81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Neo65]

Originally Posted by OokieSpookie

It is not a great week for blu ray if those numbers hold.
The Shrek hd sold like crap, and did not sell close to as many as Rat did it's first week.
We had 12.99 sales, bogo sales, and amazon sales.
Hd had nothing yet they still gained a point.
Yes I know...one point but it makes you wonder what it would have been if hd had a sale or two on movies going on at the time too.

For the most part bogo sales don't work. Based on what we've seen, they help sell perhaps 2000 copies of a title, tops, 1000 is more likely for the older releases, so unless you do BOGO on everything, which did not happen, they're only borrowing from next week's sales numbers.

The 3 biggest red movies are TF, Shrek3, Bourne. And I had my doubts about Shrek3 doing well mainly because it is animation after all, but lets not forget that Shrek3 and TF were the main Paramount exclusives --- pretty expensive too to shut them out from the blu side.

In my mind, the Paramount move was really only about TF, Shrek3 didn't really matter.

Bourne is the last red movie this year to have a potential major impact.

The blu side only has DieHard, PotC3 to consider. DieHard is likely not going to do numbers like 300 or spidey, but Fox would announce something early next week if they can move 100k disks. PotC3, I have some hopes but then it is more from the proximity to xmas than the actual movie. Sequels lose their original novelty very quickly.

Simpson's movie and Superbad will do ok numbers, but will not set any records. I wonder if they will sell more than Shrek3, that would be shocking wouldn't it?

[stockstar1138]

my predictions

HD DVD:

Bourne: 90k

Blu-ray:

Die Hard + Boxset: 90k
POTC 3: 175k
Superbad: 60k (i know, a lot of people loved it, but it won't appeal that much beyond the younger PS3 crowd, its R rating will hurt it a bit too for younger PS3 users, mom and dad won't be picking up this movie for their kids for xmas.)
The Simpsons: 60k (even thought this wasn't as great as superbad, its "The Simpsons" so that will give it a boost, everybody loves the simpsons.)

Thoughts?

[atomik kinder]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Seems 2:1 is locked in. It just keeps being repeated at all sorts of scales.

Clearly, those 70K-100K new A2 owners didn't rush out to buy Shrek 3. And that is interesting. Aren't they interested in movies for their new toy?

Gary

Personally I think the 90,000 HD DVD players sold was a lie. You would think by now somebody would have bought movies. But as reported a week or so ago, Wal-Mart only sold 30,000 A2s. I doubt Best Buy sold the rest of the 60,000.

[w_tanoto]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

my predictions

HD DVD:

Bourne: 90k

Blu-ray:

Die Hard + Boxset: 90k
POTC 3: 175k
Superbad: 60k (i know, a lot of people loved it, but it won't appeal that much beyond the younger PS3 crowd, its R rating will hurt it a bit too for younger PS3 users, mom and dad won't be picking up this movie for their kids for xmas.)
The Simpsons: 60k (even thought this wasn't as great as superbad, its "The Simpsons" so that will give it a boost, everybody loves the simpsons.)

Thoughts?

the simpsons should be more than 60k. Pirates number is perhaps a bit over.

[WickyWoo]

Considering Pirates 1 and 2 have yet to do that many combined at last count

Pirates 3- 125, Simpsons will probalby come in between 75 and 100

Die Hard plus box 60-70k

Much more realistic numbers

[w_tanoto]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

Considering Pirates 1 and 2 have yet to do that many combined at last count

Pirates 3- 125, Simpsons will probalby come in between 75 and 100

Die Hard plus box 60-70k

Much more realistic numbers

agree

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by w_tanoto

the simpsons should be more than 60k. Pirates number is perhaps a bit over.

i don't think pirates is high at all. if spidey can do 133k and another 250k ps3s have been sold in NA between the two releases, i think we can say 20k of these new owners will buy POTC on blu-ray, thats about 8% of the new users. we also have probably another 60k standalones sold within there, so will just say another 10k out of those ppl buys POTC, that gives us 163k. add in another 12k simply because its closer to xmas. its not unreasonable at all.

i didn't remember the simpsons being a smash hit at the box office like spidey, potc, transformers, shrek, etc. while i do think it will sell more than shrek, i can't see it beating out spidey, potc, or trasnformers (it sold 90k first week), id be willing to say it does 70k, cause it should do just as well as the rat.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

Personally I think the 90,000 HD DVD players sold was a lie. You would think by now somebody would have bought movies. But as reported a week or so ago, Wal-Mart only sold 30,000 A2s. I doubt Best Buy sold the rest of the 60,000.

