81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[DaViD Boulet]

What hurt in certain ways, in my opinion,was the BDA not mandating 2.0 from the start, or that players must have the memory and the ethernet port..so at least all players then would be ready for a firmware update for 1.1 and 2.0.

Agreed. Toshiba did give HD DVD hardware the advantage of mandated features that even at this late state aren't all yet even available on BD hardware (2.0). That's rediculous, and the BDA, in my opinion, were partly responsible for the lead that HD DVD took because of allowing such a poorly conceived product-rollout to take place along side fully-functional HD DVD gear.

Universal has been singing the praises of web-based features, as have Warner. Had BD offered that from the start (along with 1.1), that's just one less feather that would have been in HD DVD's cap... and we'd have the Matrix and Batman on BD!

[SpikesBluBlooded]

What you have to remember is that the spec was not able to be completed (2.0 compliant, basically) and still be able to be brought to market in enough time to compete with HD DVD. Remember, we're dealing with a revolutionary product rather than an evolutionary product, and therefore there has to be some concessions given and expected.

Also, 1.1 and 2.0 aren't just memory or ethernet issues (well, 2.0 is strictly ethernet I believe), but hardware as well. The technology for blu-ray was still being developed for the PIP when the first players were released, and it was stated from the get-go that this would be an issue right about now as far as early adapters are concerned.

I really don't believe that Warner really cares about that, truly, as mass adaptation hasn't even begun, and therefore it will truly only affect those that have been with the format from the get-go. With a vast majority of blu-ray owners coming from PS3's, there's truly a very miniscule number of players out there that can't handle all of the features in the way they are intended. Bottom line is it's small peanuts compared to the bigger picture...

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by Skygod

Sorry if this has been referenced before (I'm a first-time poster, and have been reading here for about a month).

Does anyone else find Amazon's treatment of HD DVD vs. Blu-ray to be pro-red? Seems like their "more details" columns stresses blu short-comings, but mostly skips over blu advantages.

Maybe I'm just too affected by my time here and newfound passion for blu disks, but:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.htm...01&pf_rd_i=130

Yeah, their chart is weak to say the least.

[Robert Siegel]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

Agreed. Toshiba did give HD DVD hardware the advantage of mandated features that even at this late state aren't all yet even available on BD hardware (2.0). That's rediculous, and the BDA, in my opinion, were partly responsible for the lead that HD DVD took because of allowing such a poorly conceived product-rollout to take place along side fully-functional HD DVD gear.

Universal has been singing the praises of web-based features, as have Warner. Had BD offered that from the start (along with 1.1), that's just one less feather that would have been in HD DVD's cap... and we'd have the Matrix and Batman on BD!

Also agreed (Hi David). I don't think the blu-ray format was ready at all when it first came out (obviously), but I do think that Sony had to get the format on the market, so they did the best they could and considering the software sales, still did ok, but the punch could have been bigger. I hope alot of 2.0 players are announced at CES, because I am so sick of Universal's ranting. It's nice to have the 1.1 gibberish over, now let's get past the 2.0 and we're home free. For me, I could care less for my own personal use. I use the machine to watch movies. I've seen some of the web features on hd-dvd and every one has sucked. The worst was Chuck and Larry, where they throw shopping on the web through a movie player in my face. But none have impressed me at all. As for 1.1, it's nice to have on my ps3 but I doubt I will ever watch a commentary and a movie at the same time. I have over 2,000 dvd's and have watched maybe 5 commentaries.

Just give me the player with Dolby True and DTS Master capability and I am happy. But that's also been only here and there, some through analog and some through HDMI and some with Dolby True and soe without DTS HD. I am still waiting for a perfect player for me. I do not have an HDMI receiver, so I listen to soundtracks through the optical (lossy). The only options I know of for me are the Panasonic DMP-BD10A and the new Samsung combi player (firmware coming soon) for DTS HD and Dolby True through the analogs. I have been waiting for a new receiver until I see what CES has to offer in the 2nd generation of receivers with the new sound formats. Onkyo's current line is decently priced but I have heard of too many problems (overheating, PS3 clicking ect).

