Archived: Ask the Insiders: Judgment Day Edition

[Nick Graham]

Originally Posted by Spankey

In my best Jim Norton voice...



Sorry Penton. This time I have to disagree. If Universal ever comes over, this guy will never have my respect.

Part of the man's job is to publicly and enthusiastically endorse any and all decisions his company makes. None of the decisions any of the studios or CEs have made during this format war has been out of the goodness of their hearts. It's always been about money, and different parties have acted at different levels of professionalism as Penton alluded to. I don't see how we can fault the man for doing what his employers expect of him.

Universal is just milking whatever remaining cash they can from Toshiba, knowing that whether they jump to Blu now or 4 months from now isn't really going to have that much of an affect, as Blu is still the winner. It annoys the crap out of me that they don't just go neutral now and get it over with, but from a business stance it makes sense. It's a decision based on money, just as every decision in the history of the format war has been.

[JadedRaverLA]

Originally Posted by bmr76

Insiders,
Why is it every time something comes up about a CHECK, its Sony who will pay. I thought we had a thing called the BDA. Why is sony always the one fronting these pay outs?

Because if the BDA were cutting checks, they'd be in front of the justice department by the end of the week. Standards organizations, such as the BDA, cannot perform functions that would be seen as anti-competitive in the marketplace. Corporations, however, have far more flexibility to make deals with other corporations if it potentially furthers both companies business interests (and isn't seen to harm consumers).

BTW, none of this was meant to imply that Sony actually has been cutting checks... only that they (or Matsushita, etc) would need to be the ones to do so.

[Woody]

Originally Posted by OokieSpookie

By the end of the year quite a few people will have moved on.
The Warner thing was supposed to end this, all of the papers and everyone else said it was over yet the BDA seems incapable of ending this once and for all.
Do people forget that last year at CES there were big soundbites of "Hd-dvd is dead" ?
I do not comprehend how this could not have been planned for and how there could not have been counter measures in place.
Even the most inept of people keeping a watch on this situation could have seen that money hats would fly.
Not really sure why I assumed as many others did that the deals were done and just had a time delay.
So we find ourselves with two scenarios...

A) Toshiba bought silence and support until April to allow them to unload their players which is extremely shady, and unethical and which also means that Universal and Paramount are willingly going along with it.
B) Toshiba honestly plans to drag this thing out in an attempt to bury hd media as a whole since they could not win.

Dude, Para and Uni were not going to seriously consider switching without KNOWING WB was in the bag.

Now that they are, the BDA can talk from a position of power.

These are also "rumblings" we dont have any proof either way. Only time will tell.

IMO, the BDA has time on its side. The media is doing its damage.

[mystiksuicide]

Originally Posted by JTK

Exactly my point.

Have Universal and Paramount made this idiotic decision official yet in some type of announcement?

[Azumi]

Guys,

I don't like to step in the Insiders thread, but I wish to say that we should all chill for a second. Toshiba's only doing what they can to try and save their HD DVD business. But this doesn't mean that the fundamentals have changed. All the low pricing initiatives they did last year didn't turn the tables, and the clock is still ticking for the day they lose the film studio with the biggest lineup of 2008.

I think that this sale is just a negotiation. They're probably trying to grow the installed base, or rather the number of seats for the day where crossgrades and other transitional "considerations" might be put in place.

Toshiba's moving boxes because that's about the only thing they can do. Blu-ray's doing BOGOs because our side is content driven.

I think that the best way the BDA could respond, is aptly to remind everyone that these cheap boxes will be emptier and emptier by the minute.

In order to add a question to my train of thoughts, I'd like to ask again the Insiders a question that maybe got lost in the middle: is there any way that Warner could make I Am Legend a Blu-ray exclusive?

Wouldn't that be the most appropriate answer to Toshiba's fire sale?

[ottscay]

I was/am willing to play forgive and forget with executives who took the wrong side in a format war (especially Universal to this point, since they picked their horse in the begining) but if either Paramount or Universal are going to take money to sit on the sidelines while Toshiba suckers in more customers with firesales (endangering HDM and simply taking money away from honest if uninformed people) then they are going to gain my ire in addition to losing my respect.

Max or some other insider, how exactly can KG not be responsible for the ongoing situation (assuming there is a situation) at Universal? Are we to believe that the very GE that was pressuring Universal to go neutral is now not letting them?

Somone had better let Universal and Paramount know that stalling the market at this point will only result in customer backlash, and I think the enthusiast market actually owes it to themselves to take this stance if these two companies (not to mention Toshiba) are willing to treat customers this way.

Ken, I'm talking to directly to you: it's fine that you've had a job to do promoting a format that was in your companies interest (if not mine). But if you prolong a needless format war when the end is obvious, if you screw ordinary people out of their hard earned money by not bringing this to a close while Toshiba takes $150 of grandma and grangpa's cash, you will find no foregiveness from me.

