81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[pflieger]

Originally Posted by sj001

How many times can these numbers be spun? HMM had the final results, what else is there to say?

Those are not spun, those are from several sources that used all the available numbers to reach the true numbers or as best available.

So now you don't think 300 sold more then Transformers?

HMM is just one source not the only source in the world, even they cannot be perfect, they were used as one part of the equation along with Nielsen and several other sources.

I wish it was so easy we could just use one source for all the real numbers with no one disputing anything.

Some don't like Nielsen and dispute their numbers, others don't like amazon numbers and HMM numbers an dispute them the sources I saw use all available reputable sources and put them together in rank of estimated percentages and where they receive their numbers from (how large of a market segment).

[L or S of Perfect?]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Time for everyone to play: FIND THE PLAYERS.

Is this one of those exercises where you need to find the needle in the proverbial haystack?

Are these metaphoric or imaginary players?

[horseflesh]

There will inevitably be two HD DVD exclusives in the Top 10 next week; Transformers & Shrek.

Anyone else think the HD DVD camp will be screaming success,
"HD DVD DOUBLES it's representation in the Top 10!!! Obvioulsy now we're twice as healthy as we were last week!!"

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by pflieger

Those are not spun, those are from several sources that used all the available numbers to reach the true numbers or as best available.

You are spinning the numbers. Home Media Magazine is in a far better place to figure out the multiplier than you are. They came up with 115K estimation, with 130 being stretch.

You pulled magical math based off of exactly one statistic, and came up with a number 22K higher than HMM. Which you still have no reason to disbelieve.

Just because 65% of the retail market came up with 89000 discs, doesn't even mean you can just do 89000/.65 and call it a day. For all you know, 30% of the remaining 35% of the retail market doesn't even sell HD-DVDs, or doesn't sell them till weeks after the fact.

By the way, it is complete BS to think that there were any significant sales overseas. Most of the people who admit to buying HD-DVDs and shipping them overseas do so from Amazon, which is already counted. Furthermore, HD-DVD player sales overseas are pathetically bad.

[LynxFX]

Originally Posted by pflieger

Those are not spun, those are from several sources that used all the available numbers to reach the true numbers or as best available.

They most definitely are spun and those numbers aren't from several sources. They are all from the exact same source as the numbers that are being discussed in this thread. You even say it yourself, all those 'sources' have taken the Neilsen numbers (actual sales) and just multiplied it by what they believe their market reach is, and from the looks of it, used the 'best case scenario' to support their cause. It could very well be the number you posted, but it could be a lot less as well. One thing is for sure, it is not 190k.

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

I'm sorry but you got that wrong again (well in my opinion). Toshiba will not slow down the decline in DVD by killing Bluray adoption. It's the natural order of things. DVD has been flat/in decline before anyone owned a Bluray player. It probably has to do with slashing of prices over the years. In the short term some studios made a TON of money on these dump bins you see in most retailers (like Wal-mart) however the effect isn't felt for years. Right now you are seeing the effect of marking down DVD's so low Rev starts to slide. Eventually people own the movies they want and prices are dirt cheap.....the only way to go is down.

Toshibas best chance to keep their royalties is win this format war.

Remember that Toshiba's royalties are on patents and licensing. Those are generally calculated based on number of units, not price (e.g., 59 cents per disc sold or something).

DVD revenue for studios may be in decline because unit price is doing down, but Toshiba's royalties will not be affected until the unit number goes down significantly. And that won't happen until Blu-ray (or something else) takes over majority of the market.

That's why Toshiba (and Micro$oft, which has another agenda, but that's a topic for a separate thread) is paying off studios to keep their failing format afloat as long as they can.

enjoy
gandalf

[olarmy96]

Exactly. We're on the same page. If you want the Nielsen numbers to matter, you should think twice about DVD purchases. Those help fund Toshiba and risk our ability to enjoy HD movies in the future.

Originally Posted by gand41f

Remember that Toshiba's royalties are on patents and licensing. Those are generally calculated based on number of units, not price (e.g., 59 cents per disc sold or something).

DVD revenue for studios may be in decline because unit price is doing down, but Toshiba's royalties will not be affected until the unit number goes down significantly. And that won't happen until Blu-ray (or something else) takes over majority of the market.

That's why Toshiba (and Micro$oft, which has another agenda, but that's a topic for a separate thread) is paying off studios to keep their failing format afloat as long as they can.

enjoy
gandalf

[sj001]

Originally Posted by pflieger

Those are not spun, those are from several sources that used all the available numbers to reach the true numbers or as best available.

So now you don't think 300 sold more then Transformers?

HMM is just one source not the only source in the world, even they cannot be perfect, they were used as one part of the equation along with Nielsen and several other sources.

I wish it was so easy we could just use one source for all the real numbers with no one disputing anything.

Some don't like Nielsen and dispute their numbers, others don't like amazon numbers and HMM numbers an dispute them the sources I saw use all available reputable sources and put them together in rank of estimated percentages and where they receive their numbers from (how large of a market segment).

So I get the point, you don't think the Neilsen numbers are accurate, you have driven that point home in your thirty-something posts. That's perfectly fine, but those are the best and most accurate numbers available today, and if retailers and companies did not think so, I do not think they would take part in it.

Obviously nothing is perfect, I'll leave it at that. What else is there to discuss? This is like playing ping-pong, hitting the ball back and forth and million times, you aren't getting anywhere.

[pflieger]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

You are spinning the numbers. Home Media Magazine is in a far better place to figure out the multiplier than you are. They came up with 115K estimation, with 130 being stretch.