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

and we'd have the Matrix and Batman on BD!

Honestly I think Warner gave those titles timed exclusives to HD-DVD. It had nothign to do with the extra's. Toshiba more than likely asked Warner to give them timed exclusives for certain titles that would have the best chance to showcase HD-DVD and sell the format.

It's very similar to games with timed exclusives.

For example, 300 should have been HD-DVD only if they felt it was that important to have the "extras" on the BR version. Truth is they don't CARE about the extra because all studios know that these extras don't effect sales.

Ever wonder why suddenly you have a lot of DVD's with barebones extras and for $5 more you can buy the special edition? Because the stuidos know the majority of consumers want the movie and dont' care about the extras. The few that do like the extras.....they can just milk another $5 from you.

[DaViD Boulet]

What you have to remember is that the spec was not able to be completed (2.0 compliant, basically) and still be able to be brought to market in enough time to compete with HD DVD. Remember, we're dealing with a revolutionary product rather than an evolutionary product, and therefore there has to be some concessions given and expected.

Also, 1.1 and 2.0 aren't just memory or ethernet issues (well, 2.0 is strictly ethernet I believe), but hardware as well. The technology for blu-ray was still being developed for the PIP when the first players were released, and it was stated from the get-go that this would be an issue right about now as far as early adapters are concerned.

but even now, when the specs and technology are done, we don't see advanced audio decoding required in players, and the 2.0 spec is NEVER even going to become mandatory either... just optional even after it's finalized.

That's embarassing, and it doesn't make BD look particularly good (in regards to those issues) along side HD DVD which *does* mandate them (though not DTS-HD decoding). The BDA compromised Blu-ray Disc as a result of pandering to the demands of the manufacturers, and the format has suffered as a result.

If the BDA was doing it "right", and if it was truly just an issue of timing with technology and specs, then by this point advanced audio decoding WOULD BE MANDATORY ON ALL BD GEAR and once 2.0 was finalized it too would become mandatory.

IMO, it's not too late for the BDA to correct this wrong and mandate those requirements.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by JasonS

I think the reason we won't see anything *this* Friday is because it would absolutely destroy the HD DVD promotions group for CES. I mean what do you say 2 days later when you just lost the WB and lost the war. Um sorry guys that we dragged this out for 2 years...Microsoft took us all for fools.

Hmm. I quite like the idea of watching that. Here's hoping for something.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

but even now, when the specs aren technology are done, we don't see advanced audio decoding required in players, and the 2.0 spec is NEVER even going to become mandatory either... just optional even after it's finalized.

That's embarassing, and it doesn't make BD look particularly good (in regards to those issues) along side HD DVD which *does* mandate them (though not DTS-HD decoding). The BDA compromised Blu-ray Disc as a result of pandering to the demands of the manufacturers, and the format has suffered as a result.

If the BDA was doing it "right", and if it was truly just an issue of timing with technology and specs, then by this point advanced audio decoding WOULD BE MANDATORY ON ALL BD GEAR and once 2.0 was finalized it too would become mandatory.

IMO, it's not too late for the BDA to correct this wrong and mandate those requirements.

if the bda did it right, blu-ray wouldn't have come out weeks after hd dvd, instead it would have been a year and ps3 would have probably been delayed too. if hd dvd had a year head start, blu-ray would have had a very hard time becoming the leader. they did the right thing. this is really all hd dvds fault.

[phloyd]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

If the BDA was doing it "right", and if it was truly just an issue of timing with technology and specs, then by this point advanced audio decoding WOULD BE MANDATORY ON ALL BD GEAR and once 2.0 was finalized it too would become mandatory.

IMO, it's not too late for the BDA to correct this wrong and mandate those requirements.

Network requires extra hardware that the customer should be able to choose to buy or not to buy.

I do not see any advantage in forcing BD player manufacturers to add hardware to all players for features that most people don't want.

