressing caution as questions remain -

“….However, the impact of these COVID-19 vaccines on infection and thus transmission is not being assessed. Even if vaccines were able to confer protection from disease, they might not reduce transmission similarly. Challenge studies in vaccinated primates showed reductions in pathology, symptoms, and viral load in the lower respiratory tract, but failed to elicit sterilising immunity in the upper airways. Sterilising immunity in the upper airways has been claimed for one vaccine, but peer-reviewed publication of these data are awaited. There have been reports of virologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 re-infection of previously infected individuals, but the extent of such re-infection is unclear. Whether re-infection is associated with secondary spread is unknown….”

“These observations suggest that we cannot assume COVID-19 vaccines, even if shown to be effective in reducing severity of disease, will reduce virus transmission to a comparable degree. The notion that COVID-19-vaccine-induced population immunity will allow a return to pre-COVID-19 “normalcy” might be based on illusory assumptions.” (bolding mine)

“Crucially, it will be important to communicate to policy makers and the general public that first-generation vaccines are only one tool in the overall public health response to COVID-19 and unlikely to be the ultimate solution that many expect.”

^ today from The Lancet - https://secure.jbs.elsevierhealth.co...sent?code=null

[Penton-Man]

Now, if accurate, reassuring news is forthcoming considering the bar is set low for Emergency Use Authorization by the FDA - https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-infor...thorities#euas

And can be unscrupulously taken advantage of as we’ve already seen in the case of the issuance of an EUA for hydroxychloroquine -

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

the likely pressured FDA’s emergency use authorization for hydroxychloroquine, which based on the data, shouldn’t have been issued in the first place - https://abc7news.com/hydroxychloroqu...mp-19/6249222/

Today the Washington Post is reporting that the FDA is expected to spell out a tough, new standard for an emergency authorization of a coronavirus vaccine as soon as this week in so much as they will require data for an EUA that is close to that required for full approval of a vaccine because a vaccine is given to healthy people, not those who are ill. (bolding mine).

After perusing the protocol for the Phase III trial for Pfizer –https://assets.documentcloud.org/doc...l-Protocol.pdf

it is a bit concerning given “Notably, this style of monitoring is more aggressive in terms of stopping early” https://github.com/benkeser/pfizerbounds

meaning, by its protocol, Pfizer believes it could stop the clinical trial before the trial is completed and essentially apply for Emergency Use Authorization before a full data set is obtained and the github author is saying that bar is set low as compared to, for instance, Moderna’s protocol.

[Underworld54]

Well, isn't this interesting. 56% of our reported deaths each day are from 3 to 20 weeks ago. This includes the low-day reports on the weekend. So weekdays are even worse.

Average lag from case to death report grew from 19 days back in Apr - Jun, to 45 days now.

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by Monterey Jack

The basic necessities when it comes to sustenance will always be available. Even during the biggest panic buying early on in the Covid cycle, there were only sporadic shortages that ironed themselves out within a month or so, and nothing that was absolutely essential. It's wild that canned goods were readily available, when T.P. and hand sanitizer were selling for $200 a pack on eBay six months ago.

The thing is, it's a chain reaction. A few people panic and buy all the toilet paper at the stores. Then other people who actually need more toilet paper come into the store and see it all gone. Then this sets off an alarm telling people that toilet paper is a rare find. And when something becomes a rare find, it becomes valuable like gold to people's eyes. And then the minute the store stocks up on more, people snag it all immediately because they see that it's so hard to find.

[Deadend45]

Originally Posted by MrHT

I don't know, but the first thing I'd panic about is food. Paper Towels and napkins are going to be the least of my worries if I don't have any food. So stocking up your fridge and freezer with plenty of food with be the main thing people should be panic buying. We can survive without napkins and paper towels, but food is essential for survival.

You are thinking rationally, the early panic hording was fueled by irrational rumors of a paper storage. Dont expect future panic buying to be anymore rational.

[Deadend45]

“Extreme lockdowns work, no question about it,” said Timothy Sly, an epidemiologist with Ryerson University’s school of public health. “This is what China did, what Melbourne did, and it worked. Partial lockdowns just prolong the agony.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/7347955/a...ckdown-canada/

Eventually most medical experts will acknowledge a country cannot mask its way out of this. Absent a vaccine it can only be defeated the old fashion way, hardcore social distancing and "herd immunity" is a myth when it comes to this virus.

[ctujackbauer]

Originally Posted by Deadend45

“Extreme lockdowns work, no question about it,” said Timothy Sly, an epidemiologist with Ryerson University’s school of public health. “This is what China did, what Melbourne did, and it worked. Partial lockdowns just prolong the agony.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/7347955/a...ckdown-canada/

Eventually most medical experts will acknowledge a country cannot mask its way out of this. Absent a vaccine it can only be defeated the old fashion way, hardcore social distancing and "herd immunity" is a myth when it comes to this virus.

Extreme lockdowns...

like the UK? (now ramping with the possibility of more cases per day in the second wave than the USA, which is saying something)
Israel? (now in a second extreme lockdown)
Spain? (they brought the military into Madrid to enforce this second lockdown)
Italy? (currently ramping, arguably one of the worst hit in the first wave and one of the most extreme first wave lockdowns of any country)
France? (currently ramping with more cases than in the first spring wave)

[Penton-Man]

welcome news, an agreement reached - https://abc7.com/business/hollywood-...s-era/6505869/

[ay221]

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/...herd-immunity/

[Deadend45]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

welcome news, an agreement reached - https://abc7.com/business/hollywood-...s-era/6505869/

"That's not only true for love-making scenes and intimate scenes like that, it's also true for scenes like fight scenes where there's a lot of physical exertion,"

The two stuff I am least interested in. How many love and fight scenes were in the Oscar winning Spotlight?

[chip75]

Someone I know was just in a supermarket and a woman lowered their mask to cough as they walked by them.

People are the worst.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by ay221

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/...herd-immunity/

Doctors Fauci, Redfield, and Hahn (FDA) are testifying now (live) at a Senate hearing which you can find on the internet with a little googling, e.g. the Washington Post’s youtube is covering it. The Sweden situation was brought up about 20 min.? ago by Paul and Dr. Fauci replied.