You pulled magical math based off of exactly one statistic, and came up with a number 22K higher than HMM. Which you still have no reason to disbelieve.

Just because 65% of the retail market came up with 89000 discs, doesn't even mean you can just do 89000/.65 and call it a day. For all you know, 30% of the remaining 35% of the retail market doesn't even sell HD-DVDs, or doesn't sell them till weeks after the fact.

By the way, it is complete BS to think that there were any significant sales overseas. Most of the people who admit to buying HD-DVDs and shipping them overseas do so from Amazon, which is already counted. Furthermore, HD-DVD player sales overseas are pathetically bad.

I didn't spin those numbers (I didn't even come up with them), how would it be spinning a number if one number is 65.4% of the market and using that number and adding the additional 34.6% at the same rate to make the estimated total of market sales. Doesn't 65.4 + 34.6 = 100% in your universe?

It is amazing how narrow minded some of you are and won't even discuss any new information that is available. I know this is a Blu-Ray fan site but you even dispute the lower numbers for Transformers and the higher numbers for a Blu-Ray disc.

It is obvious some of you do not care to learn anything you have not already decided as fact (no matter if it is true or not).

I'll try to not post anything that hasn't already been posted several times here even if it is proved everywhere else as being out of date from new information that is available.

[pflieger]

Originally Posted by sj001

So I get the point, you don't think the Neilsen numbers are accurate, you have driven that point home in your thirty-something posts. That's perfectly fine, but those are the best and most accurate numbers available today, and if retailers and companies did not think so, I do not think they would take part in it.

Obviously nothing is perfect, I'll leave it at that. What else is there to discuss? This is like playing ping-pong, hitting the ball back and forth and million times, you aren't getting anywhere.

Actually very few companies consider Nielsen to be truly dead on accurate but until some other method comes along to use, it is at a least an acceptable way of judging tends.

The 65.4% is the accepted number for the percentage of the total HD market for Nielsen for the most companies (there are several), then they just use math to decide what the real numbers are as close as possible.

I might be getting somewhere but the ones that do secretly agree to some extent wouldn't dare post it on the chance some of you would start yelling Troll and or FUD (which is truly sad).

[sj001]

Originally Posted by pflieger

Actually very few companies consider Nielsen to truly accurate but until some other method comes along to use it as a least an acceptable way of judging tends.

The 65.4% is the accepted number for the percentage of the total HD market for Nielsen for the most companies (there are several), then they just use math to decide what the real numbers are as close as possible.

Isn't that what you are trying to do right now? How are your numbers more accurate than theirs?

...and you admit in your response that they are an acceptable way of judging trends...

[pflieger]

Originally Posted by LynxFX

They most definitely are spun and those numbers aren't from several sources. They are all from the exact same source as the numbers that are being discussed in this thread. You even say it yourself, all those 'sources' have taken the Neilsen numbers (actual sales) and just multiplied it by what they believe their market reach is, and from the looks of it, used the 'best case scenario' to support their cause. It could very well be the number you posted, but it could be a lot less as well. One thing is for sure, it is not 190k.

You must have not read my previous post, I thought I posted 137,417 was probably the true number sold for Transformers.

But if you cannot read then fine believe 190,000 is the real number posted there.

[mystiksuicide]

I am usually pretty close with the numbers this week I will be going out on the limb and say:

76-24

[jcdDigix]

Originally Posted by pflieger

I might be getting somewhere but the ones that do secretly agree to some extent wouldn't dare post it on the chance some of you would start yelling Troll and or FUD (which is truly sad).

Humpf!
Troll and or FUD, are U?

[L or S of Perfect?]

Originally Posted by pflieger

Actually very few companies consider Nielsen to be truly dead on accurate but until some other method comes along to use, it is at a least an acceptable way of judging tends.

The 65.4% is the accepted number for the percentage of the total HD market for Nielsen for the most companies (there are several), then they just use math to decide what the real numbers are as close as possible.

I might be getting somewhere but the ones that do secretly agree to some extent wouldn't dare post it on the chance some of you would start yelling Troll and or FUD (which is truly sad).

It's funny how you post

From what I've seen the official numbers are:
Spiderman 3 78,511
Spiderman Trilogy boxset 56,489

So I would guess that would mean 135,000 Spiderman 3s were actually sold in the first week, although they are the official numbers it does seem strange they would add up to a perfect even number.

Sure it doesn't beat Transformer's 190,000 but still a really good number for a high definition DVD.

not too long ago, and now you're the expert on Nielson & their numbers.

Not that anyone cares, but you can add me to the list of people who think you do understand more than you're letting on, and are a troll.

You're now on my ignore list. If you wish to add me to yours or if you wish to refute my post, that's fine as well...

[jimsch42]

Originally Posted by sj001

Isn't that what you are trying to do right now? How are your numbers more accurate than theirs?

...and you admit in your response that they are an acceptable way of judging trends...

Dude, I added him to my ignore list earlier today and now you're quoting him.

Anyway, I'm guessing 79:21

[Dogdvr]

Originally Posted by pflieger

You must have not read my previous post, I thought I posted 137,417 was probably the true number sold for Transformers.

But if you cannot read then fine believe 190,000 is the real number posted there.

Dang it
I tried and tried

first ignore on my list

[Razzy]

Originally Posted by jimsch42

Dude, I added him to my ignore list earlier today and now you're quoting him.

Don't ya just hate it when that happens?

[UTVOL06]

78:22

[sj001]

Originally Posted by jimsch42

Dude, I added him to my ignore list earlier today and now you're quoting him.

Anyway, I'm guessing 79:21

Sorry, I won't be responding to/quoting the "Neilsen Expert" anymore anyways.