Ultimately the BOM costs for the cheapest HD DVD player will be more than that for the cheapest BD player due to the mandatory additional components and codec royalties faced by the HD DVD player.

[LynxFX]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

360 will never have a blu-ray drive internally, the next xbox will.

The next xbox will most likely have no drive at all, besides maybe DVD just for backwards compatibility. MS wants everything to be downloads, games included. If they do by chance put in a BD drive it will only be on their 'elite' system and just for BD movies. They'll push downloads with all their might with the next xbox system. Kind of like how Sony has pushed BD with all their might with the PS3.

[kjack]

Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet

That's embarassing, and it doesn't make BD look particularly good (in regards to those issues) along side HD DVD which *does* mandate them (though not DTS-HD decoding). The BDA compromised Blu-ray Disc as a result of pandering to the demands of the manufacturers, and the format has suffered as a result.

The CE manufacturers wanted to offer a range of BD players with varying features, and not burden every player sold in the world with features many consumers may not use, yet ultimately have to pay for.

Would you want to see that every HDTV sold be mandatory to be at least 60" and 120Hz to ensure consumers get a proper HD experience? And that LCD technology cannot be used due to its current limitations?

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by LynxFX

The next xbox will most likely have no drive at all, besides maybe DVD just for backwards compatibility. MS wants everything to be downloads, games included. If they do by chance put in a BD drive it will only be on their 'elite' system and just for BD movies. They'll push downloads with all their might with the next xbox system. Kind of like how Sony has pushed BD with all their might with the PS3.

there is no way they will go this route if they want to compete with sony. lets face it, they want downloads to be the future for everything. now games near the end of this generation are going to be hitting upwards of 50GB. games for next generation should be starting at around 50GB and growing higher. now tell me how a consumer is going to fit his gaming, hd movies, and music all on an HDD. its not possible we are looking for the hardcore media enthusist to need at least 20 TB of space to fit this all his stuff for his xbox. it is going to be insanely expesnive. lets just assume that the avg. game for the next generation is 75GB, i know my brother already has at least 25 xbox 360 games and he will easily be up to 50 by the end of this generation right there thats almost 4TB. Then lets say a person has 100 (people on this forum already have 400 already, so this isn't unreasonable to demand) movies that are about 30GB (HD DVD quality) apiece. We are up to 7GB easily and you know there are going to be people that have 100 games with 400 movies which will require 20TB worth of space. the next xbox will be out in 4 years, 20TB drives are going to be very expenisve even then. Internet speeds have to catch up too. Downloads simply don't have the option of catching on unless its used like a rental service.

[ACD]

Home Media Magazine: 'Simpsons' Top Seller Again

Pirates also was the top Blu-ray Disc seller for the week, while on the HD DVD sales chart The Kingdom took No. 1.

[Rup_Muk]

Originally Posted by ACD

Home Media Magazine: 'Simpsons' Top Seller Again

Actually, Simpson's was the top DVD seller. At the bottom of the HMM article:

"Pirates also was the top Blu-ray Disc seller for the week, while on the HD DVD sales chart The Kingdom took No. 1."

Rup.

[stockstar1138]

if the kingdom was the top hd dvd seller, it really tells you how much of an impact amazon has on the market. the kingdom wasn't even close to being a top selling title on amazon, but somehow makes #1 for HD DVD.

[eat_me_cool]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

The war isn't over until the remaining studios flip too.

Warner going red would make it advantage HD DVD. But, unless Disney and Fox release on HD DVD it means a stalemate.

A lead isn't a win. I would have though the current situation makes that clear enough.

Gary

Even if WB goes for HD-DVD or Blu-ray, the format war will drag on for another year. Look how long Universal keep HD-DVD afloat by itself.

[davidPS3]

Originally Posted by xmositox

Well if warner goes red......

I think we are pretty much split down the middle

Warner Paramount Universal (and their smaller studios)

VS

Sony Lionsgate Fox Disney (and their smaller studios)


It will pretty much be a stalemate unless one their a another shift and another studio changes side.