[OokieSpookie]

Originally Posted by Azumi

Guys,

I don't like to step in the Insiders thread, but I wish to say that we should all chill for a second. Toshiba's only doing what they can to try and save their HD DVD business. But this doesn't mean that the fundamentals have changed. All the low pricing initiatives they did last year didn't turn the tables, and the clock is still ticking for the day they lose the film studio with the biggest lineup of 2008.

I think that this sale is just a negotiation. They're probably trying to grow the installed base, or rather the number of seats for the day where crossgrades and other transitional "considerations" might be put in place.

Toshiba's moving boxes because that's about the only thing they can do. Blu-ray's doing BOGOs because our side is content driven.

I think that the best way the BDA could respond, is aptly to remind everyone that these cheap boxes will be emptier and emptier by the minute.

In order to add a question to my train of thoughts, I'd like to ask again the Insiders a question that maybe got lost in the middle: is there any way that Warner could make I Am Legend a Blu-ray exclusive?

Wouldn't that be the most appropriate answer to Toshiba's fire sale?

Nobody has any illusions about them trying to turn it around, they will not happen and is not even an issue.
The issue is dragging this out.
The whole thing has been about ending this thing and going to one format.
Warner spoke of it directly, supposedly retailers are/were supposed to make changes.
This is not about Toshiba winning, there is no chance of that at all.
It is about whether they have an honest intention of dragging this thing on and trying to bury both formats in some loser's tantrum.

[Bombthroat]

Originally Posted by Jonty

Heck, I am willing to pick up Transformers as soon as it becomes available on Blu (even though I swore up and down that I wouldn't!)

I hear that. Even though I bought Transformers on DVD, I'd buy a Blu-ray of it in a second as long as it had lossless audio. The audio was probably my biggest disappointment with the DVD.

Guess I've gotten spoiled by the lossless audio in Blu-ray.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by Woody

Dude, Para and Uni were not going to seriously consider switching without KNOWING WB was in the bag.

Now that they are, the BDA can talk from a position of power.

These are also "rumblings" we dont have any proof either way. Only time will tell.

IMO, the BDA has time on its side. The media is doing its damage.

Partially agree.

The decisive factor for the war to end is retailer support. It is not too far fetched to grasp an economic reality where eventually precisely such exclusive configuration would materialize allowing HDDVD web-sales only. The cardinal issue here, as I see it, is the fact that after the fiasco is gone Toshiba will have some serious issues to deal with on its table. Regardless of how big of a business they run and how flexible their production is fact of the matter is certain consequences will be present for them. Addressing the content market would likely be their strategy #1 and I have every reason to believe that as a whole they will lose substantial market presence worldwide. All of this suggests two scenarios:

1.Toshiba would switch the focus of this war from winning, which they were never in a position to accomplish, to blending with the rest of the upscaling hadrware producers. A smart move but ultimately very transparent for analysts and industry observers.

2.Toshiba's plans evolving into supporting another platform: lower denominator being upscaling while higher one being delivery. Both of those are , as of this moment, "capped". The first one for the fact that studios are looking for new avenues to match, even partially, the success of the SDVD boom, and the second, due to the fact that other more flexible players (Microsoft) have other plans for it. The second one is hardly a global positioner either.

This analysis only leads me to believe that as much as the distirb unification under the BR umbrella is being delayed, for obvious and not so obvious reasons, the content suppliers will have the final say, majors and vendors, not Toshiba.

Dr.A

[WickyWoo]

I don't really see how any of Toshiba's IP can be integrated in. Their entire data backbone is done by Microsoft, and that would be the only thing they'd really have to sell. At best they could make their AVC encoders the endorsed encoders for Blu

[PaulGo]

I sentence all Toshiba execs to be put into a room and be forced to listen to their BS 24 hours a day until they realize how insane this is. I thought the Japanese have a sense of honor and pride in their statements. This is just a plain disgrace! The idiots who published this crap should be forced to resign, since they are disgracing their company and deceiving the public.

[Elandyll]

Ookie Spookie, among others, you need to seriously chill out.

It's been a friggin' -10- days since the Warner anouncement.
Did you seriously think Tosh was going to roll over and play dead?
Or that Uni and Para would accept to look like fools and just play "tag" by switching Blu Ray exclusive right away?

At this point everyone on the HD DVD side will try to save face.
It's going to happen, but -everyone- is going to try to find pretexts and pretenses to look good in their press releases.
It might take some time, but by mid-08, mark my word, it's going to be a Blu Planet.

[CAB]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

I don't really see how any of Toshiba's IP can be integrated in. Their entire data backbone is done by Microsoft, and that would be the only thing they'd really have to sell. At best they could make their AVC encoders the endorsed encoders for Blu

Wicky for President (of the BDA)!

P.S. Let's see if Paramount, Dreamworks, and Universal announce new titles that haven't already been encoded, pressed and boxed.