I doubt the 90K number too . And whatever the number, I think a lot were purchased as second players by current owners. And probably a good number were purchased as Xmas presents, so they won't have any affect for six weeks.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

Considering Pirates 1 and 2 have yet to do that many combined at last count

Pirates 3- 125, Simpsons will probalby come in between 75 and 100

Die Hard plus box 60-70k

Much more realistic numbers

first two were catalog titles. we've seen how much better day-and-date releases do than catalog titles.

rat did 70k and was simply "too young" of a movie to appeal to a lot of blu-ray owners, die hard is right up the PS3 crowds alley. i think this should easily allow it to top ratatouille. but still only sell about 2/3s of what spidey did.

posted above that i probably did underestimate the simpsons numbers, but i will stick to my 175k prediction and 90k prediction for POTC3 and Die Hard + box set, respectively.

[richteer]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

I doubt the 90K number too . And whatever the number, I think a lot were purchased as second players by current owners. And probably a good number were purchased as Xmas presents, so they won't have any affect for six weeks.

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of them were bought as upscaling DVD players.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by richteer

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of them were bought as upscaling DVD players.

no doubt that many were. no doubt many were sold as second players. no doubt many were bought thinking they could play movies in hd by columbia, tri-star, mgm, fox, disney, lionsgate, etc., no doubt when some came in the next week to get something other than free movies they bawked at the price tage of software, no doubt the 90k number was overestimated. all in all hd dvd probably got around 20k new customers over that firesale, which really is pathetic considering they probably sold about 50k players at at a 400 dollar los, which cost toshiba a solid 20 million.

[w_tanoto]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

i don't think pirates is high at all. if spidey can do 133k and another 250k ps3s have been sold in NA between the two releases, i think we can say 20k of these new owners will buy POTC on blu-ray, thats about 8% of the new users. we also have probably another 60k standalones sold within there, so will just say another 10k out of those ppl buys POTC, that gives us 163k. add in another 12k simply because its closer to xmas. its not unreasonable at all.

i didn't remember the simpsons being a smash hit at the box office like spidey, potc, transformers, shrek, etc. while i do think it will sell more than shrek, i can't see it beating out spidey, potc, or trasnformers (it sold 90k first week), id be willing to say it does 70k, cause it should do just as well as the rat.

well, cosidering some new PS3 owners, the trend might be different by the time pirates 3 comes out, but discounting that, I agree with WickyWoo number for pirates.

[WickyWoo]

I find it's better to be conservative in my estimates and be pleasantly suprised later rather than skirting the edge of realistic outcomes

[Joon]

Any word on the figures for this week? They are usually up by now.

[w_tanoto]

Originally Posted by Joon

Any word on the figures for this week? They are usually up by now.

somebody said 66 to BD

[WickyWoo]

I honestly don't expect them to show up till monday because of the holiday. 66:34 is quite likely to be right

Spidey and Pixar spillover

[chchau]

just had a question for all the blu peeps ??
since its pretty routine that bluray sales are alwasy 2:1 in sales against the red camp.

i dont have a hddvd player but do they play standard dvds as well ??

if they do play dvds as well with all the sales for these CHEAP in many ways hddvd players isnt it just another way to play dvds.

so i dont see the ppl buying the cheap hddvd players buying and hd movies cause their not cheap enough.

i think thats one reason why hddvd wont close the gap with bluray players

cheap players = cheap hddvds, thats not happening
and if i was a customer i wouldnt buy it hddvd movies either, i would just stick to the cheap dvd movies

just a newbies opinion

[marzetta7]

Originally Posted by chchau

just had a question for all the blu peeps ??
since its pretty routine that bluray sales are alwasy 2:1 in sales against the red camp.

i dont have a hddvd player but do they play standard dvds as well ??

if they do play dvds as well with all the sales for these CHEAP in many ways hddvd players isnt it just another way to play dvds.

so i dont see the ppl buying the cheap hddvd players buying and hd movies cause their not cheap enough.

i think thats one reason why hddvd wont close the gap with bluray players

cheap players = cheap hddvds, thats not happening
and if i was a customer i wouldnt buy it hddvd movies either, i would just stick to the cheap dvd movies

just a newbies opinion

Yup, the HD DVD players play standard DVDs. However, Blu-ray players also play DVDs as well. So, I know what you are saying here, but I'm not so sure this is the cause for the 2:1 sales gap in favor of Blu-ray.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by w_tanoto

somebody said 66 to BD

It was said by David Vaughn who last week pre-announced the 65:35 number.

66:34....Take that one to the bank. Shrek III came in first, but sales were about 1/2 of what the Rat did.

[JAGUAR1977]

More HD-DVD spin:-

You see, that's a good point. We can discuss it like adults.

Wal-Mart are 40% of the SD DVD market.

It's likely (or at least possible) it takes a bigger than 40% cut of the high def market after selling so many A2s so suddenly.

But that would be weighted to A2 owners, which is to say HD DVD, not BD owners.

This is proper, adult, scientific discussion.

Steve W

66/34 is still very good. Plus, a weak movie (Shrek the Third) still outperformed Ocean's 13, which was released on both formats.

Also, Blu-ray has Spider-Man 3, Spider-Man Trilogy boxset, Ratatouille, Cars and the Pixar Collection.

When working with such low numbers overall, these are solid for HD DVD.