If Warner goes Blu then its all over.....

Warner has stated before they don't want a stalemate. It would kill the HD format, their greatest future growth potential. There is only one way for them to go, Blu. And the numbers prove it, world-wide.

[mystiksuicide]

Originally Posted by Elandyll

My Predictions for 2008

1 - Within the first three weeks of January, we see the first 8x-2x or worse ratio in Nielsen-Videoscan history for Blu Ray vs HD DVD (for Blu, of course)

2- HD DVD tries to compete with a B1G1 or two during the rest of Jan-Feb, but is pretty much stuck around 7x-3x at best

3- There was No Major anouncements at the CES, except that Warner confirms they are re-evaluating their stance, Blu Ray chinese players and Funai players are anounced for Spring at sub $249 prices, and a Big Bulky Retail store anounces they are going Blu Ray exclusive, which goes to make big headlines in the industry and the press.
Gates at his keynote speech does not anounce anything special regarding HD DVD, but put a big emphasis on the future of digital distribution and VoD (aka dowloads), and hints at a new (more "HD oriented") version of Vista, that he will name Vista Cruiser (ok I'm pushing it).
Several new 1.1 models are presented, and Sony anounces the deadline for 2.0

4- Following this, Toshiba and HD DVD enter a phase of thrashing and pushing, end of jan/early Feb with more Amazon Bogos, some Walmart deals and probaly another "special" with A3's at $79 or $89 for a week end.
Blu Ray anounces machine prices down to $249 for 1.0 players for Spring, along with the arrival of the new 1.1 models
HD DVD fanboys anounce that with the 3 days $79 machines, it's over for Blu Ray, despite the numbers of standalone players having shifted toward Blu seriosuly since Xmas 07...

5- Mid Feb., Warner cancels several HD DVD releases scheduled for later on.
Speculations run wild in the blogosphere, HD DVD fanboys say that they are just preparing to go Red exclusive.
Worldwide, the ratio Blu / HD is published and said to be about 80-20.

6- End of Feb., in a speech of general intentions/policy for Warner, the new CEO (about middle of speech, among other things) denotes that after carefully reviewing the market, the logical move is now for Warner to go Blu Ray exclusive, with all new releases affected. He notes (him or a Rep later in Q&A) that Catalog titles still only present in HD DVD only will be released by year end on Blu progressively following this change. BB most notably will have a "BR deluxe" release jointly with the "Dark Knight" release.

7- End of Feb. Major commotion in HD industry, Analysts publish their "HD DVD is dead" prognostics and journalists akin. Other retail stores anounce their intention of going Blu Ray exclusive within a short period of time.

8- Mid March, NBC/Universal in a speech toward their investors declare that it now makes sense for them to move toward Neutrality, given the strength that blu Ray shows and that its finalized spec is looming on the horizon.
The Nielsen sales ratio is now deadlocked in the high 80's low 10's for Blu Ray.

9- Mid April - The new Chinese BR players arrive, your average Samsung 1400 can now be found as low as $198, a Funai 1.1 at $219, and a Chinese 1.0 (1.1?) at $149. Denon anounces its first 2.0 for the summer, ultra high-end, for a price of $699/$799 (will be found at $499/$599 by Xmas).

10 - end of April/early May - BDA anounces War is all but over, with more than 80% (since Weinstein joined) of the film market, and a split at 90-10 of disc sales.
Hardware sales of standalones Blu Ray since Inception just passed HD DVD+Add on, as sales, alredy strong in 08, exploded with the cheaper models.

11- Mid May Sony releses the BD-600, their first 2.0 with BD-Live enabled, along with the grand opening of "Home" for PS3. BD-Live uses can share tons of things (reminiscent of the HD DVD "favorite scens and co), and PS3 Blu Ray viewers can create a "virtual home", etc...
At first a $599 player, the BD-600 will rapidly fall in the $399-$499 range (before Xmas 08).