[Bullseye]

Toshiba is going to try its best to save their format and who can blame them. Universal and Paramount may even accept some money to hold off on releasing any statement regarding either format for a number of months with the promise of some millions. And who can blame them. They are going to release on BD in the future so you might as well milk that cow dry. However, it is my understanding that the retailers want this over asap. They are interested in a single format. WB moved us closer to that goal. This tactic from Toshiba is only going to delay the inevitable. But surely the retailers need to look at the big picture. So they sell one of these cheap HD-DVDs for under $150. Someone buys it and then Universal and Paramount announce that they are going to release on BD, neutrality it doesn’t matter its game over at that stage as BD has 100% content where HD-DVD only has 30%. When those people buy those recent players and the retailers do not inform those people that they only have 30% content how do you think those people are going to feel when the player is redundant. Do you think they are going to go back to the same retailer and say thanks buddy that player was a sure fire hit. It only lasted me 6 months and now I need to buy a BD player to get the other 70% content.
Most of the members here investigate players and equipment before we buy but the majority of the soccer mums and dads do not. If the retailers do not inform those buyers of the risk in buying that HD-DVD player they are only going to hurt their future profits.

[nhaase]

Originally Posted by mystiksuicide

I am no expert mind you but do you get a feeling we are looking at one last fire sale before they call it quits?

Yea, I agree w/ this. If you couple this fact w/ what Bill Hunt said today, that Tosh has convinced Paramount and Uni to hold off any announcement for a couple of months, they told those studios that this is what they are doing, and if it does not pay off (which it will not), then they can go.

Toshiba is now pinning their hopes on consumer ignorance, because even a half-way educated salesman will not recommend an HD DVD player, esp. given that BD players have better profit margins, if we believe the post some time ago by the former retailer at the bits.

[shug7272]

Originally Posted by phloyd

We were at CES and so was Silicon Image. I didn't personally speak to them but he did.

I am sure what ever information you have to offer is much more worthwhile? I don't really give a crap what you choose to believe. It is what it is.

You can also read the same information at FormatWarCentral (see the comments)

I gotta say EatMeCool is right, your "sources" and links are pretty laughable. Not saying your not right, I dont care, but....

PMan, if you can answer, has there been any attempts to get Blus Studios by Red? Im not asking for any details or if money is involved, but have the red's even tried?

[scott1256ca]

I think that article from informationweek sheds some light on this, and I think they could be correct. Toshiba is playing a dangerous game. If I were BB or CC or even one of the smaller retailers, I'd be less than pleased about having to price match an item I sold before Christmas that already had a low margin, and if I were a large retailer, again like BB or CC, I'd be holding Toshiba's feet to the fire, telling them that they would be swallowing the entire cost of my refunding money, or their TV's dvd players and laptops etc. might disappear from my shelves post haste.

Toshiba also risks alienating people who buy their player only to find out in March that while the format wasn't officially dead, all the action was just the death throws of HD DVD. But info week might also be correct that they won't be able to suck many people in anyway, so they don't lose much and do increase their bargaining position with Sony (or BDA, take your pick).

Now for Universal. Let's see, if what Talkstr8t alluded to (and I think one of the other insiders concurred, MaxPower maybe?) there isn't much excess capacity for BD disks anyhow, and they don't have any BD's authored. So, they take some more cash, hold off making any announcement, and in the meantime, they start authoring BD's and schedule some production time. Then, 2 months from now, when they have product available, they announce support for BD, with disk distribution to start very quickly. They get the money, BDA KNOWS they are going to be on board, because they are doing the authoring and scheduling, and the only real effect is they keep the HD DVD corpse twitching an extra couple of months. Any insider care to comment?

[phansson]

Originally Posted by mystiksuicide

I am no expert mind you but do you get a feeling we are looking at one last fire sale before they call it quits?

I agree with mystik on this one. I think this is just a big fire sale before the end. Right now these big box stores have inventory that they need to move. Toshiba is trying to get whatever they can before another big announcement. Nothing to worry about.

As for Ken Graffeo. Now we have had Maxpower and Penton-Man stand up for this guy. They are not going to tell us to back off Kenny G unless they had some good dealings with him. JMHO of course. Maybe we all need to wait and see what comes of the deal.

I for one think that Universal/Dreamworks/Paramount will annouce neutrality the end of this month or early February.

[ottscay]

Can an insider comment on the article at the BBC (I posted a thread about it here: https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...929#post513929 )?

This seems like an odd article on the issue of BD player profiles, and there isn't an author byline, a source cited for the "problems", nor a feedback link at the BBC website. Also, the timing seems a weee bit suspicious.

I normally have a lot of respect for the BBC, but this smells of someone doing a "hit" on Blu-ray to me. What do you (insiders) think, and is there any recourse?

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by shug7272

PMan, if you can answer, has there been any attempts to get Blus Studios by Red? Im not asking for any details or if money is involved, but have the red's even tried?

The reds tried to get Lionsgate several months back.
The thing recently reported on some online forums regarding Fox wasn’t even “negotiations”….it was more like *limited discussions*.