12- June 2008 / An insider leaked to Niki / NYT that Toshiba is about to propose a "ceasefire" to the BDA. In exchange for stopping the production of any and all HD DVD, Toshiba is allowed a voting spot on the BDA board members. The BDA votes yes, Tosh is in minority on the board anyway.
Paramount, un-surprisingly, uses this as an excuse to go back to Neutral with a Press-anouncement with the key point being that "the consumers have chosen, but we will not give up on the HD DVD market at this point". A lot of people note the hypocrisy between this and dumping Blu Ray from one day to the next in 2007. Some think that the $150M contract might allow them to go Neutral under certain conditions, but not Blu Exclusive (until Feb. 09, that is).

13- July 2008, official anouncement by Toshiba, primarily to their shareholders, to explain the change in strategy. Placing the blame of the HD DVD fiasco squarely on the CEO of Toshiba Electronics' shoulders, he anounces his resignation effective end of July 2008.

14- August 2008, It becomes nigh impossible to find a HD DVD players, no software available except on Amazon (used) and Ebay. Some Walmarts still have a few stocks of A2's and A3's unsold, discounted putting the emphasis on "DVD upscale converter". Most people now scoff at the "1080i" only label.
Despite not having moved from their supposed "Neutral" standpoint, neither Univeral or Paramount schedule any HD DVD releases, and haven't been since a few weeks. The HD DVD releases previously anounced have mysteriously vanished from the "Coming Soon" pages. Both Studios just wish that nobody will ask them about it, and trying hard to forget about this "stupid war".
Some Blu Ray Recorders/ Hard Drive combo are scheduled to arrive year end to Europe and the US (already avail in Japan for a while).

15 - September 2008, article in HMM "High Def takes Flight!", anouncing that with new titles regularly in the top sellers spots, HD is really starting to show its strength, and volumes are now starting to look like what they should have been if the war hadn't put everything on hold for so long. The terms "Blu Ray High Def" and "High Def" are getting to be pretty much synonymous for your average person. Some retail vendors still don't know that Blu Ray players can play DVDs, and advise HDTV buyers to buy both a DVD upconverter -and- a Blu Ray player <rolls eyes>.
Samsung and LG anounce that they will pogressively phase out their HD DVD / Blu Ray combos in favor of Hard Drive/BR recorder combos, but no rush as they can play BR anyway.

16- October 2008, Several Cable providers, including Cox, anounce the availability of a HD DVR/ Blu Ray player box. This is hot on the tail of a leaked "good surprise" being prepared by Sony for Xmas 08.
First HD/ Blu Ray recorder combos being sold around $499.

17- Xmas 08 / Sony unveils a new patch (possibly paying extension) for the PS3 that transforms it into a full HD DVR in the US (been avail. for a while in Japan).
Walmart has a $329 Samsung Blu Ray + Hard drive Combo offer.


Here. Maybe just a "tad" on the optimist side, and probably too fast, but that's my 2008 list of predictions for a happy Blu world

I am going to make this alot simpler and say by this time next year there will be no red to speak of.

[HeavyHitter]

Originally Posted by kjack

The CE manufacturers wanted to offer a range of BD players with varying features, and not burden every player sold in the world with features many consumers may not use, yet ultimately have to pay for.

Would you want to see that every HDTV sold be mandatory to be at least 60" and 120Hz to ensure consumers get a proper HD experience? And that LCD technology cannot be used due to its current limitations?

Makes sense. I could not care less about profile 1.1 or any extras - why should I pay for that?

[Pellaeon]

Originally Posted by HeavyHitter

Makes sense. I could not care less about profile 1.1 or any extras - why should I pay for that?

Agreed. While I do now have network connectivity in my basement (gotta love internet Radio on the Pioneer Elite 94 ) I could care less about web features on my player, nor in truth PiP. Both highly overrated features for the general consumer.

I also dont believe Warner delayed the release because of these features missing, I believe there was some sort of "gentlemans" agreement for a timed exclusive on these titles.

If Warner was really worried about "inferior" version where are Blu Rays bit rates and uncompressed audio?